BABA: The bear case

Chuck Krug · Nov 20, 2017

Alibaba had reported their amazing "Singles Day" sales figure of $25.3 Billion of fake GMV.
To put this figure in perspective, this year, "Singles Day" GMV came in at just a few billion more than the annual revenue of Sears/K-Mart (140,000 employees and 1,500 locations world-wide)..... again, I'll repeat that..... Alibaba sold, shipped and delivered the annual, global, sales volume of Sears/K-Mart in just one day! ....800 Million orders to deliver! Incredible! Bravo!.....all those guys on the tuk-tuks, scooters and bicycles must be exhausted......

https://deep-throat-ipo.blogspot.be/2017/11/the-blob.html

Chris Mac · Nov 20, 2017

Chuck Krug said:
Alibaba had reported their amazing "Singles Day" sales figure of $25.3 Billion of fake GMV.
To put this figure in perspective, this year, "Singles Day" GMV came in at just a few billion more than the annual revenue of Sears/K-Mart (140,000 employees and 1,500 locations world-wide)..... again, I'll repeat that..... Alibaba sold, shipped and delivered the annual, global, sales volume of Sears/K-Mart in just one day! ....800 Million orders to deliver! Incredible! Bravo!.....all those guys on the tuk-tuks, scooters and bicycles must be exhausted......

https://deep-throat-ipo.blogspot.be/2017/11/the-blob.html

Excellent ! BABA says Yes WE CAN !

CM

viruscore1 · Nov 20, 2017

I've ridden a tuktuk in south east Asia, didn't see them in Hong Kong as much, i find them quite efficient in their environment. I won't, but you go ahead and short BABA. Report back, let us know how it works out for you.
https://www.alibaba.com/showroom/china-tuk-tuk.html

Chuck Krug · Nov 20, 2017

lylec305 said:
I've ridden a tuktuk in south east Asia, didn't see them in Hong Kong as much, i find them quite efficient in their environment. I won't, but you go ahead and short BABA. Report back, let us know how it works out for you.
https://www.alibaba.com/showroom/china-tuk-tuk.html

I don't know what you are talking about. The issue is that it is very hard to verify sales/profit margins/etc.

viruscore1 · Nov 20, 2017

Chuck Krug said:
I don't know what you are talking about. The issue is that it is very hard to verify sales/profit margins/etc.

You mean you can't believe the numbers. Go ahead and short BABA based on your accusations.

Chuck Krug · Nov 20, 2017

Lylec> Are you long and nervous?

Scataphagos · Nov 20, 2017

Looking at the price chart... IMV says, "no bear case to be made right here".

Chris Mac · Nov 20, 2017

Scataphagos said:
Looking at the price chart... IMV says, "no bear case to be made right here".

Neither a bull case !
You don't buy close to overbought historical highs

.

CM

Scataphagos · Nov 20, 2017

Chris Mac said:
Neither a bull case !
You don't buy close to overbought historical highs .

CM

Disagree. Bull case "intact" until either "topping guess at exhaustion" or sufficient breakdown. Neither at this time.

Or perhaps I'm reading your post incorrectly.... are you saying "buy to close" on a short position? If so, the short was wrong and still probably is.

Chris Mac · Nov 20, 2017

Scataphagos said:
Disagree. Bull case "intact" until either "topping guess at exhaustion" or sufficient breakdown. Neither at this time.

Or perhaps I'm reading your post incorrectly.... are you saying "buy to close" on a short position? If so, the short was wrong and still probably is.

Well, as Baruch, I always sell too early

. I am a trend follower but I won't follow infinitely.
So I prefer take profits with 100% certainty a bit too early rather than waiting for a confirmation of the exhaustation of the bull case and lose a big part of my profits!
My 2 cents.

CM