‘Back up the truck and buy, buy buy,’ because there is no risk, says MUFG economist

T

trader99

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/b...-says-mufg-economist-2019-12-13?mod=home-page

I hate to call tops and avoid doing this. But if it's on the cover of Marketwatch and so "obvious" and so easy to make money, then I feel like it might be a contrarian indicator. Not saying today or Monday is the top. But we might be near one.. ??

For my trading, I don't really care. I just daytrade in and out and don't really have a long-term view. Just curious.
 
Close to the ultimate dot com top the same comment about backing the truck up was made on marketwatch in regards to an IPO. That IPO flopped & a few weeks later the market was in a free fall with the bid dying than making a big gap down - doing this a few times each day.
 
trader99 said:
For my trading, I don't really care. I just daytrade in and out and don't really have a long-term view. Just curious.
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I care w.r.t. my retirement. As the market climbs higher and higher, I move small chunks of money to more risk-adverse investments. If it keeps going up, I'd like to be 60ish% in some sort of cash or cash equivalent before the election. I want to catch the ride up, but I also want to have a margin of error during the inevitable downturn. Remember it wasn't more than a year ago that we saw 1000+ point drops. If I miss the Trump pump in 2020 I won't really care because if there's anything trading has taught me being able to sleep at night is more important than catching a rocket ship.

As for trading, I don't really care either. I have fairly strict risk management so if I blow through my risk percentage I'll just go cash and stop trading for a while.
 
Doesn't marketwatch have sensationalist headlines everyday, always? Within the next few days there will be one telling me gundlach thinks we are heading for the biggest crash since the fall of Rome.
Plus it says 'economist.' Not sure why anyone would waste their time reading this garbage.
 
The Fed is pumping like crazy, their bal sheet will be at ATHs by mid-Jan. EU, UK and Japan are or will soon boost fiscal stimulus. TBTF banks have trapped the Fed by loading up on T-bonds to front-run QE4, creating an artificial "cash shortage" in the process - Caveman Powell will no doubt live up to his name, launching full QE4 in another few months.

Add that the overblown recession fears (and actual modest slowdown) from this year still haven't entirely faded. Cyclical recovery phase is historically the strongest for stocks.

Add that 2019 proved that CBs will NEVER normalize rates, and all it takes to go from "autopilot" tightening to more QE is a 10-15% selloff in SPX. Every hint of trouble in the markets is met with a shower of printed currency.

The recipe here is for a historic, epic capitulative bull run lasting 2-4 years. The back half of 2020 could be flat into the election, but with Warren mostly out of the picture there's not much political risk from a Dem victory. Biggest risks are a sudden large CPI breakout forcing the Fed to lurch back to tightening, or Trump opening his big mouth.
 
Specterx said:
The Fed is pumping like crazy, their bal sheet will be at ATHs by mid-Jan. EU, UK and Japan are or will soon boost fiscal stimulus. TBTF banks have trapped the Fed by loading up on T-bonds to front-run QE4, creating an artificial "cash shortage" in the process - Caveman Powell will no doubt live up to his name, launching full QE4 in another few months.

Add that the overblown recession fears (and actual modest slowdown) from this year still haven't entirely faded. Cyclical recovery phase is historically the strongest for stocks.

Add that 2019 proved that CBs will NEVER normalize rates, and all it takes to go from "autopilot" tightening to more QE is a 10-15% selloff in SPX. Every hint of trouble in the markets is met with a shower of printed currency.

The recipe here is for a historic, epic capitulative bull run lasting 2-4 years. The back half of 2020 could be flat into the election, but with Warren mostly out of the picture there's not much political risk from a Dem victory. Biggest risks are a sudden large CPI breakout forcing the Fed to lurch back to tightening, or Trump opening his big mouth.
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mostly agree.. but don't forget the 'big mouth' got us the tax cut and numerous deregulation that unleashed the energy production... it also pressured Powell on the cuts.

this is the true goldilock..all the CBs are racing to the bottom together (bottom of devaluation), still plenty cheap labor world wide to keep cost in check, hence no inflation, plus the next tech revolution is just around the corner to boost production by unimaginable scales... life is grand.
 
Specterx said:
.....or Trump opening his big mouth.
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