By now you are asking yourselves as I am if we are in a rally then why are we going down?Well throw a near collapse of Bank Of America in price from $10 to $5 and a sickening slide in JP Morgan and State Street, throw in a big miss by Microsoft and the first layoffs in mass since before the tech bubble... add a Timothy Geitner delay... and ask yourselves... what the hell are we doing anywhere near DOW 8,000?
Yes we are but scraping the bottom of the range where it has paid to go long recently; if the above mentioned panic didn't do the trick add the recent housing news & unemployment claims... well what will?
A recent study has shown that if every financial stock out there goes to ZERO the DOW would lose a total of 300 points. Think we have rebalanced enough yet?
Since I'm in the game of inventing names lately, I'd like to throw a bit of " Predictive Analysis " or PA(tm ~stoney), into the mix.
Monday we should see the birth of Aggregator Bank of USA! And ladies and gents you might be reading the words of the Aggregator bank president! I understand from Obama's people that I am in the mix. This is great because I have been aggregating my wife's debts for so many years- I have it down... you want to talk about paying after 25 days and STILL getting your Amex points!! I'm the man... And as the head of Aggregator I'll work every day to amass bad debt... the more far flung the better... but I'll also take a lot of that BBB stuff too! And your first born.
Also Monday is a bit of huge economic info no one in looking for. The Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators... oh stoney anything leading is bad news are you crazy? Well maybe not, most won't know that in the last report which was Nov reading reported in Dec amazingly 4 out of 10 Leading Indicators were UP. The positive contributors â beginning with the largest positive contributor â were real money supply, the interest rate spread, manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods, and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials.
If these four positives go south on me once again this market will have broken my heart. But what if we throw two more to the upside? Would Mr Forward looking market begin to realize we've crossed the half way point of the recession and are ready to come down the home stretch. It's happened before folks, it's just usually interest rates are going up... think about those TIPS.
Some more mini factoids of hope-
> ISM report business activity 40.6 higher than the Nov report... in Nov it was 37.3. This report came out last Tuesday.
In the durable good break out. Oct saw just a drastic number down 8.5% November was better in the above report down 1.5%... is it safe to say even with the worst Christmas this number will be positive Monday? Some of the sectors that were helping in Nov were important for the tech stocks:
+ 12.5% computer products!
+ 5.7% Info Tech
Corporate tech spending had begun again! But it's all gloom and doom, we don't hear much about any hope. So it's DOWN DOW 194 and all looks lost. The neckline's have been broken and swivel points too... and yet here we are bouncing around the bottom without much thrust.
A nice three week rally I had thought we were in...
and we still can be- it is imperative that we come back strong today, have a big Banking announcement from the White House Monday AND a relatively strong Conference Board Report and confirm Geitner mid week... if this happens, 3 triggers, the mother of all short covering in the banks should ensue and stocks that have showed benign relative strength this week will outpreform.
Stay tuned for the BRS Report! ~ stoney
Yes we are but scraping the bottom of the range where it has paid to go long recently; if the above mentioned panic didn't do the trick add the recent housing news & unemployment claims... well what will?
A recent study has shown that if every financial stock out there goes to ZERO the DOW would lose a total of 300 points. Think we have rebalanced enough yet?
Since I'm in the game of inventing names lately, I'd like to throw a bit of " Predictive Analysis " or PA(tm ~stoney), into the mix.
Monday we should see the birth of Aggregator Bank of USA! And ladies and gents you might be reading the words of the Aggregator bank president! I understand from Obama's people that I am in the mix. This is great because I have been aggregating my wife's debts for so many years- I have it down... you want to talk about paying after 25 days and STILL getting your Amex points!! I'm the man... And as the head of Aggregator I'll work every day to amass bad debt... the more far flung the better... but I'll also take a lot of that BBB stuff too! And your first born.
Also Monday is a bit of huge economic info no one in looking for. The Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators... oh stoney anything leading is bad news are you crazy? Well maybe not, most won't know that in the last report which was Nov reading reported in Dec amazingly 4 out of 10 Leading Indicators were UP. The positive contributors â beginning with the largest positive contributor â were real money supply, the interest rate spread, manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods, and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials.
If these four positives go south on me once again this market will have broken my heart. But what if we throw two more to the upside? Would Mr Forward looking market begin to realize we've crossed the half way point of the recession and are ready to come down the home stretch. It's happened before folks, it's just usually interest rates are going up... think about those TIPS.
Some more mini factoids of hope-
> ISM report business activity 40.6 higher than the Nov report... in Nov it was 37.3. This report came out last Tuesday.
In the durable good break out. Oct saw just a drastic number down 8.5% November was better in the above report down 1.5%... is it safe to say even with the worst Christmas this number will be positive Monday? Some of the sectors that were helping in Nov were important for the tech stocks:
+ 12.5% computer products!
+ 5.7% Info Tech
Corporate tech spending had begun again! But it's all gloom and doom, we don't hear much about any hope. So it's DOWN DOW 194 and all looks lost. The neckline's have been broken and swivel points too... and yet here we are bouncing around the bottom without much thrust.
A nice three week rally I had thought we were in...
and we still can be- it is imperative that we come back strong today, have a big Banking announcement from the White House Monday AND a relatively strong Conference Board Report and confirm Geitner mid week... if this happens, 3 triggers, the mother of all short covering in the banks should ensue and stocks that have showed benign relative strength this week will outpreform.
Stay tuned for the BRS Report! ~ stoney
