BAILOUT? - New York Insurance Superintendent watching bond insurers, may intervene

Heres ackman loss estimate for abk and mbi
file is Final_Open_Source_Model_Letter.pdf
http://www.yousendit.com/transfer.php?action=batch_download&batch_id=Mmd0UXVuQzMzeUxIRGc9PQ

about $12b for each and thats the conservative estimate.
whos going to pick up the check?I'm betting shareholders pay first. back to $0 target for both these stocks. with no tax money coming down the pipe anytime soon only Ross can screw up this one, but ackman must have scared him after today
 
you gotta love the guys at warburg pincus who threw $1b at a financial black hole

"The executive says Warburg's long-term investments in MBIA suggests that the private equity firm, while certainly hoping that big guarantor can emerge from the turmoil, realizes its MBIA investment is just as good dead as it is alive. The company can be profitable in runoff, the process in which it collects payments on its existing portfolio and underwrites no new policies, the source says."

hmm no, if the CDO market loss estimates or ackman loss estimates are anywhere near accurate there is no a penny in book value, plus its likely they believe the lying management that told them they have all these future premiums coming down the pipe because they had such good underwriting standards, when the premium disapears warburg will throw up
 
Quote from Daal:

Heres ackman loss estimate for abk and mbi
file is Final_Open_Source_Model_Letter.pdf
http://www.yousendit.com/transfer.php?action=batch_download&batch_id=Mmd0UXVuQzMzeUxIRGc9PQ

about $12b for each and thats the conservative estimate.
whos going to pick up the check?I'm betting shareholders pay first. back to $0 target for both these stocks. with no tax money coming down the pipe anytime soon only Ross can screw up this one, but ackman must have scared him after today
More...


Frankly the biggest news today may have been from Oppenheimer's piece and Merrill Lynch who clearly defined their exposure! THIS IS WHAT THE MARKET HAS BEEN WAITING FOR!

another 2-3bil writeoff for MER? lol bring it on!


The only other downside risk to this market is the non related subprime stuff that ABK MBI hold. Here is where we may see the regulators step in to protect bondholders.


But overall it looks like we may see this market pop once the stocks(ABK MBI etc) are finally burned at the stake by the rating agencies.

Bring it on S&P ,Fitch ,Moody's.


The stocks(ABK MBI etc) will be a question as shareholders fight to protect themselves from shrts and regulators.
 
if she is right and there is no systemic risk then that might just seal the deal on these companies, treasury can't step in and dinallo would have to take over once losses started to mount. I'm still wondering how on earth mbia scaped fitch's axe, the fact that they dont rate channel re might be the reason
 
Quote from Daal:

if she is right and there is no systemic risk then that might just seal the deal on these companies, treasury can't step in and dinallo would have to take over once losses started to mount.
More...

I believe Dinallo can step in anytime in the name of BONDHOLDERS. He said as much on Mad Money a while back.
 
mbia 10q
"MBIA continues to believe that the balance of the mark-to-market losses are not predictive of future claims and, in the absence of further credit impairment, the cumulative marks should reverse over the remaining life of the insured credit derivatives. Additionally, the mark-to-market does not affect rating agency evaluations of MBIA's capital adequacy, except to the extent of impairments."

someone needs to tell that not to tell the market that the market doesnt matter
 
Spitzer seeks "smart way" to help bond insurers By Joan Gralla



NEW YORK (Reuters) - New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer on Thursday said he and the state insurance superintendent were making "good progress" on a plan to stabilize bond insurers, adding he was being careful not to get ahead of the federal government.



Several bond insurers are struggling to raise capital because rating agencies have told them that otherwise their money-losing subprime plays could cost them the top "AAA" ratings their business requires.

Whether New York's former attorney general, known for aggressively prosecuting Wall Street misdeeds, can now persuade banks and brokerages to agree on a rescue plan has been questioned by financial analysts, who also say the clout of federal agencies likely will be needed.

Asked what New York could do by itself, the Democratic governor told reporters: "We are having conversations with experts ... (We are) making sure we are not going out ahead of where the Fed and Treasury would want us to be."

Spitzer said he and Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo were spending "multiple hours" on their rescue plan, adding the companies' problems did not threaten the U.S. municipal bond market's stability.

Municipal bonds have one of the lowest default rates in the world of less than 1 percent, but many issuers bought insurance because it makes it easier for them to market their bonds.

States, counties, cities and towns have sold about $2.5 trillion of debt to pay for new schools and roads, for example.

Spitzer did not disclose any details of his plan only saying he was crafting a "smart way to recapitalize the bond insurers."
 
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