Autonomous Semi Trucks

The cost is the fuel mainly, drivers are cheap
I drive upstate every weekend and most 18-wheelers have advertisements "drivers wanted, X per mile" where X is between 35 and 50 cents. According to google, a semi gets anywhere from 4 to 7 MPG, at 2.5 dollars per gallon. So the cost of drivers is more or less the same as the cost of fuel.
 
Think self driving cars are the next wave? Odds are it will be trucks first. I figured that would be the case...., this article seems to confirm my beliefs.

http://www.businessinsider.com/why-driverless-trucks-will-come-before-self-driving-cars-2016-9

And it makes sense. Highway driving is a more conducive environment in the early stages of this metamorphis.
The market will be HUGE. Companies like Fedex, UPS, Yellow, Schneider, JB Hunt.... the list goes on and on.

Soooo ... I was thinking about that.

18 Speed manual transmissions are pretty much the industry standard.
Well thats not going to work. They're not going to have a robot sitting there in the seat pushing the clutch and changing gears. So I started doing a little patent research into automatic transmissions for semis.

There's one worldwide leader out there. Google "Eaton's AutoShift and UltraShift" products. Volvo has an entry (but even they are using Eaton's), Mercedes is working on it.. that's about it.

The Eaton chart looks pretty good too. And they are definitely a Trump stock. The beauty of it is...for the most part, they haven't really enjoyed the rally. They're still cheap. And they pay a 3.16% dividend.

Do your own research but this one sure sounds like one you can put in your 401K and forget about. Every self driving semi in the world will be using their transmissions and or their patents. And self-driving semis are going to be king of the road. Pun intended.

"See your future Danny.... Be, ....be your future"
-Ty Webb

I have actually driven truck, and when I stopped, had over one million safe millions, I would trade couple hours from inside, was fun. I don't ever see driverless trucking cause of safety reasons, GPS does and will always have problems, I have used them since 1998, they will say to turn right and end up feet from the ocean or docks, you will lose signal during storms and tall buildings, it can't tell when driving black or regular ice, sometimes a football field away from next vehicle is not far enough, I have hauled three trailers few times, never been as scared in my life doing that, so easy to hurt 4 wheelers-when there is more weight in end trailer-it fish tails, there are safety features now that will slow truck down when people cut in front, but if they aimed wrong you slow down going under a bridge. Eventually government will have more electronics so if company does not put on governors on engines, they will rule. I don't mind them doing that at all, better wages for truckers then and better fuel economy as best speed for trucks is like 52mph but I doubt they ever get that low, would clog up all the roads. More accidents occur when there are split speeds for car and trucks. Many Car people DO NOT know rules of the road and driving in LA, people are much more friendly to truck drivers and slowing down to let trucks onto expressways than most much smaller towns. There can be many improvements in industry but the wages have to go up, unless you are smart and read much where the good companies are, you end up working for $35k a year but most new truckers who start, won't be there year later, you have to love not being home 26 days of the month. And good companies pay $75k to $120k as company driver with tons of bennies.

"18 Speed manual transmissions are pretty much the industry standard" not even close in USA, ten speed bought by almost every huge company, unless you hauling over weight, all those gears not needed, Jake brakes can do much slowing with 80,000 lb load going down the likes of Cabbage Pass on I-84.

I have seen the trailers with the automatic chain devices, but what happens when it breaks or put on when missing links. I don't ever see electric trucks, have to carry couple thousand pounds of batteries to tackle 8% grades out west? LOL and all the switchbacks, have a huge number of trucks in right hand lane run out of power and no shoulder to pull over, LOL I doubt the truck be able to see mile in front of you of tornadoes or sheet of snow barreling down mountain. No way in 20% fuel cost saving, just no way, transmission and right gear is just matter of speed, each gear has a speed, speed is controlled by weight of load and speed laws, traffic, spring time is pot hole season and soft dirt roads, summer is construction time which means if I see rocks on shoulder, they will be in road and go slower and not drive over rocks as tires will fling the rocks can be over 100mph at vehicles to side and back of truck. Have no clue how without driver going to fuel, truckstops have reduced staffs. Many states have idling laws like Ca, more trucking companies going with battery heaters and cooling, almost all have drivers go for CPAP tests.

