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BAILOUT? - New York Insurance Superintendent watching bond insurers, may intervene
- Thread starter Cdntrader
- Start date
Quote from Cdntrader:
I believe the # is 45 trillion - not 450 trillion.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/11/counterparty-risk-problems-with-credit.html
This seems to be accurate??
So, we're talking 40-50% loss.
i'm really glad I began studying for my series 7 because I have realized that you don't truly understand our economy until you understand the bond market.
Quote from Cdntrader:
if they get a waiver from creditors that they don't have to post collateral then they may be able to reorganize.
A KEY point is that ACA is the ONLY insurer with this type of Forbearance Pact agreement to post collateral "if downgraded" with the banks.
So perhaps there is still time for them to find a workout for the bond insurers as a whole
But really if they dont get some headlines out to this effect ASAP it will be too late. The market will start discounting the idea that these banks will soon be make more statements of losses tied to the likely washout of the bond insurers.
Well Wilbur Ross gave us a headline. Now its time to put up or shut up.
boy, am I a contrarian indicator. I tripled my mbia short on friday after abk downgrade, then baron convinces the entire world to buy mbi and the fed cuts 75. luckly I was scared of a cut and the baron article and reduced the short on the pre-market, scapped part of the 40% squeeze cut but man this one hurt
Quote from Bigpipn:
i've been saying this for weeks now. Thank you for the numbers. where can I read more in depth into the numbers? Are we really talking a 3-5% loss??
I got the numbers from a Jim Jubak story posted yesterday on MSN money. $450T total and $27T net loss if it all comes apart.
Jubak has a video on bond problems on MSN today.
Cdntrader says $45T. I checked Wiki and they say the Bank for International Settlements said $28.8T in 2006 so maybe Cdntrader's numbers are better than Jubak's.
Sorry for the delay. I just got back to this thread a few minutes ago.
Quote from dr. fill:
I got the numbers from a Jim Jubak story posted yesterday on MSN money. $450T total and $27T net loss if it all comes apart.
Jubak has a video on bond problems on MSN today.
Cdntrader says $45T. I checked Wiki and they say the Bank for International Settlements said $28.8T in 2006 so maybe Cdntrader's numbers are better than Jubak's.
Sorry for the delay. I just got back to this thread a few minutes ago.
45T is credit default swaps. Perhaps your are refering to all outstanding derivatives notional amount?
Well there was a bailout meeting after all with the banks and dinnalo.
I believe some capital raising plan was discussed. maybe the banks will fuel some of the middle east money to the bond insurers but clearly the message is that saying MBIA will fail is a little like saying Citigroup or LTCM will fail, the authorities just wont allow it happen, the question lies on whether shareholders will be ignored in the name of saving the financial world and if there is money to be made shorting.
I believe some capital raising plan was discussed. maybe the banks will fuel some of the middle east money to the bond insurers but clearly the message is that saying MBIA will fail is a little like saying Citigroup or LTCM will fail, the authorities just wont allow it happen, the question lies on whether shareholders will be ignored in the name of saving the financial world and if there is money to be made shorting.
Quote from Cdntrader:
45T is credit default swaps. Perhaps your are refering to all outstanding derivatives notional amount?
No, the CDS $450T figure is Jubak"s. Looks like he got it wrong and I passed on some bad info. Still, $45T could be a bit of a problem, but it looks like the powers that be are intervening to avert diaster.
Jubak's article is titled "The Next Big Banking Crisis on The Way" on Jubak's Journal, MSN Money.