AVG daily S&P range

[nwbprop]

I was hopeing that somebody could direct me to the AVG daily ranges for the S&P 500. I read somewhere that it was 1.5% the S&P value. I hope these past 2 months are not indicitive of the rest of the year's volitility. At my level of trading, it is hard to make great money in ranges less than 10 pts. I would like to hear others' opinions.

If i had it my way, i wish we would tank instead of making new highs. I feel this would give us the most volitility as it seems that most people are bullish for the year.


jc

 

[Ditch]

As long as Bush remains in the White House, you'll have to put up with this crap.

 

[waggie945]

Volatility continues to drop, and thus the ranges have dropped.

Check your VIX chart back in 1994 for a historical perspective.

 

[nwbprop]

Quote from Ditch:

As long as Bush remains in the White House, you'll have to put up with this crap.

Could you please give your reasoning as to why Bush being in office leads to less volatility for the overall market. Just curious. thanks.

 

[TheStudent]

liquidity injections tends to dampen volatility - as long as we keep the dollar hose at full blast, vols will be low.

consensus also tends to dampen volatility - read any of the analyst reports in january lately? everyone seems to be sharing the same playbook.

 

[nwbprop]

Quote from waggie945:

Volatility continues to drop, and thus the ranges have dropped.

Check your VIX chart back in 1994 for a historical perspective.

Thanks. I appreciate the guidance. I hope history does not repeat itself like the 93-97 period.

 

[Ditch]

Quote from nwbprop:

Could you please give your reasoning as to why Bush being in office leads to less volatility for the overall market. Just curious. thanks.

It's in the interest of the big money, that Bush gets re-elected, hence the slow grind higher.

 

[ktm]

I track this stuff very closely. The last 3% range day on the SPX was last March. There were periods during the 90s were a 3% range day happened once a year, then they were common for a few years, now back to calmer times.

I believe it has more to do with larger factors than Bush or interest rates. News is more ubiquitous with the web having become so prolific...it's easier to leak things over time rather than get a big shock. There's Reg FD and Fed futures and other contracts preempt interest rate changes better. There are more products to trade and better ways to transfer risk among the big players. There are also curbs and other volatility slowing mechanisms. Regulators do not like volatility. It may make for nice daytrading, but for the public at large, random large swings in the markets don't make for happy investors. As you can see from the runup of the last 12 months, those swings must be to the downside (once in a while) to create the high VIX.

I'm not saying were are calm from here and forever, but I have learned to trade what I see, not what I want to see.

 

[Ditch]

Quote from ktm:

I track this stuff very closely. The last 3% range day on the SPX was last March. There were periods during the 90s were a 3% range day happened once a year, then they were common for a few years, now back to calmer times.

I believe it has more to do with larger factors than Bush or interest rates. News is more ubiquitous with the web having become so prolific...it's easier to leak things over time rather than get a big shock. There's Reg FD and Fed futures and other contracts preempt interest rate changes better. There are more products to trade and better ways to transfer risk among the big players. There are also curbs and other volatility slowing mechanisms. Regulators do not like volatility. It may make for nice daytrading, but for the public at large, random large swings in the markets don't make for happy investors. As you can see from the runup of the last 12 months, those swings must be to the downside (once in a while) to create the high VIX.

I'm not saying were are calm from here and forever, but I have learned to trade what I see, not what I want to see.

The measures you mention have been around for years, so these don't explain the shrinking ranges in the last 6 months or so.

 

[nwbprop]

Quote from Ditch:

It's in the interest of the big money, that Bush gets re-elected, hence the slow grind higher.

Just a few thoughts. I think you are saying that the big money wants to see Bush(Republican) get re-elected. Therefore, if the market goes up, then Bush is much more likely to get re-elected than if we tanked and did not make new highs. Do you think that the smart money can continue this trickle up to new highs until election?

I think making new highs with a lack of real momentum might send this market in for a correction. It really doesnt matter to me. I just want to see some volatility in the market.