Back testing

[cooltraderabhi]

Hi - I want to backtest the following:

I want to take the price action of January every year and see what it has done for the remaining of the year and take the average of the last 20-30 years.

Is it better to do this in Excel or can it be programmed?

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from cooltraderabhi:

Hi - I want to backtest the following:

I want to take the price action of January every year and see what it has done for the remaining of the year and take the average of the last 20-30 years.

Is it better to do this in Excel or can it be programmed?

The first week of JAN determines the yearly trend. Don't use just PA; use the other variables, too.

It is easy to estimate the breakpoints when and at what value for the entire year come about 1DEC just before EOY. (Google my past graphics). Ooh it looks like its about that time as we speak.

you asked about technique. Print a graph that has a fulcrum at the first of the year. copy the graph.

get out scissors and glue.

Snip the past. invert it. Paste December, degapped to December so that a reverse chron is now going forward.

hold it up to a bright light and trace the next years chart on to the back side of what you pasted.

Keep it simple. use straight lines between break points.

Also transfer volume by using the past year's volumes segment by segment (one segment per brekpoint). To do this you have to just turn over the volume panel but do not invert it.

In the philosophy of history (See Danto, Columbia), this is kind of a symmetry about a point. Columbia is in NYC but do not let a liberal arts aspect of philsophy be beyond you. NYC has gone down the drain from a personal character point of view in the finncial industry and environs (meaning Conn., (a paraphrase of what is being done in NYC)).

 

[cooltraderabhi]

What other variables do you use?

Yes, January tells us more about the yearly trend. Thus, I want to take the average to smooth the data.

Should this be done in Excel?

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from cooltraderabhi:

What other variables do you use?

Always use airplane glue. If anything is left over also use DMI + and DMI- (See Welles Wilder on page 114 and 115 of "Technical analysis from A to Z" by Achelis. Also read Wilder directly if you went to college.

Yes, January tells us more about the yearly trend. Thus, I want to take the average to smooth the data.

Smoothies are dangerous. Switch to breakpoints, trend ends are what makes the world go around. everything inbetween is just making money at a velocity of the slope.

Kiwi smoothies are the xception. Usually they will try to stiff you for an extra buck (Google Red Lion Inn)

Should this be done in Excel?

Only toothbrushes should be named excel. Get a new toothbrush. Name it RDBMS. U*se SQL and read the humer in Haskell books.

Sorry it took so long. I limited my answers to stuff I remember and I'm 80.

Those vergules get me every time.

 

[river]

Quote from jack hershey:

It is easy to estimate the breakpoints when and at what value for the entire year come about 1DEC just before EOY. (Google my past graphics). Ooh it looks like its about that time as we speak.

Jack, I remember one you posted a few years ago.

It was uncannily accurate.

Would you be willing to share your anticipated chart of 2013 with us?

-river

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from river:

Jack, I remember one you posted a few years ago.

It was uncannily accurate.

Would you be willing to share your anticipated chart of 2013 with us?

-river

Your point is well taken.

Here in this thread, I tried to deal with any point in time and do a projection using Danto's philosophy of history slightly enhanced for markets.

2013 is going to be unique in history, however.

We have just gone through the U of Chi declining to deal with a continuing dialog on economics.

39 Republicans just declined to deal with a global treaty for the impaired that the US invented the last time Dole voted before he died.

While I have immunity (it is a technical fact), this immunity facet is not going to be discovered any time soon.

We did go over the cliff a while back. So that is settled.

But there still is the matter of the disappearance of integrity in the financial industry and now our economy. 63 trillion in snake oil is not being handled as yet. 60 minutes just posted on the fake mortgage paper spin industry in large buildings full of people with the same name signing fake papers.

Glacial things are anticipatable. but we are finding new bugs living in lakes under glaciers in the dark, contemporarily.

Science, at long last, is going to enter the financial industry and I am a person with integrity. I will drill holes in slow moving things and show the bugs.

My plan for 2013 is to make a record, with continuity, how building capital really works. It is my belief that at various size milestones and my joining ranks with screwed people who followed the rules and got fouled by Wall Street that I am going to make my first waves that really count.

I gave myself permission to not set deadlines and, it all worked out for me, finally. I'm starting my 80's in January.

We'll stay in touch.

 

[river]

Quote from jack hershey:
2013 is going to be unique in history, however.

Jack, are you referring to market turmoil (volatility) due to political turmoil, especially in the first quarter of 2013?

Or are you alluding to something else entirely?

Quote from jack hershey:
My plan for 2013 is to make a record, with continuity, how building capital really works. It is my belief that at various size milestones and my joining ranks with screwed people who followed the rules and got fouled by Wall Street that I am going to make my first waves that really count.

I look forward to following this unfolding record throughout 2013.

Quote from jack hershey:
We'll stay in touch.

I hope so and look forward to it.

If your record in 2013 of “how building capital really works” takes place outside of ET, I would appreciate an invitation to follow along. (Todd has my contact information, if needed).

-river

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from river:

Jack, are you referring to market turmoil (volatility) due to political turmoil, especially in the first quarter of 2013?

