The 30 day moving average of the NYSE up volume as a percentage of total volume is now in the 0.55 range. This is definitely a huge plus for us shorts because it shows that up volume is around 55% of total volume. This area has been historically a brick wall for rallies. Actually lower levels (anything 0.50+) have also been rewarding. But at this level it can be characterized as an extreme reading. With regards to Helene Meisler of thestreet.com for the data.
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Babak's Journal
- Thread starter Babak
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so I will help you.
wanting to sell on 4/25 was a "sucker sale". Just the fact that those that chimed in, had agreed with you, should have told you that you were wrong. Amd you were WRONG.
The S&P will see 950 before any topping pattern emerges.
So according to your logic you would still be a seller today with S&P at 915??
And when the S&P reaches 950, you will have been squeezed enough (35 points against) to cover. And you will have a LOSS!
My advice is to wait for 950 and then sell. By then you'll have flushed the "wise guy" shorts out, like yourself.
Shorting ain't easy, and FEW can do it consistently well.
JJ
wanting to sell on 4/25 was a "sucker sale". Just the fact that those that chimed in, had agreed with you, should have told you that you were wrong. Amd you were WRONG.
The S&P will see 950 before any topping pattern emerges.
So according to your logic you would still be a seller today with S&P at 915??
And when the S&P reaches 950, you will have been squeezed enough (35 points against) to cover. And you will have a LOSS!
My advice is to wait for 950 and then sell. By then you'll have flushed the "wise guy" shorts out, like yourself.
Shorting ain't easy, and FEW can do it consistently well.
JJ
Quote from Jesse J.:
The S&P will see 950 before any topping pattern emerges.
You sound really sure that it is going to get there. Maybe you should load up on margin cause it seems like such a sure thing.
Babak hasn't even said he has sold anything yet - he has said that he is preparing his list to sell. Maybe you should stop putting words in his mouth and let him speak at his own pace. As I recall he is measuring his performance in a month's time. Guess you don't have the patience to let him wait that long before declaring that he is "WRONG."
Quote from Jesse J.:
a new alias ( I wonder who??) tells me Babak isn't WRONG about this thread and its prediction??
I suggest you read again his original post to this thread, check where the S&P was on 4/25, and try to be honest about the facts.
I reread his original post and I reread the post with the following in it:
Just to clarify a few things due to comments above. The call to sell/short was not a day-trade thing. Sure the market tanked today. But it spiked higher just a few days ago. That doesn't mean anything because my time horizon is longer than a day. The real test of the thesis is a month or two down the road.
Sure you can say he is "WRONG" in a month, but I guess you can't wait to judge. If I'm not mistaken, April 25th to April 29th doesn't quite make up a month yet.
Babak says:
Sentiment
AAII -- most recent is 63% bullish (nuff said)
II -- bullish but not extremely so
Hulbert's newsletter metrics -- extremely bullish
JJC if onboard -- generally a good guy to fade
According to Richard Bernstein Wall Street 'strategist' recommend a 65.7% stock allocation (not a typo)
Very low cash levels for mutual funds
Technicals
Dow has not confirmed Transports by surpassing recent high
Sideways and listless trading
Gold in secular bull & again entered a cyclical bull (mid March)
(for more on gold do a search for "Babak" and "gold")
The VIX and its cousin VXN are screaming overbought
ATR of major indices is very low -- a sign of a top
Internals
Nasdaq/NYSE high/low metrics are screaming overbought
Nasdaq/NYSE stocks over long term MA -- ditto
McClellan Summation for both -- ditto
Nasdaq/NYSE adv/dec -- ditto
Fund Flows
TrimTabs/AMG report significant pick up in mutual fund inflows
VERDICT: SELL
Let me know if you don't know how to read. This is simple english , though.
quote from dgabriel:
"He's has a position trade in mind, up to several weeks."
I have a trade in MIND too, and well, it may happen in several weeks, or several months. Furthermore, it may go against me, and since I've been so vague and not given any entry and exit points, you can't tell me I'm wrong.
is jesse j. the idiot that said we would be at 950 by tuesday or wednesday on another post...funny when he makes a correct prediction he's talking all kinds of shit, but when he's wrong no where to be found.....very classic of people that are kidding theselves that we are in bull market...
and the S&P will see 950.
Yes, I said this week, but it was not to be.
Hopefully, next week.
At least I had the grapefruits to give entry and exit points, and stick with them.
Check at what point the S&P was at when I made these predictions, and you will see I have been much more RIGHT and PRECISE than most.
Yes, I said this week, but it was not to be.
Hopefully, next week.
At least I had the grapefruits to give entry and exit points, and stick with them.
Check at what point the S&P was at when I made these predictions, and you will see I have been much more RIGHT and PRECISE than most.
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