Barclay's bank says "head for the hills"

[musclemoney]

Quote from Deadwood:

No, that still wouldn't pass the accuracy test, sorry.

You might say, historically there has never been a period covering X years where stocks have underperformed bonds and cash.

The key being any statement made pretaining to a variable event containing the word "always", must be incorrect. That's why those prospectus' you give out say past performance does not guarantee future results.

You may think this is being nitpicky, but people who bought C or GM or a lot of other stocks 10 years ago know it's important. As does someone who bought SPY 8 years ago.

Never and always are two words that clearly shouldn't be used when attempting to predict the future. Unless one wants to say "you never know". or something to that effect.

You said this: "You might say, historically there has never been a period covering X years where stocks have underperformed bonds and cash."

Then said: "Never and always are two words that clearly shouldn't be used when attempting to predict the future."


And, I don't "give out those prospecuts' as I'm doing Performance-Based Advisory work, requiring Investment Advisory Agreement. Good talking with you.

 

[Jayford]

Quote from Aaron Copland:

The US will massage the data, so they don't have to raise. That only helps banks and harms everyone else.

Replace Bernake is the answer.

Yeah, they have been doing this on inflation for years now. Imagine what real US growth would have been in the past year with realistic inflation numbers?

Bernanke isn't the problem imo. He inherited an impossible situation, and did the right thing with BSC, which had to be tough. I think other FED dudes would be just as conflicted, unless you just kill the FED altogether, but I am not sure what the answer is.

 

[Jayford]

Quote from Landis82:

Very true.
And with the BIGGEST BULL in America now giving-up on the U.S. stockmarket
( Larry Kudlow ) yesterday, it really gives one something to ponder . . .

No f**king way!

I bet he lasts all of 3 days on this call. He is PAID to be bullish. I used to listen to the guy in the early 2000's and he NEVER lost the faith during the tech meltdown. Lost investors an unimaginable amount of money.

If he is still a bear in a week, I'll eat my socks. No I won't, but I'll burn em. Easy to say since I only wear flip flops.

I wonder if this is why stocktrad7r has been shy lately. When he bothers to argue for the economy, it is always right out of the Kudlow playbook.

 

[Deadwood]

Quote from musclemoney:

You said this: "You might say, historically there has never been a period covering X years where stocks have underperformed bonds and cash."

Then said: "Never and always are two words that clearly shouldn't be used when attempting to predict the future."

You just insist on proving my first point that like most fianancial sales people your an idiot. don't you?

If you don't have enough reasoning skills to understand the difference between the past and the future I feel sorry for your customers. Of course, one can speak with certainty about what has happened.

For example, if I roll a die 3 times and it comes up 2 each time I can say I have never had a roll that didn't come up 2. That doesn't mean if I keep rolling that I'll always get 2s.

 

[musclemoney]

Quote from Deadwood:

You just insist on proving my first point that like most fianancial sales people your an idiot. don't you?

If you don't have enough reasoning skills to understand the difference between the past and the future I feel sorry for your customers. Of course, one can speak with certainty about what has happened.

For example, if I roll a die 3 times and it comes up 2 each time I can say I have never had a roll that didn't come up 2. That doesn't mean if I keep rolling that I'll always get 2s.

Hey keep it down! The regulators will get us. You said "never" and "always" again. Just messing with ya!

Btw, I'm not a salesperson. I get paid a fee for performance. A salesperson gets a commission upfront for a product/investment which means the broker gets paid whether or not the investment does well.

I'm not with "the big boys," anymore. Independent.

I'm up ytd in all Client Portfolio's, but wonder what the rest of the year will look like with inflation not being addressed. The Fed wants to save the asses of "the big boys" apparently by not tightening 50bps like he should have last week.

 

[musclemoney]

I have a strict money management discipline, but will bend a little here though. How about "equities typically outpace bonds and cash?"

If it sounds bad here, then I don't want that for my Clients either, so it might need to be above? You can help me fine tune this. I explain the use of equities in their portfolio and why with the above statement. I like to keep it simple, but at the same time disclose the fact that they can lose all of their investment, and there are no guarantees. (they cringe on that one) I believe they'll be pleased with their portfolio results, and if not, I would would offer to help them fill out transfer paperwork to another Advisor. Some Clients move, and decide to change, but I'm fortunate to have the Clients I work for. No one has left over poor performance.

I also didn't say I don't like cash right now. I've been 30-40% cash ytd on average. (thank God!) That can change to 100% equities by Investment Policy Statement at any time. But, I don't think that time is near.

 

[sprstpd]

Quote from Jayford:

Bernanke isn't the problem imo.

He certainly isn't helping any. With inflation running at 7.5% (http://www.shadowstats.com/), and the Fed foolishly setting rates absurdly low, no wonder commodities are skyrocketing. Don't tell me oil would be at $130+ if the interest rate were even close to being reasonable. Who controls the interest rates in this country?

It is time to stop bailing out failing companies (a temporary band-aid) and think about the future of this country. Capitalism only works if you let it destroy the stupid and mismanaged corporations and banks. If you let everyone survive, then there is no penalty for foolhardy risk taking. Bernanke is fully responsible for letting this charade continue.

 

[gnome]

Quote from sprstpd:

".. Bernanke is fully responsible for letting this charade continue.

He may be responsible for more than that. The Fed has been increasing M3 >20%/yr lately.

What's up with that? Do they WANT to destroy the $USD? Do they WANT to cripple most Americans with high inflation?

To what end? To "come to our rescue" if we'll give up even more of our individual freedoms and Constitutional rights?

Is this the mechanism for tuning the USA into an enslaved police state?

 

[wutangfinancial]

Quote from Deadwood:

Just another classic example of the pathetic stupidity of the average financial advisor.

yep, most financial advisers are retarded. They help clients slightly underperform the market, what a service. They lack any edge, by definition, as they all use the same retarded allocation strategies and the same myopia....

Also, why does everybody think the fed has the power to control inflation? The federal reserve is a small player in the market for money, whose global price is the world interest rate. The fed controls only a small piece of the 2 Trillion dollars traded daily via the discount rate....but this is the wholesale rate, not the real market rate. Don't get me wrong, the fed. has contributed to global money supply growth, but they're far from the most egregious offender. Emerging markets have been over heating for sometime, and even the more conservative middle eastern banks could not stop double digit inflation rates over the past couple of years.

So where's inflation coming from? A lot of new wealth creation, with not enough capacity to create output for all the new demand. An activist central bank can screw things up, but they can't "control" things.

 

[Illum]

I dont agree with many posters arguing to raise rates. If they raise rates the market would collapse, unemployment would skyrocket. We are in serious trouble but raising rates would be the nail in the coffin. Refer to 1929

Demand destruction, moderately rising unemployment, tougher lending is our way out of this mess. No need to raise rates and destroy the banks in favor of the American people, the banks are going down raised rates or not.