Averaging Down the real Holy Grail

Quote from saxon22:

I just replayed friday on the e signal sim using the system (1 contract every 2 points countertrend) and made $1000 for that day. Not bad for a system you could understand in 5 minutes.
More...

Of course it made money on Friday. I would be amazed if it hadn't! Talk about chop--I traded December crude instead!

When it comes to intraday trading of the e-minis, averaging downers will win most days (it will still underperform, but it will make money). It is those other days that are the problem!
 
Quote from smilingsynic:

Of course it made money on Friday. I would be amazed if it hadn't! Talk about chop--I traded December crude instead!

When it comes to intraday trading of the e-minis, averaging downers will win most days (it will still underperform, but it will make money). It is those other days that are the problem!
More...

Obviously you have done the math and have proven that averaging up is the only way to trade successfully. AVK should put his head into a hole and never speak again. He is defying natural law. He might even be Satan himself! I think the next step is asking the moderator to delete this thread on the grounds that it is evil and could contaminate the innocent and very delicate minds of Elitetrader.

Really all the Averaging Up people who cannot stand AVK approach do me one favor STOP POSTING on this thread. I learn a great deal when any successful trader shares his approach to trading.

Cokes:)
 
Quote from saxon22:

What is missing from your equation is that averaging down is super easy and requires very little trading. Example: start at opening and once the price move ____ points (anywhere from 5 for conservative to 2 for aggressive style), continue adding ____ contracts (anywhere from 1 to 5 depending how fat your account is) until you turn a profit of 1 pt. per contract. Once that happens, start scaling out. Most days you will make $$$$. Now, can you teach me how to make $$$$ your way in one paragraph????? If it was so easy your way we would not have 95% of people failing at this. Is your system superior? YOU BET! Is it the right way t trade? YOU BET? The problem is your way is available to 5% of those who try, averaging down could successfully be done bu 50%. So for the masses, I would venture to say that averaging down is a better solution.
More...

Great post. The only part you skipped over that I would like to discuss is the "uncle" point. You discussed how to scale out of a winning trade. Now discuss how to scale out of a trade that never comes back. AVK states that he risks 3.5 times his average daily profit per trade.

Also AVK said he only trades on the side of the trend. He does not play both sides of the market.

Cokes
 
Quote from cokes:

Obviously you have done the math and have proven that averaging up is the only way to trade successfully. AVK should put his head into a hole and never speak again. He is defying natural law. He might even be Satan himself! I think the next step is asking the moderator to delete this thread on the grounds that it is evil and could contaminate the innocent and very delicate minds of Elitetrader.

Really all the Averaging Up people who cannot stand AVK approach do me one favor STOP POSTING on this thread. I learn a great deal when any successful trader shares his approach to trading.

Cokes:)
More...

Laying on the sarcasm a bit thick, don't you think? :p

Do you want me to stop posting because my own propositions are not adequately supported by evidence, or because they make you uncomfortable because you have no good rebuttal?

If I am wrong in my thinking, please point it out, clearly and convincingly, with evidence and reasoning. If this is the "real holy grail," convince me (and others). After all, isn't that why people post: to win friends and influence people (not necessarily in that order)?

After all, only a fool would want to live in a fool's paradise. :)
 
Quote from smilingsynic:

Laying on the sarcasm a bit thick, don't you think? :p

Do you want me to stop posting because my own propositions are not adequately supported by evidence, or because they make you uncomfortable because you have no good rebuttal?

If I am wrong in my thinking, please point it out, clearly and convincingly, with evidence and reasoning. If this is the "real holy grail," convince me (and others). After all, isn't that why people post: to win friends and influence people (not necessarily in that order)?

After all, only a fool would want to live in a fool's paradise. :)
More...

First "holy grail" I think was sarcasm. Secondly all I am saying is you have made your points. You win. Now let this thread be.

And if you are going to keep posting PLEASE stay focused on the authors quotes. Stop generalizing.

Cokes
 
If ADK has at least 4 winners for every 1 loser and his loser is only 3.5 the avg winner it looks to me like he has a winning system. Perhaps the "grail" is not his money management but the entries and exits, ie buying low selling high in a bullish trend.
In all seriousness his explanations do not really sound like averaging down to me but more like scaling in so it's possible that we have a problem in semantics.

Food for thought.

Anek
 
<i>"If ADK has at least 4 winners for every 1 loser and his loser is only 3.5 the avg winner it looks to me like he has a winning system."</i>

Four Winning Trades: +1pt ES = $50 per contract
One Losing Trade: -3.5pt ES = -$175.00

Four wins: +$200
-$4 per rd turn, or +$184.00 before income tax

One loss: -$175
+$4 per rd turn, or -$179.00 gross loss

Five trades = +$5.00 per contract gross profit total overall per ES contract, before taxes

average of one (1) US dollar per contract each trade, average profit before taxes.
 
Quote from austinp:

<i>"If ADK has at least 4 winners for every 1 loser and his loser is only 3.5 the avg winner it looks to me like he has a winning system."</i>

Four Winning Trades: +1pt ES = $50 per contract
One Losing Trade: -3.5pt ES = -$175.00

Four wins: +$200
-$4 per rd turn, or +$184.00 before income tax

One loss: -$175
+$4 per rd turn, or -$179.00 gross loss

Five trades = +$5.00 per contract gross profit total overall per ES contract, before taxes

average of one (1) US dollar per contract each trade, average profit before taxes.
More...

Austin,

Hence the phrase "at least" on my comment. Based on his posts something tells me his winners outweight the losers by more than 4:1 otherwise he is wasting time. In fact, I think he posted he had only two losers this year.

Anek
 
Quote from smilingsynic:

Of course it made money on Friday. I would be amazed if it hadn't! Talk about chop--I traded December crude instead!

When it comes to intraday trading of the e-minis, averaging downers will win most days (it will still underperform, but it will make money). It is those other days that are the problem!
More...


Well, those other days you trade something else, or do not trade at all, or have discipline and after giving away ____ (fill in the blank 1K, 5K, 15K) whatever one deems to be the IT number, you close your trades and take your loss, hoping the next day will be profitable.

BTW last week Wed, Th, and Fri would have made money. As a matter of fact the whole week was doable. I am too tired to see beyond that, but I would venture to say that one could make money all the way back to the 19th. From my recollection, the only 3 days where the market went decidedly in one direction were the 12,15, and 19, the rest, I would venture to say were 1K days for averaging down guys.


Also, I would venture to say that I use "venture to say" entirely too often lately! :D :D :D :D
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top