Awash's Journal

Quote from peterfigliozzi:



Another way to think about late entries: statistically.

For a single trade, a late entry might sometimes not seem
like a bad thing. But look at all of your trades as a whole:
number of trades, divided by number of points captured.
Each type of trading is different; but let's say the quotient is 1-2 points. This means if you are one point late, you have already lost, statistically speaking. (On the other hand, a quarter point late would not be such a big deal.)

Already lost "statistically speaking" means while you may profit from the trade, giving up 1 point on a method that give you 1-2 points per trade, in the long run, kills you. But a 1/4 point of tardiness would just decrease the profits a little.

So I guess we should all know how late we can enter for the ones we happen to miss (hopefully for potty breaks etc., and not fear, another problem entirely).
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Another thing to consider with regard to late or imperfect entries.
If your trading with a predetermined stoploss of say 2 pts on a perfect entry, then in order to stay within your system, when you miss your entry by 1/4 you also have to adjust your stoploss by 1/4.
For instance if your entry is short at 71 and your stoploss is at 73, and you miss it, and enter at 70 3/4, your stoploss still needs to be at 73, not at 72 3/4.
So not only is your intended profit reduced, but your risk is increased.
In this situation we each need to ask ourselfs, is this trade worth it?

sulong
 
its just my impression awash. it seems like u jump in and out for a +.25 or -.25 whenever u feel like it. i dont see a method to this sorry.
 
Quote from Awash:

Trade#3 ? [Short 1073.25 14:00 EST & Cover 1072.75 14:25 EST] [ P/L: + .50 ]

I entered with good timing on this trade but had no patience!

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Were you following one of your method's exit rules?
From an earlier post they are:

(1) Reversal signal
(2) Sideways price action
(3) lingering at a s/r level
 
Trade #1: price went over 3 pts in your favor and then chopped between 1067.50 and 1068.50. I think an exit at 1068 would have been much better. The same thing happened yesterday as well; price went in your favor and then chopped (time to bail) and you exited on trailing stop getting triggered.

Trade #2: I think this was a good trade. Entry on a lower high, and good exit as well. You need to apply this type of exit to Trade#1

Trade #3: Great entry, but early exit. Looking at the chart, I don't see any reason to exit at 1072.75

-Fast
 
Quote from peterfigliozzi:



Were you following one of your method's exit rules?
From an earlier post they are:

(1) Reversal signal
(2) Sideways price action
(3) lingering at a s/r level
More...

Peterfigliozzi,

As to trade#3, I was following market exit rule#1. I started to see positive divergence on my 1-minute chart (which was a fake out). I still use both charts for entries and exits, however I'm learning to use my higher time frame charts more. I still haven't completely eliminated my 1-minute chart.

Another thing that caused me to exit the trade, it was going on 30 minutes and it took a while to develop. Coming off trade#2, I didn't want the trade to abruptly pop against me. Nevertheless, I still need to be a bit more patient.
 
Well then the system called for the exit. So you are doing yourself a disservice by blaming yourself for not being patient.
Since you followed the rules, the reward is that this result must fall into one of the following two cases:

Case 1: Just one of those unlikely circumstances where the system took you out of a good trade.. gotta live with it. (everyone is vunerable to this.. that's what makes it hard for some folks to follow the rules)

Case 2: One of the many times your system took you out of a good trade... uh oh, better tweak the system.
 
Quote from peterfigliozzi:

Well then the system called for the exit. So you are doing yourself a disservice by blaming yourself for not being patient.
Since you followed the rules, the reward is that this result must fall into one of the following two cases:
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Peterfigliozzi,

I was able to quickly review my trades via Camtasia Live recording and I missed the overall big picture at that time. My market breadth indices were still showing downside movement even though I had one-minute positive divergence.

Today, I won't focus too heavily on my one minute chart as it sometimes produces false signals. Thanks for your input! Since this is my last day trading for the week, I hope to be a bit more aggressive with my trading provided there's a signal.
 
Today was a better day and I’m happy with some parts of my trading and not so happy with the missed signals. I also need to play retracement patterns better but that’s something I’m working into my routine.

Trade#1 – [Long 1065.25 9:30 EST & Exit 1066.25 9:37 EST] [ P/L: + 1 ] Took a pre-market divergence signal but I wanted a quick profit as sometimes these signals aren’t reliable. Good entry and good target & exit.

Trade#2 – [Short 1066.50 10:24 EST & Cover 1067.00 10:41 EST] [ P/L: - .50 ] mediocre divergence signal but it wasn’t going to follow through. Closed because the market got choppy a bit with no clear direction.

Trade#3 – [Long 1068.75 11:20 EST & Exit 1068.75 12:07 EST] [ P/L: 0 ] Tried taking a continuation pattern off a retracement but it didn’t work out well. I was able to exit my position without a loss. Next time I’ll wait until price falls back to the last high and then enter long.

Missed signal: Today I missed a super duper short setup around lunch time. It was the same setup as yesterday.

Trade#4 – [Long 1064 14:40 EST & Exit 1066.25 15:03 EST] [ P/L: + 2.25 ] After missing my short setup I was determined not to miss this long setup. Good positive divergence signal on 3 minute off a double bottom pattern. Good entry but poor exit, I had no patience on my exit as usual but I have a plan for next week to combatant this problem.

Stopped trading 15:05 EST.

For next week I plan to start trading 2 contracts and will exit at different price levels. This should resolve my problem with early exits and patience. I will exit one and let the other one run.
 

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Quote from Awash:

This weekend I was able to reflect on my past trades and I'm looking forward to the next three weeks of trading before the holidays.

I decided to discontinue live trading for the remainder of the year as this will give me the opportunity to focus on my most common errors. I'm also adjusting my system and adding new strategies and setups to complement trend days (later i will discuss in full detail).

All charts will reflect simulated trades!
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