Either way, more regulation will mean higher prices when you buy something. Just remember though, it only takes one accident to wipe out YOUR family, so regardless of driver free or driver in cab, trucks can't slow down quickly, you have to yield when on ramp to freeway, there is less tailgating then ten years ago, better to move out of the way, driving is no game for anyone. The are more weird people driving a car than a truck.
 
I have actually driven truck, and when I stopped, had over one million safe millions, I would trade couple hours from inside, was fun. I don't ever see driverless trucking cause of safety reasons, GPS does and will always have problems, I have used them since 1998, they will say to turn right and end up feet from the ocean or docks, you will lose signal during storms and tall buildings, it can't tell when driving black or regular ice, sometimes a football field away from next vehicle is not far enough, I have hauled three trailers few times, never been as scared in my life doing that, so easy to hurt 4 wheelers-when there is more weight in end trailer-it fish tails, there are safety features now that will slow truck down when people cut in front, but if they aimed wrong you slow down going under a bridge. Eventually government will have more electronics so if company does not put on governors on engines, they will rule. I don't mind them doing that at all, better wages for truckers then and better fuel economy as best speed for trucks is like 52mph but I doubt they ever get that low, would clog up all the roads. More accidents occur when there are split speeds for car and trucks. Many Car people DO NOT know rules of the road and driving in LA, people are much more friendly to truck drivers and slowing down to let trucks onto expressways than most much smaller towns. There can be many improvements in industry but the wages have to go up, unless you are smart and read much where the good companies are, you end up working for $35k a year but most new truckers who start, won't be there year later, you have to love not being home 26 days of the month. And good companies pay $75k to $120k as company driver with tons of bennies.

"18 Speed manual transmissions are pretty much the industry standard" not even close in USA, ten speed bought by almost every huge company, unless you hauling over weight, all those gears not needed, Jake brakes can do much slowing with 80,000 lb load going down the likes of Cabbage Pass on I-84.

I have seen the trailers with the automatic chain devices, but what happens when it breaks or put on when missing links. I don't ever see electric trucks, have to carry couple thousand pounds of batteries to tackle 8% grades out west? LOL and all the switchbacks, have a huge number of trucks in right hand lane run out of power and no shoulder to pull over, LOL I doubt the truck be able to see mile in front of you of tornadoes or sheet of snow barreling down mountain. No way in 20% fuel cost saving, just no way, transmission and right gear is just matter of speed, each gear has a speed, speed is controlled by weight of load and speed laws, traffic, spring time is pot hole season and soft dirt roads, summer is construction time which means if I see rocks on shoulder, they will be in road and go slower and not drive over rocks as tires will fling the rocks can be over 100mph at vehicles to side and back of truck. Have no clue how without driver going to fuel, truckstops have reduced staffs. Many states have idling laws like Ca, more trucking companies going with battery heaters and cooling, almost all have drivers go for CPAP tests.

Either way, more regulation will mean higher prices when you buy something. Just remember though, it only takes one accident to wipe out YOUR family, so regardless of driver free or driver in cab, trucks can't slow down quickly, you have to yield when on ramp to freeway, there is less tailgating then ten years ago, better to move out of the way, driving is no game for anyone. The are more weird people driving a car than a truck.

I love this learning curve here. I'm gonna be an expert in this stuff. Question for you OG....
If GPS won't work for trucks, how in the world is it going to work for cars?
 
I drive upstate every weekend and most 18-wheelers have advertisements "drivers wanted, X per mile" where X is between 35 and 50 cents. According to google, a semi gets anywhere from 4 to 7 MPG, at 2.5 dollars per gallon. So the cost of drivers is more or less the same as the cost of fuel.

Say $0.42 per mile, say 40miles average in an hour that's $16.80 per hour pretty good.

UK expect £10 per hour for a lorry driver. so that's $12.50 area currently.

Fuel cost $6.20 for 4liters ( our gallons have 4.5 over there )

So average 40miles in an hour, average 8gallons that's fuel cost of $49.60 vs $12.50 wage, see mostly fuel, USA fuel $20 vs $16.80 so much closer.
 
Say $0.42 per mile, say 40miles average in an hour that's $16.80 per hour pretty good.

UK expect £10 per hour for a lorry driver. so that's $12.50 area currently.

Fuel cost $6.20 for 4liters ( our gallons have 4.5 over there )

So average 40miles in an hour, average 8gallons that's fuel cost of $49.60 vs $12.50 wage, see mostly fuel, USA fuel $20 vs $16.80 so much closer.

Something about this math is off. You're saying that diesel in UK is $1.55 USD per litre?
 
