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riskfreetrading

It is Julky 15, 2009. 2:06PM (Wallstreet time). With Qs at 36.81, I started shorting.

A reason for this shorting is that one of my models is telling me that a top of some sort is around the corner (within zeo to 20 cents away on Qs)

What are my chances? What do you think are the reasons for this trade to be wrong?
 
it probably depends on whether your model is accurate or not and whether there are any external factors that the model does not account for that occur after you place the trade. or something.
 
15 minutes later, the model so far has nailed the top, but I hope market will go a bit higher to enter other trades. We will see what will happen for rest of day.
 
Quote from drukes1234:

I hope we go higher too to get mega short
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:-)

Thanks for the excellent comments. You also seem to be a cool and patient person. I admire that. I have to work on my patience a lot more.

Cheers!
 
Quote from thelost:

it probably depends on whether your model is accurate or not and whether there are any external factors that the model does not account for that occur after you place the trade. or something. [/QUOTE
I never read the news/external factors related to market. Models are based on market data only, and theoretical foundations.

Do you know why market went up the last few days? I do not know, other than buyers more eager than sellers.
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Quote from Ivanovich:

You could be right, but stepping in front of this train is lunacy.
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My systems are giving over 95% certainty of profits at shorting the close.

But of course, there is always that 5%....
 
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