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Avoiding Curve fitting
- Thread starter maninjapan
- Start date
Quote from jack hershey:
I'll post a brief "kit" for you of items that follow from your reference to the hypothesis set above.
I'll work from the results back to the Hypothesis set in a few posts.
Attached is the resourse Excel that was used for the trading this week that I mentioned. This is the list type that was posted in ET for years on a daily basis. This list is a compilation that comes from the group of people who use it.
Regarding the 24,000 trades using inital capital of 500,000 dollars; anyone can simulate the trades. Start with 500,000 dollars and subtract 20 dollars 24,000 times. Try that in real life and see how long it takes to do it. At one trade a day, it is about a century. But the hold was 5 days so that makes it a little longer. OR..... This is just humor...
As you look at the Excel, you see it has no relationship to trading open to open. Successful position trading works on the basis of timing the markets. (See the PVT journal).
The stocks are keeped in an organized manner; see left column with their numeration for ID's. This also lets you know the Universe is not too old in development.
We make up a batting order each Sunday AM. The Excel sheet is used to do this. Three columns are involved. They have names according to function. Four streams of capital each have batters.
To do the batting order for next week, it took a person (a noobie having her first session) doing it for the first time 7 minutes (on Friday afternoon) to look up the trades (6). This means the rate of turns per year for all capital is 75 turns of capital @ 10 plus percent. Under these circumstances it take 8 turns to double. 8 into 75 is about 9.
The doublings of intial capital become:1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512.
Attached is the work done for the week of 11JAN10.
Attachments
Quote from jack hershey:
As you look at the Excel, you see it has no relationship to trading open to open. Successful position trading works on the basis of timing the markets. (See the PVT journal).
The stocks are keeped in an organized manner; see left column with their numeration for ID's. This also lets you know the Universe is not too old in development.
We make up a batting order each Sunday AM. The Excel sheet is used to do this. Three columns are involved. They have names according to function. Four streams of capital each have batters.
To do the batting order for next week, it took a person (a noobie having her first session) doing it for the first time 7 minutes (on Friday afternoon) to look up the trades (6). This means the rate of turns per year for all capital is 75 turns of capital @ 10 plus percent. Under these circumstances it take 8 turns to double. 8 into 75 is about 9.
The doublings of intial capital become:1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512.
Attached is the work done for the week of 11JAN10.
The Universe Excel as you see it is incomplete. Some data is missing. The data is done by completing the IAS mentioned and referenced before.
The Excel is sorted by the column entitled: Date. Date stands for the next time the cycle begins. In scoring terms this is when 0 goes to 7. We know this in advance because it is entered on the IAS.
Since there are more elegible stocks than needed we choose by the column labelled: Rank (it is the column with many digits in a row). Rank's units were explained before as % per day. This is the slope of the RTL of the stock during its long half cycle.
The frequency column is used to advance the "Date" periodically. That is to say, when the Date expires a new date is put in its place the number of days ahead as indicated in the column.
Doing all of this manually is easy and it let the mind grow by doing drills so to speak. As you see, we do what the market dictates. Most people make up an approach where they usurp the market's job instead of letting the market do it's job.
Attachments
Years ago we critiqued Trader666's fiasco back test. And we went further in support of his potential learning process. He ignored both our critique and our learning support. He did one further thing: he failed to report out his backtesting of the additional learning support provided to him.
So here it is, years later, one more time.
Attached please see the ONEPAGER entitled Unusual Volume Corelation Table.
It is a one pager that has all the rules and the set of signals (several colums in 30 minute intervals) for trading PVT.
This is the sheet that was used to get the rightmost columns of the Universe. The Universe has tailored columns for the ENTRY FRV (First Rising volume).
So here it is, years later, one more time.
Attached please see the ONEPAGER entitled Unusual Volume Corelation Table.
It is a one pager that has all the rules and the set of signals (several colums in 30 minute intervals) for trading PVT.
This is the sheet that was used to get the rightmost columns of the Universe. The Universe has tailored columns for the ENTRY FRV (First Rising volume).
Attachments
We have worked our way back from an Excel universe to the batting order to the rules for trading the stocks.
Obviously just a list is needed in real time to pick off the timing during the day for entering the trade and later exiting the trade.
I showed 30 snapshots of the list in "Putting the Pieces Together". They were taken the day after the batting order was prepared.
This attachment has the list and its relation to the batting order for four streams of capital.
Obviously just a list is needed in real time to pick off the timing during the day for entering the trade and later exiting the trade.
I showed 30 snapshots of the list in "Putting the Pieces Together". They were taken the day after the batting order was prepared.
This attachment has the list and its relation to the batting order for four streams of capital.
Attachments
The consideration of the trading cycle was determined in 1957 using the hypothesis set. The concept has been used by four generations of people.
