B Hussein Obama on a downward spiral

[saxon]

LOL...that chart looks like it was created by John Nash and placed in an obscure mailbox to be picked up by some imaginary DOD agents!

Quote from fhl:

A chart from americanthinker.com which could be titled "how a nation was scammed".

 

[Pa(b)st Prime]

Keep in mind Wags I trade pretty much everything-not just index products. I missed a short entry in January by about 13 ES points and never chased it. I was long gold since November until Tuesday. Barely traded at all the past two months. Gold wasn't the home run it sounds like. Sux considering my entry never took a dimes worth of heat and neither did my exit. A real one of a kind trade. But I wasn't at all loaded up and I used options-shorted 700puts and bought 900 calls with the proceeds. Nice considering I did it at a credit but like I say it wasn't enough to put me in Brentwood.

Wags-be honest with yourself. The news has been decent for days. The puke today was 110% on the budget. I'm not saying the economy isn't contracting-I'm saying it's in the market. The budget/tax proposal is horrific. I'm cognizant that markets make lows on this kind of thing but I'm positioned with the idea that SPX may trade under 700 rather quickly. Bottom line: Since the election stocks are down 25%. From the time an Obama win was a foregone conclusion they're down 40%. If you think that's two random, unrelated events passing in the night than more power to ya.....

Quote from Landis82:

Pabst, with all due respect I find it absolutely mind-boggling that you made your first ES trade in several months.

A simple measured-move projects a 140 handle leg down off the February high at 875, which projects 735. And yet you haven't pulled the "trigger" until now, 100 handles off the Feb. highs?

In fact, I'm rather surprised that a former floor trader is actually banging the "drum" for all of these idiots on ET that are blaming Obama for the market continuing to tank . . . And to go one step further and assume that the Dow would have found support at the 9,000 level under a Republican President is absolutely absurd.

You say that the Recession should already largely be discounted by the market?

Are you kidding???

With this banking system, the consumer totally underwater with debt, and worried about becoming consumed by more corporate layoffs and S&P GAAP earnings falling through the $40* mark?

Given that kind of logic, I guess that Wells Fargo would have never fallen from $35 to under $9, or that Caterpillar would not have dropped 45%, or US Steel cut in half since Election Day, or that the Nikkei wouldn't have dropped over 2,000 points, or the FTSE over 15%.

Yeah, right.
And the S&P would still be sporting a 25 multiple from Election Day too (rolling my eyes).

All that tells even the most novice market observer is that the Economy is still contracting.

I'm sorry Kurt, but I wish that you could hear yourself right now.


*S&P Earnings

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/SP500EPSEST.XLS

 

[Pa(b)st Prime]

Quote from Dr. Zhivodka:

Ok...Just so we're clear. You still think by 20 June 09 Barry will have instituted a full scale non-voluntary draft? Is that still right?

Ain't gonna happen that quick UNLESS he gets lucky and a few Pakistani teenagers in suburban Chicago take out a mall.

 

[LEAPup]

Quote from bugscoe:

Obama has already declared war, but it's on his own citizens.

I need to find a line I can stand in and get me some free stuff!!

LOL!!!!!!! So true! Get me some paper towels, toliet paper, soups, and amnesty from my mortgage if you're in front of me in line bro. We can sit at home, and laugh at all the CAPITALIST idiots who founded this Country, and still want to work for a living.

Great post!

 

[Dr. Zhivodka]

So six months before he was elected and you claimed that he would have a full scale military draft implemented in his first six months in office and you knew this because as Chicago Pol yourself you knew kim better than anyone is not quite accurate now?

I see.

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

Ain't gonna happen that quick UNLESS he gets lucky and a few Pakistani teenagers in suburban Chicago take out a mall.

 

[Pa(b)st Prime]

Find the quote where I said "six months". I just searched. Nada....

Quote from Dr. Zhivodka:

So six months before he was elected and you claimed that he would have a full scale military draft implemented in his first six months in office and you knew this because as Chicago Pol yourself you knew kim better than anyone is not quite accurate now?

I see.

 

[Landis82]

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

Wags-be honest with yourself. The news has been decent for days. The puke today was 110% on the budget. I'm not saying the economy isn't contracting-I'm saying it's in the market.

I disagree.

And crude oil tells you as much even with the OPEC cuts, and nat-gas in the middle of winter also tells you that the industrial base/economy just isn't there. In fact, it's getting a bit long in the tooth for a seasonal low.

As for the banking system, I remind you that fair market accounting suggests that the Banks need even TWICE the amount of money that they currently have, and that the "charge-off" rate isn't even no where near where it needs to be to get to the end of this mess. But leave it to people here on ET to claim that the economic contraction is already in the market.

 

[Pa(b)st Prime]

Quote from Landis82:

I disagree.
And crude oil tells you as much, even with all of the OPEC cuts.

American stocks are making new move lows-oil isn't. And given the dollars strength oil is actually hanging pretty tough. Look at a crude chart priced in GBP.

Shanghai is still 20% higher than it's November lows-we're through 'em.

 

[Thunderdog]

This economy is unraveling harder and faster than the market or anyone else anticipated. Everyone knows it's bad, but each economic update and development continues to show just how bad. All factored into the market? Not likely. I guess Pabst firmly believes in the efficient market hypothesis, even in unprecedented times. How convenient for an Obama basher.

 

[Landis82]

Quote from Thunderdog:

This economy is unraveling harder and faster than the market or anyone else anticipated. Everyone knows it's bad, but each economic update and development continues to show just how bad. All factored into the market? Not likely. I guess Pabst firmly believes in the efficient market hypothesis, even in unprecedented times. How convenient for an Obama basher.

I would tend to Agree.

GDP for Q4 was revised to -6.2%
But due to lack of demand for imports, we actually added 3 points . . . thus, we are looking at an Economy that collapsed -9.2% in Q4.

To think that the economic contraction should already be largely discounted by the market ( in these unprecedented times ) is quite a big assumption to make, in my opinion.

Yes, oil has yet to make new lows and the contango has been pared, but nat-gas is trading under $4.00

Shanghai?
Talk about a "rigged" market.
Not a shining example by any means, and this is the market that you choose to use to support your case?

Well, not only did China implement their stimulus plan quite awhile ago, and as I recall it was 3 times the size of our "stimulus" (16% of China GDP) while as we all know our "package" was back-end loaded and only $200 billion of which will even see the 2009 light of day here in the U.S.

And the last time I checked, the Chinese govt. was purchasing domestic shares on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, particularly in the Shanghai Composite.

Not a real good "market" to use as an example, Pabst.