B.A.T. Guerrilla Trading System

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FOREX DAY TRADING MINUTIAE:
Saturday | December 23, 2023

I am no longer looking to refine the components of my system. I have settled on the importance of eight, 16 and 80 minutes as the key measures to my approach to day trading, and now simply wish to record how I apply the use of these settings so I can identify what works best and throw out what doesn't work at all, which is why I have returned to this "Biblical Approach to Trading Guerrilla Trading System" thread...

 

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MINUTIA POST #1:

If the 80-minute price flow is headed in one direction, and price veers off in the opposite direction to the point that it reaches the 80-minute baseline or a "far" band of the 80-minute price range channel at 0.10%, 0.22% or 0.35% deviation, be prepared to enter a position in the direction of the dominant trend as soon as candlesticks begin to exit the pullback—especially if the rate is ALSO in proximity of or beyond a "far" band of the 16-minute price range envelope at 0.8%, 0.12% or 0.16% deviation.

In fact, if the rate is NOT in proximity of or beyond a "far" band of the 16-minute price range envelope at 0.8%, 0.12% or 0.16% deviation, then pass on the opportunity to enter a position at all, given that there are not enough factors optimizing the statistical probability of the trade leading to a favorable outcome for you.

 

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MINUTIA POST #2:

If price veers off in either direction to the point that it nears, reaches or exceeds the upper or lower band of the five-hour price range envelope at 0.60% deviation, be prepared to enter a position in the direction of the central tendency as soon as the eight- and/or sixteen-minute baseline(s) begin to hook back in that direction—especially if the rate is ALSO in proximity of the "outer" band of the 80-minute price range channel at 0.22% or 0.35% deviation.

 

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MINUTIA POST #3:

During bullish price flows, enter long positions at the troughs of eight-minute waves and exit at the crest/zenith of the waves OR at the upper band of the 16-minute price range envelope at 0.8% deviation.

Conversely, during bearish price flows, enter short positions at the crests of eight-minute waves and exit at the trough/nadir of the waves OR at the lower band of the 16-minute price range envelope at 0.8% deviation.

This setup implies that the first scenario's insistence that candlesticks be in proximity of or beyond a "far" band of the 16-minute price range envelope at 0.8%, 0.12% or 0.16% deviation is NOT always necessary.

 

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MINUTIA POST #4:

When the intraday price flow is decidedly bullish or bearish, enter positions on the back side of a sloping (or possibly neutral) 16-minute baseline and try to exit at the opposite band of the 16-minute price range envelope at 0.8% deviation.

 

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Sunday, December 24, 2023
DAY TRADING MINUTIA | POST #5

Price Action vs. The Seven-minute Baseline

The above measure suggests that, generally speaking, the maximum distance price is willing to separate itself from the seven-minute baseline (as conveyed by the associated lower-panel oscillator) is defined by the upper and lower bands of the price anomaly channel at the 0.874 and -0.874 levels.

Accordingly, if one is in a trade position and the oscillator tags either one of these benchmarks, is is probably a good idea to go ahead and lock in whatever profit is being offered at the time.

Short-term bullish runs are likely in progress if and when the oscillator clears the blue 0.277 level (where price typically or often executes short-term reversals) up to the 0.684 to 0.874 levels.

Short-term bearish runs are likely in progress if and when the oscillator clears the red -0.277 level (where price typically or often executes short-term reversals) down to the -0.684 to -0.874 levels.

 

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Tuesday, December 26, 2023
DAY TRADING MINUTIA | POST #6

Price Action vs. Deriv.com

Taking the previous information and analyzing it in light of USDJPY's price action—keeping in mind everything I can concerning what's already been written...

When you're using the Deriv platform/system for trading, believe it or not, your best bet is to trade in the direction of the 2½- to 3-minute price flow whenever it MATCHES the trajectory of the 7- to 8½- (or 9-) minute baseline(s).

Yes, the latter measure(s) give you the gist of the direction of IMMEDIATE price flow, with the faster measures tracking short-term reversals/fluctuations, often occurring at the upper or lower band of the 8½-minute price flow envelope at 0.02% to 0.03% deviation.