The attachment shows 8 part of the cycle and each one has a score. Intradaybill expressed how software works best by encoding the degrees of freedom in a Boolean manner. So you can see here the 8 parts of the cycle on the cycle and how three degrees of freedom are used to measure the variables associated with the cycle.
P is shown completing one cycle. During this, Volume completes 2 cycles and A/D completes 4 cycles. Thus the variables of the market are in a relationship to one another.
Trader 666 creates a humorous statement continually from his mind. Read it and have a laugh. In his mind there are more entries than exits in scoring some stocks. What are some of the more profound examples (See Buffett, "durable value" on long term cycles).
But in trading the natural cycle there are an equal number of exits for the entries. In the Excel Universe you see these durations in Days under the column entitled Duration. In the batting order list that is how the SELL date is determined from the BUY date. It is done by counting the days (including the buy day as day 1) of the duration to find the calaneder date. Do not include weekends or non market days.
The attachment shows 8 part of the cycle and each one has a score. Intradaybill expressed how software works best by encoding the degrees of freedom in a Boolean manner. So you can see here the 8 parts of the cycle on the cycle and how three degrees of freedom are used to measure the variables associated with the cycle.
P is shown completing one cycle. During this, Volume completes 2 cycles and A/D completes 4 cycles. Thus the variables of the market are in a relationship to one another.
Trader 666 creates a humorous statement continually from his mind. Read it and have a laugh. In his mind there are more entries than exits in scoring some stocks. What are some of the more profound examples (See Buffett, "durable value" on long term cycles).
But in trading the natural cycle there are an equal number of exits for the entries. In the Excel Universe you see these durations in Days under the column entitled Duration. In the batting order list that is how the SELL date is determined from the BUY date. It is done by counting the days (including the buy day as day 1) of the duration to find the calaneder date. Do not include weekends or non market days.
Attachments
to use boolean Algebra you have to use the coefficients of the power series of base 2.
You need to know that any base raised to the zero power is 1. to prove this to your self use power rules and set up a ratio of equal powers and cancel and see the ratio is equal to 1.
we sum the decimal values of the place holders in base 2 to get the decimal equivalent of the analysis of a stock's place in its cycle.
As you saw the turns are 0 to 7 and 4 to 3. As you would also expect the point where acceleration becomes deceleration two of the three terms change. In math this solution is termed "elegant" because of several reasons. The most significant is the symetry exhibited..
Scoring also exhibts the detailed relationships in the supply demand theory. and all the foibles of poor trading reasoning such as early exits and being frozen emotionally.
Trader666 exhibits most strongly the OCD characterisitc of very angry people.
You need to know that any base raised to the zero power is 1. to prove this to your self use power rules and set up a ratio of equal powers and cancel and see the ratio is equal to 1.
we sum the decimal values of the place holders in base 2 to get the decimal equivalent of the analysis of a stock's place in its cycle.
As you saw the turns are 0 to 7 and 4 to 3. As you would also expect the point where acceleration becomes deceleration two of the three terms change. In math this solution is termed "elegant" because of several reasons. The most significant is the symetry exhibited..
Scoring also exhibts the detailed relationships in the supply demand theory. and all the foibles of poor trading reasoning such as early exits and being frozen emotionally.
Trader666 exhibits most strongly the OCD characterisitc of very angry people.
Attachments
The Initial Analyisis Sheet is completed by doing the chart analysis where the stocks evaluated come from a sorting process, Spyder explained this to xburbx most recently in a thread now being destroyed by another OCD of ET, talon's thread.
Quality assurance is used to sort stocks from 15,000 down to 125 or so. EPS and RS and a price range of 10 to 50 begin the sort.
Considerations of float and ownership fine tune the list.
As explained it is automatic with regard to add's and delete's with one click of a button. It is not labor intensive any longer.
Our team divides the list and we have a Universe caretaker. So we are always current and doing the drill of learning to "read" charts and analyze them.
IAS is stored in 3 ring or individul folders and they are kept in carrying cases which are transported in Hummers to designated secret meeting places. Or it is just done in the open and dicussed in workout or dancing training facilities.
Quality assurance is used to sort stocks from 15,000 down to 125 or so. EPS and RS and a price range of 10 to 50 begin the sort.
Considerations of float and ownership fine tune the list.
As explained it is automatic with regard to add's and delete's with one click of a button. It is not labor intensive any longer.
Our team divides the list and we have a Universe caretaker. So we are always current and doing the drill of learning to "read" charts and analyze them.
IAS is stored in 3 ring or individul folders and they are kept in carrying cases which are transported in Hummers to designated secret meeting places. Or it is just done in the open and dicussed in workout or dancing training facilities.
To look at a chart of a stock that is on the batting list requires record keeping on the Daily Analysis Sheet. Here you see how, while holding, a person keeps track of the order of events in an assortment of ways. Formations and trends are handled best by examining the pattern.