Avoiding misinformation for a beginner

[murray t turtle]

Hi,

I have read, and I imagine there are many more "Hi I'm a newbie, help me find the Holy Grail" messages. I've looked around this board a bit, but the total amount of information is quite daunting.

[a]For example, the idea the efficient market hypothesis makes a lot of sense to me,


but then, so do the folks that say you can't predict the future with technical analysis.

[c] There are folks who say that books are great, and there are folks who say they'll ruin your trading mind.

As for my "trading style", I would say that, being fairly young, I still have a high appetite for risk, but that doesn't mean I want to be foolish......

Hopefully this isn't flamewar bait, but rather helpful in sending me down a better path, knowing that it will still be rather bumpy.

Thanks,
Bryce

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Mr Bryce;
a] If you really believed ''a'' why trade/invest???????????????????????,LOL

Actually TA does not predict, its about probabilities+ plenty of money has been made with low probabilities, NOt a prediction;LOL but true

[c]Why dont you read study all books by Jack Schwager+ make up you own mind ???HINT if you think education -reading is exspensive try ignorance/leveraged ignorance!!!!!

Wisdom is profitable to direct[ a book quote] Tough business; smarter you are the longer it takes, a Chicago trader said[book quote, but true]

 

[Notid]

One thing I've noticed in this thread is that I didn't realize how much of a rabbit hole that point about the efficient market hypothesis was. In fact, it's clear I was naive not only to its truthfulness, but also to its implications, were it to be true.

What I thought was that the efficient market hypothesis was a score for technical analysis and a score against fundamental analysis. I now see that if markets were efficient it would be a score against all analysis.

So I recant my prior statement about the efficient market hypothesis making sense. At the same time, I still see that there are many conflicting views about paths to success in trading. The material presented earlier definitely helps in identifying what I can do to understand what "works" for me.

Thanks again.

 

[Redneck]

I still have a high appetite for risk, but that doesn't mean I want to be foolish.

I am disciplined and wary of thoughtless decisions.

Any appetite for risk is foolish – and will end up biting you in the ass

Side note;

Losing trades are only the very smallest tip – of a rather enormous risk iceberg - lying in wait to sink you

We are risk managers - first..., foremost..., always

I am disciplined and wary of thoughtless decisions.

However disciplined or wary you think you are –you’re not nearly enough of either at this point

Here’s how it’ll manifest

Things will go along swimmingly…. you’ll be thinking – I got this - dum dee dum dee doo doo dee

Then.., the mkt will evolve into a totally unfamiliar and unfriendly-er mistress

It’ll test you in ways.., and degrees you can’t even fathom

Survive those times – then you’ll understand what discipline is - and the level necessary

No need me further wasting your.., or my time trying to convince / explain it – mkt is the best teacher


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As for what to listen to/ read

Trust no one – except – price & yourself

Get your head screwed on straight – “Trading in the Zone” (douglas)

Learn a few PA concepts / set ups – “forex price scalping” (volman) / “reading price bar by bar” (brooks – though his stuff is harder than hell to read)

NOTE: I did not say – try to emulate either author – I said; learn the concepts one / both have written about

Start a journal

The best source…, bar none – fire up a chart and watch it – day in / day out – till price speaks to you

Successful Journey Sir

RN

 

[bone]

The holy grail is that there is no holy grail.

You do the best you can, avoid repeating mistakes, and don't bother picking absolute market bottoms or tops - a sense of hubris and risk adversity will do you well in this regard. Let the deep pockets turn the market for you (and me), take your brief ride on their coat tails, then take your modest profit and wait for the next such opportunity.

Let it be known that some of the longest-lived species on planet earth are opportunistic ambush predators who lie in wait for opportunities ( think salt water crocodile). Note that the predators whose evolution puts them in the position of chasing down prey choose the weak and the sick and the young for food first.

Finally, if you require certainty you're in the wrong line of work - get a government job. Nobody knows wtf is going to happen 5 minutes from now, much less 5 hours or 5 months.