B.A.T. Guerrilla Trading System

[expiated]

DAY TRADING MINUTIA | FINAL POST

Post #8 pretty much wrapped everything up. The "Path × 9" indicator is as close as I'm ever going to get to perfection, and the manner in which I'm using it and the 2- through 9-minute, 16- through 27-minute, 80-minute and five-hour measures works as well or better than anything I've ever implemented.

I'm satisfied that I've done as much as I can to optimize my system, so now I simply need to continue doing the same thing day after day.

 

[expiated]

So, given my limitations and those of the MetaTrader4 platform, here's the best alert indicator I was able to code based on the concluding protocols I began to, and will continue to, use during the last 24-hour market cycle...

 

[schizo]

MINUTIA POST #2:

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Your chart reminds me of the one I used long long time ago. It's a combination of Keltner channel and Bollinger bands. I still have the copy with the notes.

 

[expiated]

I'm satisfied that I've done as much as I can to optimize my system, so now I simply need to continue doing the same thing day after day.

As I've written any number of times, there are several factors or "data points" impacting on currency exchange rates, and it is the consensus opinion of all these various factors that determines what I should do in the final analysis. Decisions have to be made based on what each of these determinants means in light of all the others, and on how they all will affect and impact one another. It is the interpretation of each moving part individually—and of all these assorted components as a whole—that constitutes Numerical Price Prediction.

Accordingly, out of a desire to, as much as possible, never miss a trade opportunity, while at the same time, never execute a losing trade, I looked at my "optimized" charts to see if I might not be able to contrive a plan to come as close as possible to realizing this impossible goal. And in doing so, three factors emerged as being the most important.

The lower panel indicators in the following image represent these factors...

Most important of all, the ONLY time to be long is when the black oscillator is above the center of the price anomaly channel (the bold black horizontal line). Similarly, the ONLY time to be short is when the black oscillator is below this line.

Nonetheless, it is still ONLY permissible to act when the purple oscillator is ALSO above or below the the center of the channel, as appropriate—for these two conditions are the minimum requirements for entering positions (see the opening light green and the opening light pink zones).

Even so, it is better if the purple oscillator is above or below the top or bottom thin purple horizontal line, as appropriate (see the deeper green and pink regions), especially if its overall trajectory has it gaining ground in the desired direction—the direction of the corresponding position.

However, as soon as it starts losing ground, even if it is still above or below the associated purple horizontal line, be on the alert! It is a sign that the asset is losing momentum and might reverse direction soon, if it hasn't done so already! (See the closing light green and light pink zones.)

Best of all however, is if the dark goldenrod histogram too agrees with the first two graphics, especially if its bars are painting beyond the white dot-dot-dash horizontal lines, as is the case in all of the deeper colored regions (except for maybe the last, though it is still very close).

 

[expiated]

From here I need to start practicing the application of all that "minutia" stuff until I'm making consistently accurate forecasts that are almost guaranteed to yield profits.

The first thing I want to do is note the gist of day-to-day progress and how this might relate to the eight-hour price flow.

AUDJPY has been headed south for three days now. So, what I want the pair to do is to climb north up above 96.34 so that I can sell it if and when the eight-hour baseline breaks back to the downside.

AUDUSD has been headed south for three days now. So, what I want the pair to do is to climb north up above 0.6796 so I can sell it if and when the eight-hour baseline breaks back to the downside.

EURGBP has been headed south for two days, but price action is so haphazard that any directional decision will need to be made based on the eight-hour measure and faster. Anything slower than that cannot be trusted at all.

EURJPY has been headed south for three days now. So, what I want the pair to do is to climb north up above 155.72 so I can sell it if and when the eight-hour baseline breaks back to the downside.

EURUSD has been headed south for three days now. So, what I want the pair to do is to climb north up above 1.0986 so I can sell it if and when the eight-hour baseline breaks back to the downside.

GBPJPY has been headed south for three days now. So, what I want the pair to do is to climb north up above 179.63 so I can sell it if and when the eight-hour baseline breaks back to the downside.

GBPUSD has been headed south for three days now. So, what I want the pair to do is to climb north up near or above 1.2672 so I can sell it if and when the eight-hour baseline breaks back to the downside.

USDCAD has been headed north for three days now. So, what I want the pair to do is to climb south down near or below 1.3283 so I can buy it if and when the eight-hour baseline breaks back to the upside.

USDCHF began heading higher during the last 24-hour market cycle, so I am likely to try entering long positions as price comes out of any kind of major pullbacks.

USDJPY has spent two days taking an extremely indirect path north, so I am likely to try entering long positions if and when price comes out of any kind of major pullbacks.

 

[expiated]

AUDJPY has been headed south for three days now. So, what I want the pair to do is to climb north up above 96.34 so that I can sell it if and when the eight-hour baseline breaks back to the downside.

The eight-hour measure would not climb dramatically, so the trigger to go short came when price was rejected at the 96.19 level.

USDJPY has spent two days taking an extremely indirect path north, so I am likely to try entering long positions if and when price comes out of any kind of major pullbacks.

Unfortunately, I missed the AUDJPY opportunity. But fortunately, I was monitoring my charts when I saw USDJPY bouncing off a 141.86 support level. The profit target was the corresponding resistance level at 142.08. (At this point, there is no long-term bullish play given that the 30-minute price flow is currently bearish.)

 

[expiated]

I was monitoring my charts when I saw USDJPY bouncing off a 141.86 support level. The profit target was the corresponding resistance level at 142.08, seeing as how at this point, there is no long-term bullish play (given that the 30-minute price flow is currently bearish.)

USDJPY returned to the 141.86 support territory, so I re-entered a long position as the rate bounced out of this zone, and am now waiting for it to hopefully hit my profit target at 142.14 rather than stop me out at 141.84.

 

[expiated]

AUDJPY has been headed south for three days now. So, what I want the pair to do is to climb north up above 96.34 so that I can sell it if and when the eight-hour baseline breaks back to the downside.

From here I need to start practicing the application of all that "minutia" stuff until I'm making consistently accurate forecasts that are almost guaranteed to yield profits.

The last few hours of observation have led me to conclude that additional practice will not be required to determine if the application of all that "minutia" stuff needs adjustment. The "stories" painted by all the graphics (from my perspective at least) accurately painted for me what was going on as things unfolded in real time, so that I can go ahead with my plan to "simply...continue doing the same thing day after day."

 

[expiated]

The release of the USA's ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS Job Openings numbers has offered this 24-hour market cycle's third opportunity to cash in on USDJPY...

This is a great example of why I prefer a "guerrilla" type approach to trading (where you can reap multiple gains covering the same ground over and over again) as opposed to a buy-and-hold position style of investing, where it is almost inevitable that there will be periods of drawdown.

 

[expiated]

Wednesday| January 3, 2024 | 12:00 Noon PST

So basically, it's your contention that you can best make money day trading if you interpret your charts in the following way...

To get the gist of the intraday price flow, conceptualize it as 16-, 27- and 30-minute price range channels varying anywhere from 0.11% to 0.18% deviation.

Then track fluctuations within these domains of possible values—these probability fields in which rates are most likely to find themselves—using the 2¼-, 6 and 8½-minute (fanning) baselines. (These measures will suggest when price might be taking off from launch pads or arriving at landing sites—departing from beachfronts or docking along riverbanks—in other words, when to enter and exit positions for maximum effect.)

Slower measures can also highlight areas where the statistical probability of support or resistance levels occurring is considerably above average, such as the 80-minute and five-hour price range envelopes; but it is the 2¼- through 30-minute measures that will ultimately decide the direction you should regard as the most likely path price might take next.