Or are you alluding to something else entirely?

you asked. My orientation is very comprehensive. And I operate with fine tuned portential solutions that would be operational a few years out. A good stepping off point is Alan Simpson of WY. I had my Rocky MTN regional headquartrs in WY for 1/4 of my life. Same town as Upward Bound.

Simpson a week or so ago told the youth of America to get off their asses and bury AARP. I agree. Look at Simpson -Bowles and see where to enhance this scenario woth the following:

Make medicare three parts:

1. a testing program

2. an choice to enter early at lessor pay offs.

3. the planned program.

For SS set up:

1. a testing program

2. A choice to enter early at a lesser payout.

3. Run an aging in by stepping to greater ge periodically.

For How the balance the public and the government use the publis as individual and corps and the govrnment runs Medicae, SS and other.

both tax codes are simple and strait forward. And we increase gas tax by more then S-B (15Cents /gal); stick it to road users. Booze and cigarettes and drugs get taxed up the wasooo.

Here is a simple example I invented to wake up America. An older guy goes to hosp and has 200K of srvices to fix his heart.

today he uses a medicare cash flow to settle the bill. The non AARP lobied view is: fuck him he pays the first 150K and gts a loan for most of the rest. That is whe the "test" ingredient is in use. this joker was tested at 30, 40 , 50 , 60 ; He was fat, he drank alot and he took drugs to fix his BP. HE DID NOTHING HIS DOCTOR TOLD HIM TO DO. As he enters the hospital to have his life saved; he pays at the dorr and takes out a loan from Fanny Mae. No death panels, etc.. we just legislate healthy living or you pay at the door later.

The tax test is the same ilk. If a person is smart and rich, he gets no SS payments later and he smiles as he supports poorer people.

corporations pay less taxes than foreign nation corprations pay in their nations. The US corps bury all other corps everywhere and bring the money to the US and pay less.


I look forward to following this unfolding record throughout 2013.

Me too. What I wrote above is simple to do and is win win and WILL NOT EVEN GET ON THE TABLE. Very lazy young people watching the can get kicked down the road. They have no brains to fend for the future.

Here is the thing. Taxes and bonds are the two ploys of government. Bonds pay for roads and the informatioin age infrasructure. You can't use bonds to pay operaing costs. Operating costs are paid by income from taxes. Pay as you go.

The cliff already happened. Point 2 of this Depression was in MARCH 20XX. Point 1 was JUN/JUL 2006. (plus climax run after that).[color]


I hope so and look forward to it.

If your record in 2013 of “how building capital really works” takes place outside of ET, I would appreciate an invitation to follow along. (Todd has my contact information, if needed).

My job is to take care of business. I feel that someone has to bgin to take money away from the bad guys. So I am going to do it. I'm going to put money to work where it is needed BUT, I am going the have that money "making money too". the rule is that if I extract capital and give it away, I am insisting that it keeps taking money out of the financial indurtry which has no integrity.

Money is a work horse. All my horses are going to keep working this time around. Pension funds did their thing for their members but Wall Street fucked the pension funds. this time Waqll Street gets fucked by pension funds that use my horses.

Information is going to be available for extracting capital form the bad guys. I know I will be investigated and cited. AND then the regulators get a lesson from me and my horses.

things are screwed up; al ot of money is gong to change hands. for me, change in price is how money changes hands. the record is going to show it being extracted from huge pools and going out of the financial industry to work to solve unaddressed problems where the peopl;e with the problem got screwed by following the rules.

-river

At some point I surface and am seen by Main Street and "occupy".

Imformation moves at the speed of light. I worked with Abby Hoffman for years and years. I know what powr to the people means. I worked with Ceasar Chavez for years. I have pissed on tobacco plants and lettuce just like he did. SEE the movie HELP and find out what "eat my shit" really means.

this is he way it will go:

the power structure is not going to get the job done; it failed already.

This means I get to win bigger and biggr through price change of insturments.

If you trhing the mortgage industry is screwed up, just wait. you haven't seen anything as yet.

Ronald Coase (101 yo) is correct and so is Ning Wang. And so is the guy a Princeton. The EMH is OVER. Applied economics and NOT theoretical economics is where the future lies. Fogel has explained to the quants to "start over and get it right this time.

Get a hold of the successor to " the post-autisitic economics newsletter'.

I am intercepting that future with the Holy Grail of price change. The U of Chi has screwed up once and for all in renegging on an Economics dialog.

In two years, the Tea party reminants will be over.

In fours years, 75% of Republicam registered women will still be committed to vote (polls show they are right now) for Hillary Clinton. Women are not going to tolerate this contemporary fuckup that is going on now.

I am not competing with anyone. I am just taking the full offer of the market. The heirarchy is information, power money (top to bottom). I am an information provider and I am using it to GET money to solve problems with WORKERS.

Listen, you will hear the locomotive coming down the line. If you want to WORK, get aboard.

My critics are just unpaid advertizers I use.

 

[gucci]

Quote from jack hershey:



My critics are just unpaid advertizers I use.

Jack... It is getting worse... What a pity... Wasted potential...

 

[Paddler]

Jack for President!