George Soros, the billionaire investor, on Wednesday told the Financial Times: âI donât think it would be feasible for the US government to organise a bail-out of the monolines right now because it would be an open-ended obligation. But I do think the US and European authorities must ensure the major market makers are able to meet their counterparty obligations. Until you do that, the banking crisis will last. The authorities have to remove this counterparty risk.â
David McCormick, US undersecretary for the Treasury, on Wednesday refused to comment on whether the US government would be willing to organise a bail-out.
Ms Petrou says a state-sponsored bail-out would be impossible anyway. âThere is no way to do that under US law, absent a private sector rescue backed by a âwink and a nodâ of the relevant regulators,â she says.
Even when the US government wants to push through a bail-out, it does not always work.
The US Treasuryâs recent attempt to curb losses from off-balance sheet liabilities that banks held through structured investment vehicles (SIVs) ran aground as it failed to attract enough private sector support. Instead, banks had to bring these SIVs back on to their balance sheets, taking writedowns in the process.
While the government seems unlikely to pump money into the sector and with many banks themselves struggling to raise new capital to cover holes in their balance sheets, other potential private sector investors include private equity and sovereign wealth funds as well as billionaires such as Wilbur Ross and Warren Buffett.
Already, Mr Buffett is starting up a new bond insurer after New York regulators fast-tracked his licence to start business.
Insurers, like most of the worldâs big banks and investors, underestimated the risks associated with complex bonds backed by assets such as mortgages. When the level of foreclosures on risky mortgages rose sharply last year, it fed through to higher than expected defaults on CDOs.
Analysts at RBS estimate that triple-A rated monoline insurers guarantee $305bn of US CDOs and $88bn of non-US CDOs. Concerns about rating downgrades come as a smaller bond insurer, ACA Capital, faces insolvency after being downgraded to junk bond status last year, leading to huge write-offs.
Already, Fitch has taken Ambacâs triple-A rating away from it. Moodyâs and Standard & Poorâs are widely expected to follow unless significant amounts of fresh capital is raised soon.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dd4035f6-c9fe-11dc-b5dc-000077b07658.html