Author predicted crisis, predicts inflation

[QQQBALL]

Quote from Ivanovich:

Longer term, eh?

So how long term are we talking about? Doesn't exactly take a lot of smarts to say "in the long term, we can expect prices to rise".

...?

you have 6.5B people worldwide with only 1B living in the industrialized countries. They are not going to drink shitty water, ride bicycles & live by candle-light. Improving their living standards is going to entail R-E-S-O-U-R-C-E-S.

but ST, IT or even longer term, I agree. Its rare that I have very little work, but in the past few months its been worse than ever (25 yrs in business). No work in December & no work so far this month. my ex-wife's hubby is on 4-day work-week & my sister was actually on the lay-off list until her boss got her "re-hired." she has been with the company for 18 years. Martin Armstrong of PEI says that depression cycles last 20-22 or so years, so your point is very valid on how long is Long Term?

 

[QQQBALL]

Quote from christianhgross:

Wow, you are falling for the fallacy that Taleb has pointed out...

Given enough monkeys then you will have a monkey who happens to have gotten 5 events right and thus will seem to have predictive power.

However, this is not the case since this monkey got the right answer due to the sheer amount of randomness.

My point is that while Martin Armstrong is right, I would rather know how many things he got wrong, and when.

you should do some reading on Martin Armstrong. Look at the guy's time projections and history of unbelievably timely projections & cycle overlaps.

seriously, do some research - guy is an original thinker

 

[johnpinochet]

Quote from christianhgross:

I will not deny that Armstrong might be intelligent and knowledgeable...

But here is the thing, what if I make a prediction are you going to believe me? Probably not because I am some quack in the middle of nowhere.

Then again quite a few of my predictions have been right on the money. That's why I blog! It keeps me honest!

My point is that if this man has been making a prediction for the past 10 years then he is woefully off the mark. His "hyperinflation" call could be 20 years away!

Predictions have to be timely because otherwise they are just "Chicken Little acts".

BTW economists have been pretty off the mark for the past year...

Simply put if we wait long enough everything happens!

You obviously have no idea who Armstrong is, or what you are talking about in reference to him. His predictions involved specific dates. He's been in prison on contempt of court (longest in US history by the way) so he can't possibly change them.

Really, if you had read anything he put out when he was writing you would be embarrassed by your statement of "making a prediction for the last 10 years."

Speaking from personal experience in late 2006, seeing his specific dates made for 2007 and beyond at a minimum saved me from losing 50% plus of my retirement account because I went from buy and hold to swing trading my 401K. His dates matched other important cycle researchers I follow. So the decision to exit my long term trades was easy.

 

[tmarket]

Quote from johnpinochet:
He's been in prison on contempt of court (longest in US history by the way) so he can't possibly change them.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_A._Armstrong

Criminal charges

In 1999, Japanese fraud investigators determined that Armstrong had been collecting money from Japanese investors, improperly "commingling" these funds with funds from other investors, and using the fresh money to cover losses he had incurred while trading; this is a form of Ponzi scheme. [6] Assisting Armstrong in his scheme was the Republic New York Bank which produced false account statements to reassure Armstrong's investors, and which in 2001 agreed to pay $606 million as restitution for its part in the scandal.[7]

Armstrong was indicted in 1999, and was ordered by Judge Richard Owen to turn over a number of gold bars, computers, and antiquities that had been bought with the fund's money; the list included bronze helmets and a bust of Julius Caesar.[8] Armstrong produced some of the items, but claimed the others were not in his possession; this led to several contempt of court charges.[9] Armstrong was jailed for seven years for contempt of court, and only went to trial when the NY Court of Appeals removed Judge Owen from his case; in 2007 he pleaded guilty and was sentenced to five more years in prison.[10]

 

[Eight]

Armstrong was incredible as an academic, what happened when he did that Japanese thing is unreal. He is a patriot, maybe some big money came in to screw his life up and he responded badly. They sure screwed up his life after that, no constitutional rights at all, forget it...

 

[johnpinochet]

Quote from tmarket:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_A._Armstrong

I remember that he pleaded guilty recently but did not know that it was official. I'm not saying the man is a saint, however, something smells fishy about the whole case, i.e. there is no case. Contempt of court for 7 years? Come on!

 

[tmarket]

Quote from Eight:

A......They sure screwed up his life after that, no constitutional rights at all, forget it...

I would disagree that 'they' screwed up his life, he did that to himself. He was running a Ponzi scheme and he didn't want to cooperate. This is like Berni Madoff not cooperating and expect to get out of jail.

This whole fraud conviction begs the question of how effective was his cycle analysis that he had to run a Ponzi scheme.

 

[johnpinochet]

Quote from Eight:

Armstrong was incredible as an academic, what happened when he did that Japanese thing is unreal. He is a patriot, maybe some big money came in to screw his life up and he responded badly. They sure screwed up his life after that, no constitutional rights at all, forget it...

I looked at this pretty closely back in 2006 and 2007. The man is a genius. I don't know if I buy the CIA angle, BUT it is obvious that he pissed off some very high level powerful people.

 

[johnpinochet]

Quote from tmarket:

I would disagree that 'they' screwed up his life, he did that to himself. He was running a Ponzi scheme and he didn't want to cooperate. This is like Berni Madoff not cooperating and expect to get out of jail.

This whole fraud conviction begs the question of how effective was his cycle analysis that he had to run a Ponzi scheme.

I don't know, but I think I would plead guilty to anything after 7 years in prison on contempt of court. That would more than indicate to me that something isn't working right regarding the constitution and that I'd better take whatever "deal" I was offered.

I'm surprised you mention the fraud conviction as the basis for your argument. Kind of weak.

Duress: in law, actual or threatened violence or imprisonment, by reason of which a person is forced to enter into an agreement or to perform some other act against his will. (Columbia Encyclopedia)

 

[Bigpipn]

Armstrong's next important date in consumer confidence peaks here very shortly--let's see what happens.