August Gold (GCQ7)

JoeSixPack still doesn't get the gold market...I'm still waiting for somebody in line at the grocery store crowing about how much gold they own....

this market has a long way to go....

my broker guy says there is white knuckle panic in the debt markets (ex treasury)

Sunday nite should be worth the wait when Asia gets a crack at it
 
Solid gains posted for the week:

GLD +2.35%
SLV +2.08%

So far for the month of July:

GLD +5.15%
SLV +7.15%

With the USDX teetering on the edge of breaking under 80, the metals look poised to move even higher (Not withstanding some expected consolidation of course). If and when the USDX does stage a rally, I am doubtful that the metals will get hit in a dramatic fashion. The reason why is because we are embarking on a new phase of the bull market and external events will be unable to stop the run until its complete. I am expecting the current run to finish around the 2nd quarter of next year. Until that time is upon us, pullbacks are likely to be opportunities to add or enter long positions...
 
So far gold seems to attract some buying support right at 680 cash. As long as we don't break 675 on the cash chart, then any downside should be taken as a normal consolidation effort. Any trades lower than this though and we could back and fill down to the lower 670 range...
 

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Per yesterday's comments, buyers came right up to par when 680 came along and gold promptly moved up to 687.75 before backing down. I would not be surprised to see an attempt made up to 690-700 this week as the USDX continues to show weakness. USDX futures for the next 2 front months have been trading under 80 for almost 24hrs. now. This is not a very good indicator of dollar strength in the near term imo. Even though we could see a USD bounce soon, I would gather that many traders and funds are still looking to enter the metals long on any sign of a 1-2% pullback so there should be further support in the metals for sometime to come. It is also a very good sign for Au/Ag to hold up in the green while the energy complex and the US indexes are exhibiting weakness today. This is quite encouraging moving forward that gold and silver's time to shine has arrived once again...
 
spoke a bit too soon, as soon as the swoon began in the US indices, gold and silver promptly sold off and todays gains are all but gone as of 4PM EST. This could have a negative impact on the metals similar to March if the selling persists. I'm watching 13.20 cash silver and 680 cash gold. A decisive break below those levels will have me back on the sidelines....
 
Once gold broke 680 cash in a decisive manner, stops got hit and the trip down to 675 was inevitable. DX strength contributed to this much needed correction and 670 looks like support for now. If 670 doesn't hold, then the uptrend will be in doubt as the possibility of a visit down to 660 would come into effect. This is the 2nd time so far that gold and silver have corrected back down to their respective 15EMA during the new uptrend. Will the metals bounce back again? We shall soon see...
 
so far tonight gold is up about $5 from today's low and silver about $0.12. If Asia and Europe continue buying then we may have just completed another correction and then time to move over 690/13.50 could be in order real soon...
 
Mirror image was a very sharp upmove in the dollar. If this holds, then this move in gold is over for now.
Crucial battle at 80 on the NYBOT's dollar index, just like those of us who have watched this dollar bear/gold bull unfold for years have thought. If 80 decisively falls on the USD, well, things could get interesting. But I doubt it will fall on the first try, so I'm cautious on gold, pending further developments.
 
It is quite possible that the USDX has hit and established another long term support zone and hence the precious metals are unable to move any higher. The downside action from the past three session has occurred on very high volume. Unless the USDX closes under 80 in the near future, the bull market in gold and silver could be coming to an end here...
 
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