Bare bones friends...bare bones of trading

[neo_hr]

Hi!

I know that ET has definitly gone downright to h*** but i hope ill get some replys from members i deeply respect like Magna, Candle, Qwik, Hitman, Privateer (hes gone I guess), def, ddefina, duff, sorry if i forgot anyone but thats the crowd that was rukling this place whren I came and was actually sharing the knowledge.

Here is an article that I wrote based on my knowledge of TA to some guy. But question at the end is :

HOW DO YOU EXACTLY DETERMINE THE STAGE THE STOCK IS IN? A/D line or OBV are relative not absolute so...

Heres the post!

Thank you all and good trading!
Alex


Theres this stock that a big fund or bank or whatever is watching. They do their fundamental DD (they can access data AND knowledge) on the co and say ok its gonna triple in 6 monts we re gonna buy say 1 000 000 shares. Course, theyx dont wanna drive the price up so they do it .... ah well, you know how the story goes so ill shorten it . OK, Then the charts gives some clues that the smart moneys movin in and we jump in. Then after the price has say doubled the greed kicks in and everyone and their momma is buying the stock driving it into spike blowoff or something.

Of course smart money has already gotten out with their triple price and lets assume theese six months have gone by. So, the folks that are left at the end start selling it and driving the price down. Short sellers kick in and it rallies once more as they have to cover eventually. Finally it drops to fiery pits of hell. Of course smart money is there waiting and buying heavily so the cycle starts again.


***HOW DO YOU DETERMINE THOSE STAGES AND ESPECIALLY ON SHORTER TIMEFRAME? Swingtrading springs to mind...

 

[Magna]

neo hr,

HOW DO YOU DETERMINE THOSE STAGES AND ESPECIALLY ON SHORTER TIMEFRAME?

I've seen many accounts of the Stage 1 - Stage 4 cycle of most stocks, but I generally find they're easier to eyeball after the fact. When in the middle of things, unless they are extremely cooperative, these patterns just aren't so evident and tend to chop around, reverse when least expected, etc. depending on earnings, sectors, and the overall market. That's why I tend to look at relatively short timeframes, and all my plays range in duration from minutes to a couple of days at the most. I wish I could see the overall picture accurately enough to predict the longer runs, and be willing to withstand the necessary drawdowns, but it just doesn't suit my style so I stay with what works for me.

Keep searching neo_hr as there have been many discussions on swingtrading and I'm sure there are some methodologies that give you an edge in those arenas. Good luck.