Babak's Journal
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As Dave has already pointed out Barron's has an interesting edition this week. The title in large print is "The Bull is Back!". But more interestingly (atleast for me) is the subtitle:
So say America's upbeat portfolio managers, who see the Dow rising nearly 10% by year end.
So its not Barron's claiming that the bull market is back, but rather reporting on what their 145 Big Money Poll respondents are saying.
What jumped at me were the following three points. First, the Big Money Poll sentiment question:
very bullish 9%
bullish 51.1%
neutral 28.6%
bearish 10.5%
very bearish 0.5%
So 60.1% are either bullish or very bullish and 11% are bearish or very bearish. Hmmmm.
Later they were asked "Are stocks a buy at current levels?"
Yes 69.8%
No 30.2%
Although these guys are 'professionals' their responses don't stray far from regular Mom and Pop investors as the AAII sentiment poll showed on April 24th 2003:
63.0% Bullish
18.0% Neutral
19.0% Bearish
(I'm comparing their responses to April 24th 2003, two weeks ago, as I believe such an article was in the making for more than a few days)
Second, Gustafson (a money manager) says that he has recently taken the cash level of his fund from 20% to 10%. Rodriguez, says that he has taken it from 22% to 9%. I don't know if this is true for them as a group, but if it is, you gotta wonder.
And finally, they pubish the historical BMP's picks/pans performance after 6 months and after 12 months. Gotta give it to Barrons' for disclosure! And their performance? Abysmal. These guys (on average) can't trade their way out of a wet paper bag.
Conclusion? I feel very good regarding my short posture in this market.
So say America's upbeat portfolio managers, who see the Dow rising nearly 10% by year end.
So its not Barron's claiming that the bull market is back, but rather reporting on what their 145 Big Money Poll respondents are saying.
What jumped at me were the following three points. First, the Big Money Poll sentiment question:
very bullish 9%
bullish 51.1%
neutral 28.6%
bearish 10.5%
very bearish 0.5%
So 60.1% are either bullish or very bullish and 11% are bearish or very bearish. Hmmmm.
Later they were asked "Are stocks a buy at current levels?"
Yes 69.8%
No 30.2%
Although these guys are 'professionals' their responses don't stray far from regular Mom and Pop investors as the AAII sentiment poll showed on April 24th 2003:
63.0% Bullish
18.0% Neutral
19.0% Bearish
(I'm comparing their responses to April 24th 2003, two weeks ago, as I believe such an article was in the making for more than a few days)
Second, Gustafson (a money manager) says that he has recently taken the cash level of his fund from 20% to 10%. Rodriguez, says that he has taken it from 22% to 9%. I don't know if this is true for them as a group, but if it is, you gotta wonder.
And finally, they pubish the historical BMP's picks/pans performance after 6 months and after 12 months. Gotta give it to Barrons' for disclosure! And their performance? Abysmal. These guys (on average) can't trade their way out of a wet paper bag.
Conclusion? I feel very good regarding my short posture in this market.
but you can't just say "my short posture".
That's what you said in your original post to this thread, and the market has risen since then.
So you're just going to keep a "short posture" forever until the market finally drops? You had a short posture 2 weeks ago, and you were wrong.
You need to be more specific as to what your parameters are, or you won't be taken seriously here.
Would you take someone seriously who says "I'm bullish!", and continues to say it while the market drops? No!!
You don't make money in this market by being general. You do get laughed at, though.
Just trying to help.
That's what you said in your original post to this thread, and the market has risen since then.
So you're just going to keep a "short posture" forever until the market finally drops? You had a short posture 2 weeks ago, and you were wrong.
You need to be more specific as to what your parameters are, or you won't be taken seriously here.
Would you take someone seriously who says "I'm bullish!", and continues to say it while the market drops? No!!
You don't make money in this market by being general. You do get laughed at, though.
Just trying to help.
Not naming names, but there are some people who don't seem to know what a month is. Is there anyway to ban people from a particular thread? I know I can set particular people on my ignore list, but for the benefit of others it would be nice for EliteTrader to have that capability. A certain person on this thread appears to want to continually defeat the purpose of it.
Back on subject, I am flat at this point in time. I'd like to short, but am biding my time. I am waiting for a gap up that may never come - will see. As always, it will be interesting to see where the market goes.
Back on subject, I am flat at this point in time. I'd like to short, but am biding my time. I am waiting for a gap up that may never come - will see. As always, it will be interesting to see where the market goes.
Quote from Babak:
Conclusion? I feel very good regarding my short posture in this market.
Babak I read you journal very carefully and appreciate the way you post your thoughts and arguments.
I personally try not to have any opinions on the future market direction, just wanted to say that the fact that you bring out pages of reasons for the market to go down, while it's going up shows that deep inside, you don't feel good regarding your short position at all.
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