Bad Catalyst: If Trump Impeached

HeSaidSheSaid

HeSaidSheSaid

would it put a nail on the coffin of this 10 year bull market?

Election night Nov 8, 2017, DJI popped 11% from 18000 to 20K. Would it drop that much if Trump were to be impeached?

a possible scenario: Republican would lose the house in the Nov election, then Trump would be impeached by the house, market tanked -10% percent, then the Senate acquitted him, then the markets would resume.
 
HeSaidSheSaid said:
would it put a nail on the coffin of this 10 year bull market?

Election night Nov 8, 2017, DJI popped 11% from 18000 to 20K. Would it drop that much if Trump were to be impeached?

a possible scenario: Republican would lose the house in the Nov election, then Trump would be impeached by the house, market tanked -10% percent, then the Senate acquitted him, then the markets would resume.
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First of all you do realize The Market is not The Dow ... alone?

Second Drumpf was elected in 2016. You do realize that as well?

Third DJI didn't go from "18000 to 20k" on either 11/8/16 or 11/8/17 so what exactly are you trying to say?

And fourth you fully qualify to vote for the four time (at least) bankrupt reality star tv again. Congrats. :D
 
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HeSaidSheSaid said:
Election night Nov 8, 2017, DJI popped 11% from 18000 to 20K. Would it drop that much if Trump were to be impeached?
More...

I am not sure where your numbers originate. First the election was Nov 8, 2016 not 2017. Second on Election Day, Nov 8, 2016 the Dow closed at 18,332; the day after the election it closed at 18,589, for a 1.4% increase.
 
HeSaidSheSaid said:
would it put a nail on the coffin of this 10 year bull market?

Election night Nov 8, 2017, DJI popped 11% from 18000 to 20K. Would it drop that much if Trump were to be impeached?

a possible scenario: Republican would lose the house in the Nov election, then Trump would be impeached by the house, market tanked -10% percent, then the Senate acquitted him, then the markets would resume.
More...

IMHO, If Trump were impeached tomorrow, the markets might stutter for a week, then continue grinding up as MP is sworn in as prez. And then if Dems get voted in November, the markets will soar, because there will be the hope that the trade tariffs will be repealed when a Dem president is voted in in 2020 (which, IMHO, is GOING to happen). After all, what other factor has been tamping down this later-cycle expansion? The bloody trade-war fears and how it may slow global growth. Trump and his stupid "me, me, me" issues. *sighs*
 
Dems couldn't beat the 2nd worst worst candidate ever. IMO Pence would be a lock to stay in place but who really knows. Especially because it two years away and annnnnything can happen between now and then.
 
Trump is clueless about economics, there will be a reckoning following his antics to unnaturally inflate everything. We have already seen the largest daily drop in the Dow's history this year.

The only person you have to worry about losing is Steven Mnuchin and some others behind the scenes.

Trump dies or is impeached, Pence steps in and it is all run better. A drop, a rebound and that is that.
 
I would wager "Nary a hiccup."

The market CRASHED when Agent Orange was elected, right up until they realized that there would be unified houses + executive branch, to guarantee tax relief and regulatory reform. That happened at about 3:20am, as I recall it. And BOY oh boy did the buyers come in.

BUT IT WAS NOT TRUMP, it was tax reform.

AND TAX REFORM PASSED. So, "Trumpidiot?" He's yesterday's news. Yesterday was historic: his lawyer testified that he'd performed felony acts with the foreknowledge and at the behest of his employer. AND THE MARKET DIDN'T BUDGE.

That's it.

If either house switches, there will be a downturn, until the market remembers that 1-party democracies are associated with decreased returns, and that non-unified branches tend to produce either *gridlock*, or crisis-responding, legislation. (Meaning: it gets out of the way of business.) We have had our period of *needing* unified government: it has lasted 18 months. By the time we hit the 2year mark???? We'll be better off with a split government. (And the market will know this, and do another Election Night V-bottom: cry "Eeek! Eeek!" and plunge down, and the rip around, straight up, and way past where it started.

TRUMPIDIAN IMPEACHMENT?? NO EFFECT.

((BTW??? Have your passport in good order. If Mother Pence and her hubby end up in de Casa Blanca?? That'd be a great time to scoot.))
 
History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.
- Mark Twain.

The stock market fell 14% over a 2 month span during the Watergate scandal. It dropped about 20% in the months leading up to the Kenneth Star report. I don't think we would see a huge crash like the financial crisis or the dotcom bubble, but I bet we would at least see a 15-20% drop. We saw a 10% drop earlier this year from much less.

I don't think everyone ending up poor as Trump put it. :D I think we would be okay in the long run.
 
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