It appears that COMEX active month gold and silver contracts will close out with 3 continuous sessions of losses. This event almost always results in marking the end of an uptrend. There is a much stronger possibility now for some harsh selling in the coming days IMO. Be careful out there if your still long...
August Gold (GCQ7)
- Thread starter Realist
- Start date
The markets are smelling blood, I think. Gold is creeping up as I write this, after Bear reported that its funds went belly up and INTC published a disappointing earnings report. That report is causing the Nikkei to drop as well, on selling of tech shares over there.
Meantime, and most importantly for gold, the dollar dropped sharply after the Bear report. It's already pierced a more than decade-old support line on the Fed's Major Currencies Index. We're about as close to an actual, all-out currency crisis as you can get without actually having one.
<a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DTWEXM/chart?cid=105&fgid=&fgcid=&ct=&pt=&cs=Large&crb=on&cf=lin&range=Max&cosd=1973-01-02&coed=2007-07-16&asids=+%3CEnter+Series+ID%3E" target="'">Major Currencies Index</a>
Meantime, and most importantly for gold, the dollar dropped sharply after the Bear report. It's already pierced a more than decade-old support line on the Fed's Major Currencies Index. We're about as close to an actual, all-out currency crisis as you can get without actually having one.
<a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DTWEXM/chart?cid=105&fgid=&fgcid=&ct=&pt=&cs=Large&crb=on&cf=lin&range=Max&cosd=1973-01-02&coed=2007-07-16&asids=+%3CEnter+Series+ID%3E" target="'">Major Currencies Index</a>
Today could signal a major shift in sentiment for the precious metals. Just as gold was rejected for a 4th time at 670, the market showed us its hand and blasted right through key resistance today. This is all in the face of a weaker dollar and a nice downdraft in US equities. I must admit that I got whipsawed quite good the past few days but now things seems very well footed for gold (and especially for silver) moving forward. At this juncture, I am fully positioned long and will plan to stay so until the proper exit signal is given. Silver was finally able to break and hold key resistance at the 40/50EMA which is critical in identifying the intermediate trend which has now officially turned up...
Gold had no problems clearing resistance at 674 cash today with NY cash closing around 676.65. There is no major resistance until 690-693 now. I continue to remain heavily positioned in Silver though as a significant breakout appears imminent imo. I continue to expect to see Silver far exceed golds price performance by a much greater magnitude during this intermediate leg of the bull run..
Gold Share Indexes continue to exert a very strong bullish divergence from the current gold and silver price. All major uplegs in the current metals bull market have been proceeded by an extreme outperformance of the gold indexes by at least 2-3 weeks before the metals prices actually break higher. It would appear that the XAU/HUI/GDM is currently pricing in a move in gold to at least 690-700 and Silver to 14.50-15. Both the gold and silver cash charts look about ready to explode to the upside imo. Tomorrow's trading could be a very interesting session...
be careful ... fridays have been known to be whippy
you could easily see profit taking take place as well as a nice move to the upside
by the way ... there is size being shown on both sides of the book in gold futures now in Asian dealing ... prob. some "spoofing" going on or someone who likes to play with size for "dimes" in gold futures
you could easily see profit taking take place as well as a nice move to the upside
by the way ... there is size being shown on both sides of the book in gold futures now in Asian dealing ... prob. some "spoofing" going on or someone who likes to play with size for "dimes" in gold futures