Awash's Journal

Trade#7 – [Short 1029.00 12:16 EST & Stop 1028.75 12:39 EST] [ P/L: + 0 ] Went short again off a mediocre signal but the trend had not changed direction yet. It finally changed direction after my 2nd lower high on %D but I didn’t want to hold the position long enough

Trade#8 – [Long 1029.75 14:59 EST & Stop 1030.00 15:02 EST] [ P/L: + .25 ] Was looking for a change of direction in trend, took first divergence signal and I reset my stop after price moved in my favor.

Trade#9 – [Long 1029.50 15:11 EST & Stop 1030 15:35 EST] [ P/L: + .50 ] This was by far the worst trade of the session for me. Price bounced off support of 1028.25 around 15:05 and turned up with a good divergence signal. I took me six minutes to enter (should have entered at 1028.75 but was a point late). After I finally entered I got greedy and wanted 1031.50. I pulled my order several times after thinking price would just bust through and never got filled. Price turned around and hit my stop. Poor trade management on this one!
 

Attachments

Really weird trading session for me. I executed all long positions today and felt good about it. I have more confidence in going long now but I need to be flexible with resetting my stop because some trades take time to develop.

Trade#1 – [Long 1032.75 10:45 EST & Exit 1031.75 11:00 EST] [ P/L: - 1 ] Took first divergence signal plus my support area confirmed my trade but I should have exited earlier because of increased price choppiness.

Trade#2 – [Long 1031.75 11:15 EST & Stop 1032 11:35 EST] [ P/L: + .25 ] Took next divergence signal but my profit target was too much for that area. Should have reached for a modest amount but nevertheless my stop helped save a loss.

Trade#3 – [Long 1030.75 11:46 EST & Stop 1031.00 12:18 EST] [ P/L: + .25 ] Took the very next divergence signal and this was the one that would change trend direction. I reset my stop and got stopped at 1031. Priced turned out to be in a range so I avoided trading during the lunch hour.

Trade#4 – [Long 1029.00 14:25 EST & Exit 1029.25 14:36 EST] [ P/L: + .25 ] Good divergence signal but there wasn’t much follow through. Just decided to exit!

Trade#5 – [Long 1027.75 15:36 EST & Exit 1028.75 15:43 EST] [ P/L: + 1 ] No divergence signal just strictly a reliable support area. Although this was a risky trade it was worth it considering how far price moved in just a short time. Took a quick scalp for this late in the session.

See below for trades 4 & 5!
 

Attachments

Didn’t trade much today but I wanted to get some valuable feedback about other oscillators I should have at my disposal to confirm immediate trend change. Read my question carefully and give me some valuable feedback if you can. Thanks in advance!

Trade#1 – [Short 1036.00 10:36 EST & Cover 1035.00 10:40 EST] [ P/L: + 1 ] Good divergence signal but wanted to wait for more confirmation after price moved good after ECON data release. A bit late with my entry but that’s a long story. Profit target was just one point!

QUESTION: How can a trend reversal trader reduce the lag time with market breadth indicators like VIX, NZ A/D Ratio & TICK? Or are there other key oscillators I should use to tell me when price will abruptly retrace?

I'm asking this question because I'm a trend reversal trader and I always like to enter at the best price where the trend reversal is at its highest (Sell) or lowest (Buy).

Today I ignored a divergence signal to short at 10:21 EST at a price of 1037.25 because I was waiting on my market breadth indicators to confirm a solid trend direction change (see chart). The signal was clear as day but my other indicators were slowly stalling. One thing that can be to my detriment is taking signals against a strong trend especially after economic news.

Nevertheless, I entered short but didn't get much out of it. Any recommendations on additional oscillators, etc. In hindsight, I probably should have just put the trade on and managed it properly.
 

Attachments

Early on I made some good trades but later in the session I had a lot of mixed signals about my trades in which caused me too much indecisiveness. Market turned crazy later in the session!

Trade#1 – [Short 1043.75 10:06 EST & Cover 1042.75 10:30 EST] [ P/L: + 1 ] Good divergence signal but trade took time to developed, covered for one point.

Trade#2 – [Long 1042.00 10:45 EST & Exit 1043.50 10:53 EST] [ P/L: + 1.5 ] Took reversal divergence signal with a good predetermined profit target.

Trade#3 – [Short 1045 12:39 EST & Cover 1044.75 12:48 EST] [ P/L: + .25 ] Mediocre signal and nothing developed so I decided to cover!

Trade#4 – [Short 1046.50 13:21 EST & Cover 1047.00 13:39 EST] [ P/L: - .50 ] Took signal divergence signal on %D and price quickly moved against me. I didn’t want to be in this trade anymore and just wanted to cover for a small loss to regroup. Price ended up retracing back to my 1042.50 support area.

Trade#5 – [Short 1046.50 15:03 EST & Cover 1047.50 15:24 EST] [ P/L: - .50 ] good signal but trade took forever to develop. I just wanted out to protect my profits.


Decided to stop trading to protect against giving all profits back!

See below for more trades
 

Attachments

I have a couple of questions but first let me thank you for all that you contribute by posting this journal.

I just found your site and used your pivot tables for the first time today. Thank you.

Can you share the program you use to construct the s/r pivot tables? I would like to be able to set up my system early in the am.

Regarding FNM, what was your reaction to the swings in the market and were you able to know real time what was the cause?

Thanks
tt
 
Quote from tt1452:

I have a couple of questions but first let me thank you for all that you contribute by posting this journal.

I just found your site and used your pivot tables for the first time today. Thank you.

Can you share the program you use to construct the s/r pivot tables? I would like to be able to set up my system early in the am.

Regarding FNM, what was your reaction to the swings in the market and were you able to know real time what was the cause?

Thanks
tt
More...

tt1452,

In regards to the Fannie Mae news release I was completely oblivious to what occurred and I didn't know real-time. I definitely learned a lot from today's session.

I don't find it uncommon that big news reports can rock the markets and you can expect it to happen 5 to 6 times a year. Do you remember in March or April of this year when a report came out concerning Osama Bin Laden's sons. The ES moved 15 points in less than 30 seconds. That was incredible and guess what I was long.

More importantly, STOP-LOSS orders are essential in situations like today because it will take you out of the market if price quickly moves against you. Don't ever forget that!

Support/Resistance/Pivot Levels

You can use Excel to prepare the numbers. There are several formulas but I've grown to love the pivot with the opening price.

P = (H + L + C + O)/4

Once you have the pivot it's just math to figure out the remaining S1,S2,R1 & R2. But the most important numbers are the numbers you consider when analyzing prior market & pre-market price activity. You will find those numbers to be the best!
 
How do you find S1,S2,R1,R2 after you find the pivot? thanks.

Quote from Awash:



tt1452,

In regards to the Fannie Mae news release I was completely oblivious to what occurred and I didn't know real-time. I definitely learned a lot from today's session.

I don't find it uncommon that big news reports can rock the markets and you can expect it to happen 5 to 6 times a year. Do you remember in March or April of this year when a report came out concerning Osama Bin Laden's sons. The ES moved 15 points in less than 30 seconds. That was incredible and guess what I was long.

More importantly, STOP-LOSS orders are essential in situations like today because it will take you out of the market if price quickly moves against you. Don't ever forget that!

Support/Resistance/Pivot Levels

You can use Excel to prepare the numbers. There are several formulas but I've grown to love the pivot with the opening price.

P = (H + L + C + O)/4

Once you have the pivot it's just math to figure out the remaining S1,S2,R1 & R2. But the most important numbers are the numbers you consider when analyzing prior market & pre-market price activity. You will find those numbers to be the best!
More...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top