Backtesting is useless
- Thread starter JCDST1979
- Start date
All your threads so far reek of laziness, if you don't bother reading up on buzzwords, don't bother asking me to feed you information
Well I take issue with your analogy as probably the only guy here who routinely gets into fist fights IRL.
lol, typical? Dudes with backup. The problem (generally) is that they roll up and one or two buddies who get cold feet. Last guy passed me on the shoulder and he simply couldn't live with the ignominy of being flipped-off.
Yeah, you see the realization when they see that the dude has 75lbs on them. It's joyous.
He was a baked (smelled like Sativa) Marine vet (NV VM-plate). Followed me in his Jetta so I led him down a gravel road that leads to our water tower. He pulled the "strapped" BS with his right hand in his hoodie pocket but that failed. Flinched to make me act, and lots of regrets there. Washoe Sheriff drove by and asked me to let him go. His face down in the gravel. Perp told me my wife was in danger (post beat down) so elbow -> sphenoid and nighty night! Cop stated I could go, but was hesitant. However, he had heard the threat made to my wife.
His brother stayed in the car and called 5-0. Made up some BS to the cop.
My son was there and he's 16 (15 then). Let me express what an attitude adjustment it is for teens when they see someone they live with defend themselves.
"Yes sir, no sir." "May I go to the beach, dad? I'll be home early"
Fast forward to Late May. I am getting my kid's snow tires changed out at Les Schwab. Dude is sitting in the Les Schwab with a mask on. Comes up to me and apologizes. Lessons learned.
I learned that one of these scenarios ends with the dude actually strapped with that right hand in the hoodie. Promised the wife "no more."
I'm not. I don't think that the concept of backtesting that I know can help me find a profitable strategy. Maybe I'm just ignorant.
JCDST1979,
I have a good question for you please.
What do you think can help you find a profitable strategy(s)?
Probably.
What's your actual experience in the market? Do you have practical experience or only book knowledge? Have you ever back-tested anything at all? Do you have access to highly detailed datasets of the market(s) you're looking at?
Back-testing is just as much about discovering what doesn't work as to what does work. Answering one question usually gives 10 new questions. It's a matter of problem solving.
The truth is that the market is full of patterns which repeats themselves. These patterns may or may not resemble what's presented in popular books. They may be based on price patterns or they may be statistical patterns which can't be easily identified using charts alone.
Roughly speaking - every day is a variation of a common theme and there's only so many in a given market. For example today was an Up Day. Yesterday, too. Monday as well.
Back-testing/back-checking and endlessly studying your chosen market is the key to actually learning your market as it is. For most people and especially the lonely retail trader this takes years. Eventually, the market becomes a familiar place and to some degree predictable.
I never believed the markets to be random and early on found proof they weren't, so for me I decided the pursuit was worth it, although it's possible I would have chosen another path if I knew how demanding this was.
PS: While I subscribe to the school of 'predicting' there's other successful traders who merely 'follow price' instead. At the end of the day - they're predicting too, IMO.