Autonomous Semi Trucks

vanzandt · Feb 24, 2017

Think self driving cars are the next wave? Odds are it will be trucks first. I figured that would be the case...., this article seems to confirm my beliefs.

http://www.businessinsider.com/why-driverless-trucks-will-come-before-self-driving-cars-2016-9

And it makes sense. Highway driving is a more conducive environment in the early stages of this metamorphis.
The market will be HUGE. Companies like Fedex, UPS, Yellow, Schneider, JB Hunt.... the list goes on and on.

Soooo ... I was thinking about that.

18 Speed manual transmissions are pretty much the industry standard.
Well thats not going to work. They're not going to have a robot sitting there in the seat pushing the clutch and changing gears. So I started doing a little patent research into automatic transmissions for semis.

There's one worldwide leader out there. Google "Eaton's AutoShift and UltraShift" products. Volvo has an entry (but even they are using Eaton's), Mercedes is working on it.. that's about it.

The Eaton chart looks pretty good too. And they are definitely a Trump stock. The beauty of it is...for the most part, they haven't really enjoyed the rally. They're still cheap. And they pay a 3.16% dividend.

Do your own research but this one sure sounds like one you can put in your 401K and forget about. Every self driving semi in the world will be using their transmissions and or their patents. And self-driving semis are going to be king of the road. Pun intended.

"See your future Danny.... Be, ....be your future"
-Ty Webb

Option_Attack · Feb 24, 2017

I'll believe it if the 18 wheelers are programmed to tailgate, speed, try to pass on uphill sections, smash smaller vehicles, etc, etc...and eat fried chicken! Then that will be like real life.

Gotcha · Feb 24, 2017

vanzandt said:
Think self driving cars are the next wave? Odds are it will be trucks first. I figured that would be the case...., this article seems to confirm my beliefs.

http://www.businessinsider.com/why-driverless-trucks-will-come-before-self-driving-cars-2016-9

And it makes sense. Highway driving is a more conducive environment in the early stages of this metamorphis.
The market will be HUGE. Companies like Fedex, UPS, Yellow, Schneider, JB Hunt.... the list goes on and on.

Soooo ... I was thinking about that.

18 Speed manual transmissions are pretty much the industry standard.
Well thats not going to work. They're not going to have a robot sitting there in the seat pushing the clutch and changing gears. So I started doing a little patent research into automatic transmissions for semis.

There's one worldwide leader out there. Google "Eaton's AutoShift and UltraShift" products. Volvo has an entry (but even they are using Eaton's), Mercedes is working on it.. that's about it.

The Eaton chart looks pretty good too. And they are definitely a Trump stock. The beauty of it is...for the most part, they haven't really enjoyed the rally. They're still cheap. And they pay a 3.16% dividend.

Do your own research but this one sure sounds like one you can put in your 401K and forget about. Every self driving semi in the world will be using their transmissions and or their patents. And self-driving semis are going to be king of the road. Pun intended.

"See your future Danny.... Be, ....be your future"
-Ty Webb

As much as I agree with the premise that the trucking industry will more than likely be the first to change before personal transportation, I'm not sure if one company that has a fancy transmission system will be the one to skyrocket.

Look at the autonomous driving sector for personal cars. I remember an article that states that the Uber CEO said if he isn't number 1 to cross the finish line first, it won't matter who is next, since presumably, the top spot is most important and will get all the market share. As of now, with Uber, Google, Tesla, Ford, and others I can't recall, all competing, its hard to know who will be first. So sure, your logic sounds good, but betting on it is a whole different matter.

vanzandt · Feb 24, 2017

Gotcha said:
As much as I agree with the premise that the trucking industry will more than likely be the first to change before personal transportation, I'm not sure if one company that has a fancy transmission system will be the one to skyrocket.

Look at the autonomous driving sector for personal cars. I remember an article that states that the Uber CEO said if he isn't number 1 to cross the finish line first, it won't matter who is next, since presumably, the top spot is most important and will get all the market share. As of now, with Uber, Google, Tesla, Ford, and others I can't recall, all competing, its hard to know who will be first. So sure, your logic sounds good, but betting on it is a whole different matter.

