Backed up the truck on SPY PUTS pre-meeting

Its not what I believe, its about price and what we know.

We see price on the S&P having trouble breaking through 875. We know at 2pm there is a great probability for a gap down as is the case during many fed days in the past.

The FED cant drop rates lower. We already know whats in their Beige Book. We know they will make every attempt to pump. Price has rallied and stopped up until this point based upon what we know.

How much downside is possible on a day like this? In the past, price has gone below the day's opening on many occasions. Opening was 856 for today.

How much upside is possible? I dont see too much upside and would get out of the trade with a humble loss.

Quote from MrDODGE:

Do you truely believe they are not going to take this opportunity to pump the market some more?

Good luck!
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Part of the reason why I read this board is to gain insite as to the strategy you just described. The other reason is to be a troll and somewhat entertaining.

Im old fashioned and just go with what has worked in the past. Like I said, when I was going through a full service broker in the 80s this strategy was employed all the time and so I just kept using it throughout the years to protect longer term swing trades.

There is no mention nowadays of insuring a longer term trade with calls or puts.

As for the commissions, the TZA trade wasnt a daytrade, but a longer term swing.

Quote from captain_trips:

why not just go long calls? since that is the synthetic strategy you are describing (you must have a compelling answer to justify the excessive commissions - I'm at the edge of my seat awaiting your response)
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What I find strange about today, is that the market has actually trended quite abit already...usually there is a flat line prior to the Fed announcement.

Can't help thinking it is a buy the rumour, sell the news scenario.
 
I read this board to fade sentiment and undoubtedly you're the best fade here.

You've started thread after insipid thread about shorting, tripling up on inverse funds and buying puts as the market week after week ramps higher. You either don't trade at all or if you do it's small because NO ONE with skin in the game can persistently and stubbornly hold a view that's been so wrong and not get clocked for size. You bought em the whole way down and you're selling them the whole way up. I'm sure you consider yourself an outside the box thinker but fact is you've been 100% with the crowd. I can assure you very few buyers are bullish the economy. Instead the longs have recognized that every clown in America is short and hence the squeeze is on.

Your 1980's options via a broker story only makes you look even more like a piker tool. Don't you know that long stock against long puts is the SAME EXACT POSITION as just being long a call at your put strike? No shit that your stockbroker eagerly asked you for an "insurance" ticket. You were the easiest money he ever made. Now twenty years later for those who fade you there's an equal money making opportunity.

Look at the bright side. Philanthropy is Christ like. You'll be blessed with eternal paradise...


Quote from Port1385:

Part of the reason why I read this board is to gain insite as to the strategy you just described. The other reason is to be a troll and somewhat entertaining.

Im old fashioned and just go with what has worked in the past. Like I said, when I was going through a full service broker in the 80s this strategy was employed all the time and so I just kept using it throughout the years to protect longer term swing trades.

There is no mention nowadays of insuring a longer term trade with calls or puts.

As for the commissions, the TZA trade wasnt a daytrade, but a longer term swing.
More...
 
Look at this chart and the high of the day on the S&P.

2009-04-29_spx1.png
 
Pabst,

You revealed your hand. Bad form.

You think Im an idiot, a piker, yet you read my posts and they irrate you. You just spent 20 minutes composing a post in reply to some guy you know and suspect of being a troll. You want to trade our money yet you get upset at some random guy on the internet who you have never seen, met or know from a hole in the wall. You keep reading these internet posts and they effect the way you think and your emotionality.

Whats going to happen when you have our money and you start getting upset at some unknown on the internet? In a poker game, you cant reveal your hand, but you just did. Maybe thats why you need $500 a month to teach us how to trade...


Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

I read this board to fade sentiment and undoubtedly you're the best fade here.

You've started thread after insipid thread about shorting, tripling up on inverse funds and buying puts as the market week after week ramps higher. You either don't trade at all or if you do it's small because NO ONE with skin in the game can persistently and stubbornly hold a view that's been so wrong and not get clocked for size. You bought em the whole way down and you're selling them the whole way up. I'm sure you consider yourself an outside the box thinker but fact is you've been 100% with the crowd. I can assure you very few buyers are bullish the economy. Instead the longs have recognized that every clown in America is short and hence the squeeze is on.

Your 1980's options via a broker story only makes you look even more like a piker tool. Don't you know that long stock against long puts is the SAME EXACT POSITION as just being long a call at your put strike? No shit that your stockbroker eagerly asked you for an "insurance" ticket. You were the easiest money he ever made. Now twenty years later for those who fade you there's an equal money making opportunity.

Look at the bright side. Philanthropy is Christ like. You'll be blessed with eternal paradise...
More...
 
This trade didnt work out the way I thought, but it did work out. I honestly thought there would be a crazy selloff after the announcement. There was a selloff, but it took a while. There should be further downside from this point forward as we just reached the swing high on the chart at 882.

Thank you Pabst for reading all of my posts in great detail and with such scrutinity. Its nice to know you follow my posts and take so much of your time in replying to them.

This trade was from evilspeculator. He has been grinding higher through this bear along with me and is not always right. His charts have changed many times along with my own. He is not always right, however, as we learned with the guys at Lehman and Bear Stearns, we are not always right.
 
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