B.A.T. Guerrilla Trading System

[expiated]

Saturday / March 26, 2022

My plan for tomorrow is to begin applying the Biblical Approach to Trading (BAT) which I call "Numerical Price Prediction" in a manner that will enable me to use the NADEX platform to generate an exponential amount of growth in capital via an extremely small initial trading balance. However, I will simply be intraday trading rather than guerrilla trading, but have returned to this "old" journal so as not to have to create a new one.

The purpose of the journal going forward will be to evaluate/analyze the more nuanced trades involved in this endeavor. For example, though the basic idea will be to trade in the direction of the 16-hour baseline, entering positions when price is located to the "far side" of the associated price range, will it make sense to do so even if the slopes of the four-hour and 90-minute baselines (two other key measures) are angled in the opposite direction? Or will the stats ultimately reveal that in such situations, these two measures should take precedence?

Given that statistical probability is at the heart of this system, I'm going to need clarity on these kinds of questions (i.e., the math/numbers) and will therefore be keeping track of outcomes here to compile the odds of various combinations of factors leading to profitable decision making.

 

[Overnight]

Saturday / March 26, 2022

My plan for tomorrow is to begin applying the Biblical Approach to Trading (BAT) which I call "Numerical Price Prediction" in a manner that will enable me to use the NADEX platform to generate an exponential amount of growth in capital via an extremely small initial trading balance. However, I will simply be intraday trading rather than guerrilla trading, but have returned to this "old" journal so as not to have to create a new one.

The purpose of the journal going forward will be to evaluate/analyze the more nuanced trades involved in this endeavor. For example, though the basic idea will be to trade in the direction of the 16-hour baseline, entering positions when price is located to the "far side" of the associated price range, will it make sense to do so even if the slopes of the four-hour and 90-minute baselines (two other key measures) are angled in the opposite direction? Or will the stats ultimately reveal that in such situations, these two measures should take precedence?

View attachment 281055

Given that statistical probability is at the heart of this system, I'm going to need clarity on these kinds of questions (i.e., the math/numbers) and will therefore be keeping track of outcomes here to compile the odds of various combinations of factors leading to profitable decision making.

Welp, you win the ET "Trader-with-most-active-journals-at-same-time" award, issued never.

Your last name is tenacity. Good luck.

 

[expiated]

During this situation from Friday (see below) a buy was suggested due to the fact that (1) candlesticks were painting below an upward sloping 16-hour baseline, (2) they had made contact with the lower band of the 90-minute price range envelope at 0.30% deviation, and (3) they were bouncing off the three-hour temporal support level as the eight-minute baseline was crossing above the 20-minute baseline...

Price continued to climb for the next two hours, even though the 90-minute, three-hour and four-hour baselines were all headed south.

No sell signal was generated here...

...but it's arguable that entering a short position could have be justified (even though the 16-hour baseline was headed north) given that the 90-minute, three-hour and four-hour measures were all headed south, with candlesticks bouncing off the three-hour temporal resistance level as the eight-minute baseline crossed below the 20-minute baseline. The descent took about two to three hours to complete.

This second buy signal was generated by the same conditions as the first, even though the 90-minute, three-hour and four-hour measures were still headed south...

This time it took about three hours for price to complete its upward journey.

 

[expiated]

Sunday / March 27, 2022 / 1:45 PM

As of Friday's close, USDCHF looked to be setting up nicely for a short position in that candlesticks were painting above a down-sloping 16-hour baseline (though just barely bearish), price was positioned above the 16-hour price range at 0.20% deviation (but had been rejected about three hours earlier by the three-hour temporal resistance level) and most importantly of all, in the last 15 minutes of the session, the eight-minute baseline crossed below the 20-minute baseline...

However, the three- and four-hour baselines are not aligned with all the other measures in that they are both sloping upward, so the question of who will take control will probably not be answered until after the first 24 to 48 hours of next week's price action unfolds.

 

[expiated]

Sunday / March 27, 2022 / 4:20 PM PST

As of Friday's close, USDCHF looked to be setting up nicely for a short position...

Five-minute Price Flow:

Indeed USDCHF came down to make contact with the three-hour support level, but price was rejected there and began climbing higher, to now begin attempting to break above the three-hour resistance level. Moreover, the candlesticks are painting above a presently neutral 90-minute baseline, all of which suggests that the bullish measures are going to win out sooner or later and the pair is ultimately going to head higher as the three- and four-hour baselines eventually pull the 16-hour measure higher.

 

[expiated]

Sunday / March 27, 2022 / 4:35 PM PST

As of this hour, USDJPY looks to be setting up nicely for a long position, even though the 16-hour baseline is still slightly bearish. This is because all other measures are bullish, and even the 16-hour measure was bullish up until the last hour before Friday's close. Consequently, if the 16-hour MA is again angling north by the time candlesticks pull back to the three-hour temporal support level, a buy signal will be triggered as soon as the eight-minute baseline crosses above the 20-minute measure.

 

[expiated]

Sunday / March 27, 2022 / 5:55 PM PST

This first trade of the week (an in-the-money two-hour binary option put contract halfway to expiry) was made based on a slightly bearish 16-hour baseline with candlesticks having been rejected by the three-hour temporal resistance level two hours ago, and price crawling below the 90-minute baseline.

Unless something goes terribly haywire, the contract "should" be in-the-money at expiry.

 

[expiated]

Looking at a number of charts as they currently appear and what price has done in this last hour, I'm not sure that I can trust the 16-hour baseline for the ultimate direction in which price is headed. I have therefore designed a 30-minute chart configuration (rarely have I used 30-minute charts) that includes a 32-hour baseline, which admittedly exhibits extreme lag during trend reversals, and six-hour temporal support and resistance levels in place of the three-hour measures. My plan is to consider both the 16- and 32-hour moving averages when attempting to interpret the true direction in which price might ultimately be headed, and to enter positions following bounces of the six-hour temporal "landmarks" as opposed to the three-hour levels to increase the odds that price isn't going to immediately reverse itself and turn back the other way right after I purchase a contract.

 

[expiated]

USDCAD is very bearish, but right now is headed the "wrong way" (i.e., is climbing north). Consequently, it would seem to make sense to sell the pair if and when price turns south again (having already broken through the three- and six-hour temporal resistance levels) to such a degree that the 20-minute baseline (and possibly even the 90-minute baseline as well) forms a downward hook...

UPDATE: I purchased a put contract based on the above, but because a two-hour option was not available, I did so in my demo account, so this will be a test case for a possibly future strategy (i.e., using an expiry beyond two hours).

 

[expiated]

As of this hour, USDJPY looks to be setting up nicely for a long position, even though the 16-hour baseline is still slightly bearish. This is because all other measures are bullish, and even the 16-hour measure was bullish up until the last hour before Friday's close. Consequently, if the 16-hour MA is again angling north by the time candlesticks pull back to the three-hour temporal support level, a buy signal will be triggered as soon as the eight-minute baseline crosses above the 20-minute measure.

I never got the opportunity to enter a long position, because price never pulled back to the three-hour temporal support level down around 122.00...