Average daily profit with $50K account?

Actually no - you can do that with a lot less risk...


I personally find 1.75% risk too high for a trade... and I personally find intraday strategies with an AVERAGE one trade per day too slow.

With mor etrades and smaller risk / trade... the statistics change significantly in favour of the trader.
 
Quote from 1a2b3cppp:

I address both those things.

I address when I exit, which is established before I enter a trade.

And I address why percentage gains don't matter for day traders.

If my account was $100k I'd still trade exactly the same way and make the same DOLLAR profit, yet my percentage would be less even though my performance was exactly the same. The only difference is I would have $50-70k unused margin sitting in my account.



Ok, well I guess as (if) my account grows eventually I won't be so undercapitalized anymore eventually :D

So in your opinion, how big should my account be for trading this strategy, and why? I can currently take between 25-40 consecutive losses before I would be unable to trade this strategy anymore. How much money should I have in my account to do this and why?
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Just tell me what your average max open drawdown is to achieve $450.00

So what are you risking to gain for ease of math $500.00 a day? I am guessing at least double that?

When you get enough historical information there are statistical equations to figure out your risk of ruin and all that good stuff. What you are missing though is a thorough historical track record. Without a large enough sample size this is just wasting time in reality.

What happens if Fin Min Khan comes out and says some more bullshit and all the sudden the dollar massively gains and ES just all the sudden jumps or gaps in the wrong direction? You are totally fucked at that point. Or better yet Big Ben or Thomas Hoenig (rhetoric about raising rates).

Those 3 people have enough power in words to ruin you and your $50,000 in less than 100 milliseconds. I have had it happen to me in the FOREX market, thank god it was just micro. Don't let that happen to a big percentage of your net worth. Not worth it. Decrease your risk my friend, live by the sword - die by the sword.
 
Quote from NetTecture:

Actually no - you can do that with a lot less risk...


I personally find 1.75% risk too high for a trade... and I personally find intraday strategies with an AVERAGE one trade per day too slow.

With mor etrades and smaller risk / trade... the statistics change significantly in favour of the trader.
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Again, depends what your risk profile is.

Under 2% is good, in reality anything under 4% is good depending what your historical stats are etc.

Under 1% would be the best bet though, easier mkt. to accomplish this in would be FOREX IMO.
 
Quote from Algo_Design_Kid:

Just tell me what your average max open drawdown is to achieve $450.00
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I'm not quite sure how to answer that.

When you say "drawdown" do you mean "of a currently open trade" or do you mean "how much my account goes down based on closed trades, like during a streak of losing trades"?

I've heard both of those used as the definition of "drawdown."



So what are you risking to gain for ease of math $500.00 a day? I am guessing at least double that?
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Well for any given trade, the max possible winner is more than the max possible loser. But because I don't use the same "span" for each trade, the actual dollar amount (and number of ES points) varies.

What happens if Fin Min Khan comes out and says some more bullshit and all the sudden the dollar massively gains and ES just all the sudden jumps or gaps in the wrong direction? You are totally fucked at that point. Or better yet Big Ben or Thomas Hoenig (rhetoric about raising rates).

Those 3 people have enough power in words to ruin you and your $50,000 in less than 100 milliseconds. I have had it happen to me in the FOREX market, thank god it was just micro. Don't let that happen to a big percentage of your net worth. Not worth it. Decrease your risk my friend, live by the sword - die by the sword.
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Well, if I was fully in a trade at 9 contracts, the ES would have to jump 111 points to blow my $50k account. I've never seen that happen, even historically.
 
Quote from NetTecture:

Actually no - you can do that with a lot less risk...


I personally find 1.75% risk too high for a trade... and I personally find intraday strategies with an AVERAGE one trade per day too slow.

With mor etrades and smaller risk / trade... the statistics change significantly in favour of the trader.
More...


But if you risk only 1% per trade, you would NOT earn 340k with the Acrary' example, but something around 194k (in 1.75 times lower).
 
Quote from RedRat:

But if you risk only 1% per trade, you would NOT earn 340k with the Acrary' example, but something around 194k (in 1.75 times lower).
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Bu who cares? This is also compounding - which i dont like. Risk goes up way faster than comfort level ;)
 
Quote from 1a2b3cppp:

I'm not quite sure how to answer that.

When you say "drawdown" do you mean "of a currently open trade" or do you mean "how much my account goes down based on closed trades, like during a streak of losing trades"?

I've heard both of those used as the definition of "drawdown."




Well for any given trade, the max possible winner is more than the max possible loser. But because I don't use the same "span" for each trade, the actual dollar amount (and number of ES points) varies.



Well, if I was fully in a trade at 9 contracts, the ES would have to jump 111 points to blow my $50k account. I've never seen that happen, even historically.
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You don't think the ES can limit up/down? It could happen, but you have to prepare for that by always limiting your risk. You will hit that deviation if you are in the market for a long enough time. You obviously know the story about lumber.

I am not saying you are going to get tossed for 111 ES pts but what happens when you are risking 1% of your contract per ES pt?

Do you know when the last time we hit limits? Last year. You obviously were not in the game then. This type of shit happens and when you are undercapitalized and risking more than you should you will pay.

That was one instance in the past 365 days about. Do this for 35 years and let me know how this has all panned out. Odds are heavily stacked against you.
 
Quote from Algo_Design_Kid:

You don't think the ES can limit up/down? It could happen, but you have to prepare for that by always limiting your risk. You will hit that deviation if you are in the market for a long enough time. You obviously know the story about lumber.

I am not saying you are going to get tossed for 111 ES pts but what happens when you are risking 1% of your contract per ES pt?

Do you know when the last time we hit limits? Last year. You obviously were not in the game then. This type of shit happens and when you are undercapitalized and risking more than you should you will pay.

That was one instance in the past 365 days about. Do this for 35 years and let me know how this has all panned out. Odds are heavily stacked against you.
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Algo, you speak about black-swan events. But this is only one of the reasons why traders lose money. Generally people lose money during normal market conditions. 1a2b3cppp had a good strike in his favour during the choppy market. I wonder how will he trade when there come trends.

And thouse who survive during different phases of the market may face black-swan event which usually comes once per several years.
 
Quote from Algo_Design_Kid:

You don't think the ES can limit up/down? It could happen, but you have to prepare for that by always limiting your risk. You will hit that deviation if you are in the market for a long enough time. You obviously know the story about lumber.

I am not saying you are going to get tossed for 111 ES pts but what happens when you are risking 1% of your contract per ES pt?

Do you know when the last time we hit limits? Last year. You obviously were not in the game then. This type of shit happens and when you are undercapitalized and risking more than you should you will pay.

That was one instance in the past 365 days about. Do this for 35 years and let me know how this has all panned out. Odds are heavily stacked against you.
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Can you tell me what day that happened on cuz even looking at historical data I don't see it.

You also didn't answer my question to you of "well then how big should my account be to trade with this strategy?" Lemme know if you need any more info from me.
 
I made $4,178.30 for the week (although technically now my account is over $50k, but I'm still using only 9 ES contracts worth of margin so that's like under $10k or so depending on which broker you use).

That's an average daily profit of $835.66.

Week stats:

6 winning trades: average size = $932

2 losing trades: average size = -$709.65

Quote from RedRat:

1a2b3cppp had a good strike in his favour during the choppy market. I wonder how will he trade when there come trends.
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Today was trendy, wouldn't you say, and I had a huge up day today. Trendy days work much better for me than choppy days.
 
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