Quote from kalzayani:
Nice buy Long term 16 + Target
Seems this Jump might followed by a correction south to 1.00
So maybe some good stops
I doubt that they will stay alive long enough for them to ever finish another clinical trial. They had already lost two partners this year and today Astra-Zeneca pulled the plug on a cardio drug they were working with AVNR on.
Sales from Abreva and Fazaclo will not be enough to pay for even one Phase 3 trial, and they will probably need to have two new trials using the 10 mg quinidine dose, not the single trial the company said they expected they would need "based on conversations with FDA staff" and their "experience with the drug approval process." They can't substitute pharmacodynamic modeling for a Phase 3 trial. Drugs require two successful P3 trials in order to get approved, and AVNR has ZERO Phase 3 trials using 10 mg of quinidine. They hope the drug will work at the lower dose, but they have no human data to base that hope on. The modeling data they have on CYP2D inhibition of quinidine metabolism is from old journal articles using rats. It's all smoke and mirrors.
If you want a hype stock, buy CBLI, at least they have federal funding from the DoD to pay for the drug they're developing.
AVNR had a massive short squeeze from people buying Wednesday. The company made material misrepresentations during the morning CC saying they they "believed" they would need only one more clinical trial for the diabetic neuropathy indication, but the FDA has already told them (which they are allowed to do despite the SPA) that the maximum allowable dose of quinidine is 10 mg, while the trial results they announced last week (begun in 2005) used an unacceptably high dose of 30 mg of quinidine.
I shorted AVNR AH on Wednesday at $5.06 and $5.20. There are no shares available for shorting or i'd short more.
This morning i was looking at the 2.5 puts and oddly enough, the June 2.5s were asking 15 cents, while the May 2.5s were asking 20 cents. I should have grabbed the June 2.5s at 15 cents while they were on offer. Someone else got 40 contracts at that price, which was a buy.
So. It's a long shot now that the daily chart is looking ugly for longs, but i have a limit order in to try to buy 40 contracts at 15 cents but i doubt i'll get a fill.
AVNR will be tied up in litigation over misleading investors duing that CC about needing only one additional clinical trial. The fast money that came will not have the patience to wait around for a clinical trials.
WOW! This is exciting! I got a fill on those June 2.5 puts at 15 cents.
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