Well, they've been building transmissions since the early 1900's so they are already the first to cross the finish line in that regard. These transmissions are already out there working everyday. They're tried and true... Driver-less cars will all be automatics. So will driver-less trucks.
Eaton will own 80% of that market. How many trucks.... who knows. Maybe zero if the Teamsters raise hell. Gonna make a lot of folks jobless to be sure.

Eaton also has several other divisions. Its certainly not a one trick pony. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eaton_Corporation The CEO is a forward thinker.

Like I said though... This is not a get rich overnight type stock. This is a grandpa play to be used to build wealth the way the markets were designed. Its a safe stock that I suspect will outperform the S&P yoy going forward.

Besides... Wall Street buys the sizzle and not the steak. Let the WSJ write what I just wrote above... 5% pop overnight. Easy.

Gotcha · Feb 24, 2017

vanzandt said:
Besides... Wall Street buys the sizzle and not the steak. Let the WSJ write what I just wrote above... 5% pop overnight. Easy.

Totally agree with you there, but my feeling is it will be all electric. For a truck, weight is even less of a factor, and although gassing up a truck that can go 1000 miles is easy to do these days, I imagine that this isn't a long term solution. Just as much info as I've seen on autonomous trucks, I've also seen equal amounts of info on electric trucks.

vanzandt · Feb 24, 2017

Gotcha said:
Totally agree with you there, but my feeling is it will be all electric. For a truck, weight is even less of a factor, and although gassing up a truck that can go 1000 miles is easy to do these days, I imagine that this isn't a long term solution. Just as much info as I've seen on autonomous trucks, I've also seen equal amounts of info on electric trucks.

Actually, weight is very big deal in the freight business. Especially if you max out the load, which is what all the freight companies strive to do. Thats why there's weigh stations. Those things tear up the interstates.
I can't imagine the size of the batteries required to get a fully loaded semi over the Continental Divide and still have the juice to press on for 500 miles. Nahhh... were stuck with diesel for awhile.

DTB2 · Feb 24, 2017

Gotcha said:
Totally agree with you there, but my feeling is it will be all electric. For a truck, weight is even less of a factor, and although gassing up a truck that can go 1000 miles is easy to do these days, I imagine that this isn't a long term solution. Just as much info as I've seen on autonomous trucks, I've also seen equal amounts of info on electric trucks.

Electric vehicle transmissions are the way as well. Much better use of power.

Will it be Eaton or Bosch there?

Turveyd · Feb 25, 2017

The cost is the fuel mainly, drivers are cheap and have other uses ie filling up so don't see lorries going auto any time soon.

Driving longer without stops / breaks is the main advantage mind.

vanzandt · Feb 25, 2017

Turveyd said:
The cost is the fuel mainly, drivers are cheap and have other uses ie filling up so don't see lorries going auto any time soon.

Driving longer without stops / breaks is the main advantage mind.

Its amazing when on the road here in the States, you see these massive massive truckstops with hundreds of rigs parked overnight, and every damn one of them is idling... I guess for AC/heat. Millions of gallons/year being burned unnecessarily. Driver-less trucks won't need rest breaks.

I can see them traveling in packs of hundreds, slow and steady down the interstates, talking to each other, sharing AI if you will.

I read more about these transmissions from Eaton (ETN btw)... they are already on the road and they are "smart" transmissions. Computer controlled with load sensors etc that do a better job of sensing the grade and knowing when to shift/downshift more so than even experienced drivers can. They claim that rigs equipped with these can save upwards of 20% in annualized fuel costs.
Either way... interesting stuff.

PS... "lorrie"?!! Why the F can't you Brits speak English?

DTB2 · Feb 25, 2017

I think the plan is to run triple trailers cross country stopping at hub to switch out trailers. From those hubs, local drivers will take them to their final destination.

While driverless truck won't require rest breaks they will need to get the recharging time down to near zero before electric can work.