For the gist of the direction of the more general (intermediate) intraday price flow, look to the 16-minute price flow channel at 0.03% deviation. This it the first measure that begins to define reversals in the 7- to 8½- (or 9-) minute baselines, rather than the shorter-term reversals/fluctuations traced by the 2½- to 3-minute moving averages.

For reversals in the 2½- to 3-minute and/or 7- to 9-minute baselines as liquidity/volatility increases, look to the 20-minute price flow channel at 0.08% deviation; and beyond that, the 27-minute price flow channel at 0.14% deviation.

So, what happened to the 40-minute measure?

It appears to no longer be relevant when looking to take advantage of this degree of precision. Evidently, you're not interested in the longer-term price flow(s) other than to define likely reversal levels for the shorter-term measures; which means you're looking at the 80-minute channel at 0.35% deviation, and the five-hour channel at 0.60% deviation.

(The moves you're cashing in on take place faster than can be measured or captured by any of the slower baselines, including the 40-minute moving average and beyond.)

 

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YEAH! I LIKE this!​

 

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Thursday, December 28, 2023
DAY TRADING MINUTIA | POST #7

Key Measures

Yeah...no...I haven't been looking at the seven-minute channel so much anymore...but yeah, the 16-minute baseline is the measure whose immediate direction I'm most concerned about instead, with the 2½- to 3-minute and 7- to 9-minute moving averages helping to clarify matters by means of their positional relationship with this graphic.

So no, I don't need the 20-minute baseline anymore, because 16 minutes tracks the price flow more closely. Sure, it's prone to somewhat "momentary" shorter-term fluctuations, but that's why I look to—not twenty minutes—but rather, the 27-minute baseline for a more stable measure and a truer picture of where price is "ultimately" headed eventually (probably).

This is why the 40-minute baseline is no longer needed either. If I'm interested in concerning myself with what might happen THAT far in the future, I might as well simply rely on the 80-minute and five-hour price flow channels.

Two things I DO want to note however is that I probably shouldn't expect surges to continue without a respite much beyond the 80-minute envelope at 0.35% deviation, or the 16-minute channel at 0.27% deviation, so this is where I want to be ready to lock in my profits. As for pullbacks, they appear to pretty much restrain themselves to the far side of the 20-minute envelope at 0.08% deviation, or when price action is more radical, to the far side of the 27-minute channel at 0.14% deviation.

(These parameters are more specific than those listed in Post #1.)

They can also be used reliably to trade via the Deriv.com platform rather than the suggestions offered in Post #6.

 

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Friday | December 28, 2023 | 12:30 AM EST
DAY TRADING MINUTIA | POST #8

Theoretically, you only want to be in long positions when candlesticks are forcing, pushing or shoving the upper band of the proprietary "Path × 9" indicator (channel) upward; and in short positions so long as candles are forcing the indicator's lower band downward. (See the bold black diagonal lines below.)

However, I'm almost sure this would not be a very practical way to trade in that you would be jumping in and out of positions almost constantly. Also, in considering diagonal lines C, H and K, you're looking at examples of trades that would be so short-lived, they probably wouldn't even cover the spread. So, how would you avoid these situations?

Well, for one thing, in analyzing the other graphics (which have been omitted above), it would seem that there's no problem remaining in positions so long as the two- and three-minute baselines continue to progress in the desired direction, or at the very least, are no worse than neutral. (On the other hand, if they begin to reverse in the opposite direction, you might want to exit with whatever profit is available, if any).

Moreover, you only want to be long if and when both the six- and 16-minute baselines are sloping upward, or short when these two moving averages are both on a southbound trajectory. This will tend to keep you out of positions that are probably not going to last too long. (By the way, the proprietary channel pictured above is most closely approximated by a standard 6-minute simple moving average envelope.)

P.S. It is not necessary to include other "fast" indicators on the chart, such as the seven- and nine-minute baselines, though the slower measures DO remain (i.e., the 16- and 80-minute price range envelopes, along with the five-hour envelope at 0.60% and 1.35% deviation).