Any time something is not working, you gotta find out why, and I believe despite of a small loss I have found the truth behind my recent shooting woes. Changes are expensive for traders, any time you add a new indicator, a new play to your book, you are going to take hits. Last week I added Bollinger Bands and had good results, and this week I have been shooting 25% and down $1200 for the week. There is no free lunch, you will take hits if you try new tricks, and you hope you quickly absorb the new tricks and make money again.
I have been trusting this indicator too much and shifted from playing a tight tape game into a chart game. Chart game results in looser stops and not getting out of the positions in time, while it allows me to track more positions at a time, in this brutal environment it is just a horrible idea (unless of course, I become a true basket trader and do dozens of positions at a time). I MUST wait for tape confirmation, I have to see some size, a BID, a ASK, something. I can not afford to jump into 1x10's and 2x5's, then set a chart stop, it is too loose, it is no good. Regardless of what the chart looks like, if the tape is not moving, it is a neutral position, a 50/50 trade. I have to lean on those BID/ASK's, tighten up the defense. I have took too much unneccessary damage last a few days. Playing a chart game allows you to have excuses to sacrifice on precision, and that is a big no-no.
Today would have been a total blown out if I didn't catch a very fortunate trade in AGN. I was torn apart missing first five shots of the game. I see my mistakes crystal clear now, wait for tape confirmation, TAPE, TAPE, TAPE, TAPE, just because a stock seems to be bouncing off the Bollinger Band doesn't mean buy it, watch the tape, wait for the BID, some sort of BID to lean on . . . The way I traded last 3 games felt like a return to the old ways of May, that's exactly how I got smoked until I switched to tape confirmation. Tape > Chart!
3 of 12 shooting, 8700 shares, 2 bullets, +209 before commissions, -120 after . . .
Pre-Market: A bunch of health care upgrades and energy upgrades
9:30: Took THC at 56.75 and hit immediately for 22 cents loss, it was one of the health care stocks upgraded but HMO index reversed immediately, we had some data feed issues this morning and I got out a touch too slow. Took some MMC on IUX strength and got out too early, missed a 60 cents move. Took some WFT on OSX pop and got hit for 19 cents as that happened to be OSX's morning high. Took some EPG on XNG strength, hit for a nickle loss and it ripped half a point. Took GS on good tape action long and I was in the money by 40 cents, all of a sudden a 70000 offer showed up as the market reversed (actually, BKX/SOX were going straight down, I should have expected this, XBD alone can't hold up) and I was hit for a 10 cents, essentially losing 50 cents in GS . . . Not only I had the wrong idea of overall market direction (futures near top band but overall trending up so I wanted to go long), my execution was simply horrendous.
10:03: Took AGN bullet on DRG sell-off (Mrs. D. was also short, when you were as cold as I was, you needed to ride a coat tail, that's exactly what I got, just the fact she was short and a big offer convinced me to put up the bullet). Shorted 800 shares at 76.51, market went freefall but he displayed a 20000 BID (fake) at .40 which scared me into covering half at .41, shorted 200 more at .20 and covered it all at 75.54, sweeter than pie trade, of course it went down further but that was after an extended consolidation, despite of the lack of size I have to say it was the way I need to execute to win this thing. Unfortunately my bullet in LM on XBD sell-off didn't work, this stock just doesn't move anymore in a slow market, made 20 cents but it was on a tiny position. There was no offer, it was a waste of bullet.
2:00: This just sucks, all of a sudden all energy stocks went through the roof on real volume and large prints. I thought it was the delayed rally afterall there was an upgrade in the morning. Took KMI and TDW and I got hit 20 cents a piece . . . That said, today I learned a new tip from a fellow trader, (unconfirmed) every single Wednesday the commodity board announces inventory level, and that is a HUGE catalyst. The energy stocks will move sharply to one direction or the other, make it the only day of the week on which it is ok to trade energy stocks in the afternoon (all other days, the commodity price churns, so does the stock price, in the afternoon). I need to confirm this, if it is true then I have to watch every energy stock every single Wed 2PM. Any idea where I can find a list of events like this sorted by calendar? It turned out to be a rumor of natural gas reduction, a RUMOR, ahhhhh!
3:00: Churned EPG and IBM a little . . . actually made a few cents on each, but too little, too late . . . Still, given the way I played in the morning, it was a very fortunate game . . .
I am in danger of being swept for the week. 3 games losing streak, I have dealt with this before (lost 10K in two weeks late April), composure, composure, composure. I am down $750 for the pay period, I have had 6 black pay periods in a row, I still can make it 7th, getting a check this pay period, no matter how small, will be a HUGE mental edge going into September, when I absolutely must take my game to another level.
Next two games, SURVIVE IS THE WORD . . . Strength, courage and focus . . .
On a side note, Mrs. D. signed her 6 years contract with the firm today. She is the first female trading desk manager at my firm. The trader who was here 5 month and let go with just a 5K deficit in firm capital, he talked to the owner yesterday and got his account back, ready to play again. Great organization indeed . . .