Bank Runs! What's Going On? - Patrick Boyle
- Thread starter The_Krakenite
- Start date
What, you actually expect an armageddon from all this? As if that's even remotely possible? If it were Goldman Sachs or Chase that went bankrupt, then yeah I would be scared as hell. But SVB? Don't be a puss.
What, you actually expect an armageddon from all this? As if that's even remotely possible? If it were Goldman Sachs or Chase that went bankrupt, then yeah I would be scared as hell. But SVB? Don't be a puss.
the GFC was foretold by hsbc’s americas unit in Feb 2007.
So are you equating the current situation to the 2008 subprime crisis, which was GLOBAL in scale? Exactly what fallout can we expect to see from SVB collapse (in comparison to 2008 subprime crisis)?
A good ELI5 Twitter thread on held-to-maturity (HTM) bond portfolio
EllioTrades actually put out a video a half hour ago that makes it clear for my fractional banking smooth brain
The reason the Fed and others are in a panic to bail out SVB is because if they do not bail out SVB and their depositors... tomorrow morning, every single person who has an account at the regional banks, niche banks, will move their funds to the big banks tbtf
Which is why First Republic is having a bank run
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I've learned more about reading and understanding a bank's balance sheet in the last 48 hours than I ever thought I'd care to do.
I think there will be a handful of banks that go up nicely tomorrow as PM's and the various etf's that by design are geared to buy them, rotate out of the dogs and into the solid ones. These guys have spent all weekend digging through the latest 10K's and quarterly's of dozens of the bigger regional's so you know they now know what's up.
I did that with Fifth-Third and their balance sheet is rock solid. Their "hold to maturity" items, while down, barely make a dent in the bottom line of shareholder equity. Every depositor they have could demand their money, and they would have no problem with liquidity whatsoever.
The only fly in the ointment I could find, and again reading and understanding the intricacies of a bank's balance sheet is new to me... but... and I could be way off on this by calling it a "fly in the ointment"... but they seem to have a lot of exposure to commercial real-estate. I worry about that sector, but aside from a few rust-belt states, they are in good areas. So that's the only part I didn't like. From a T/A standpoint, just using the chart, I think worst case scenario would be they could hit $26.70 if the sell-off persists. But if it doesn't, and folks that know more than me aren't concerned with their CRE exposure, this one will bounce nicely.
FITB--> $30.34
What's that
look like...I don’t know. Clearly the fed saw something given the news flow tonight. I’m saying that it’s too early to say it’s not systemic.
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->>The Ides of March?
What is it about 3/10?
Edit... and oh and btw... 3/10/2000 was a Friday too.
And the very tippy-top of the naz bubble.
fwiw
->>The Ides of March?
What is it about 3/10?
View attachment 308717
Edit... oh and btw... 3/10/2000 was a Friday too.
And the very tippy-top of the naz bubble.
fwiw
Good grief. Look at the difference in volume and point difference between the last one and the previous 2. "V" and "Y". Quite stark!