Something about this math is off. You're saying that diesel in UK is $1.55 USD per litre?

Yeah about that, give or take a few cents same in Europe, only the USA doesn't tax there fuel to death.

80% of the Fuel price in the UK is TAX seriously.

That's why our Petrol cars get 30-45mpg generally and diesels 40-55mpg allowing for the 4litres per gallon. We couldn't afford to run cars at 20mpg, smaller country aswell so we travel less miles thankfully aswell.
 
Yeah, I was talking about the US (that's where trucking is the key cargo transport). I recall reading somewhere that efficiency of transportation in Europe is higher due to prevalence of railroad cargo for long-haul. So I'd expect them to transition to automated trucks much slower anyway.
 
Yeah, I was talking about the US (that's where trucking is the key cargo transport). I recall reading somewhere that efficiency of transportation in Europe is higher due to prevalence of railroad cargo for long-haul. So I'd expect them to transition to automated trucks much slower anyway.

Rail in the UK isn't much use I'd say 80% Trucks here to.
 
I have actually driven truck, and when I stopped, had over one million safe millions, I would trade couple hours from inside, was fun. I don't ever see driverless trucking cause of safety reasons, GPS does and will always have problems, I have used them since 1998, they will say to turn right and end up feet from the ocean or docks, you will lose signal during storms and tall buildings, it can't tell when driving black or regular ice, sometimes a football field away from next vehicle is not far enough, I have hauled three trailers few times, never been as scared in my life doing that, so easy to hurt 4 wheelers-when there is more weight in end trailer-it fish tails, there are safety features now that will slow truck down when people cut in front, but if they aimed wrong you slow down going under a bridge. Eventually government will have more electronics so if company does not put on governors on engines, they will rule. I don't mind them doing that at all, better wages for truckers then and better fuel economy as best speed for trucks is like 52mph but I doubt they ever get that low, would clog up all the roads. More accidents occur when there are split speeds for car and trucks. Many Car people DO NOT know rules of the road and driving in LA, people are much more friendly to truck drivers and slowing down to let trucks onto expressways than most much smaller towns. There can be many improvements in industry but the wages have to go up, unless you are smart and read much where the good companies are, you end up working for $35k a year but most new truckers who start, won't be there year later, you have to love not being home 26 days of the month. And good companies pay $75k to $120k as company driver with tons of bennies.

"18 Speed manual transmissions are pretty much the industry standard" not even close in USA, ten speed bought by almost every huge company, unless you hauling over weight, all those gears not needed, Jake brakes can do much slowing with 80,000 lb load going down the likes of Cabbage Pass on I-84.

I have seen the trailers with the automatic chain devices, but what happens when it breaks or put on when missing links. I don't ever see electric trucks, have to carry couple thousand pounds of batteries to tackle 8% grades out west? LOL and all the switchbacks, have a huge number of trucks in right hand lane run out of power and no shoulder to pull over, LOL I doubt the truck be able to see mile in front of you of tornadoes or sheet of snow barreling down mountain. No way in 20% fuel cost saving, just no way, transmission and right gear is just matter of speed, each gear has a speed, speed is controlled by weight of load and speed laws, traffic, spring time is pot hole season and soft dirt roads, summer is construction time which means if I see rocks on shoulder, they will be in road and go slower and not drive over rocks as tires will fling the rocks can be over 100mph at vehicles to side and back of truck. Have no clue how without driver going to fuel, truckstops have reduced staffs. Many states have idling laws like Ca, more trucking companies going with battery heaters and cooling, almost all have drivers go for CPAP tests.

Either way, more regulation will mean higher prices when you buy something. Just remember though, it only takes one accident to wipe out YOUR family, so regardless of driver free or driver in cab, trucks can't slow down quickly, you have to yield when on ramp to freeway, there is less tailgating then ten years ago, better to move out of the way, driving is no game for anyone. The are more weird people driving a car than a truck.
Always great to get perspective from someone who's actually done what we're talking about for a living! Thanks.
 
Always great to get perspective from someone who's actually done what we're talking about for a living! Thanks.

Automated cars, don't work off GPS well not entirely, they have sensors/radars/camera's there not blindly following the GPS and there map data and I don't see why they couldn't adapt for road conditions.

Land Trains on Motorways/Interstates I guess, where the lorries all data link and sit inches from each other, huge savings on fuel economy doing this.
 
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