If Buffett offer is rejected, regulator may step up
N.Y. department may push similar plan if bond insurer situation gets worse
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
Last update: 6:30 p.m. EST Feb. 12, 2008Print E-mail RSS Disable Live Quotes
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- If Warren Buffett's $800 billion reinsurance plan is rejected by bond insurers, a leading industry regulator may end up pushing a similar solution, a person familiar with the situation said on Tuesday.
Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway proposed reinsuring $800 billion of municipal bonds currently guaranteed by three of the world's largest bond insurers, Ambac Financial , MBIA Inc. and Financial Guaranty Insurance Co. See full story.
But Buffett said on Tuesday that one of the insurers has already rejected the offer and Ambac said later in the day that the plan isn't in the interests of all its policyholders.
However, if the situation gets worse, bond insurers may have no choice.
If current efforts by the New York State Insurance Department to stabilize the $2.4 trillion industry fail, the regulator may propose a similar plan to Buffett's, in which bond insurers' steadier muni businesses are separated from their more troubled structured-finance business, the person said, on condition of anonymity.
The New York regulator, headed by Superintendent Eric Dinallo, quickly granted Berkshire a bond insurance license late last year and invited Buffett in January to analyze bond insurers' muni portfolios, the person explained.
The department's current focus is on banks and brokerage firms that are big counterparties to the bond insurers. The regulator is trying to encourage these companies to inject new capital into specific bond insurers to prevent them from losing crucial AAA ratings.
But if those efforts don't stabilize the business, the department may pursue a contingency plan similar to Buffett's, the person said.
That idea was echoed by a major critic of the bond insurance business who has been shorting, or betting against, MBIA and Ambac shares.
"If the bond insurers turn Buffett down, as I expect they will, regulators will step in and do it themselves," Bill Ackman, head of hedge fund firm Pershing Square Capital Management LP, said during a presentation on Tuesday.
Indeed, Berkshire's proposal was put together with the support of the New York State Insurance Department, according to Ajit Jain, a reinsurance executive at the company.
"We are ready and willing to lend our reinsurance support to the municipal side of the house, and in fact had set out in a letter to the New York Superintendent of Insurance a concept that we believe would address the needs and concerns of main street America's municipalities," Jain wrote in a Feb. 6 letter to MBIA's bankers at Lazard Ltd. . MarketWatch obtained a copy of the letter.
"The Superintendent has no objection to our approaching you with this proposal," Jain added.
Still, he said that Berkshire isn't going to reinsure the structured-finance side of bond insurers' businesses, which is the source of the industry's problems.