Aug Feeder Cattle.

Quote from ProfLogic:

These are two outstanding reasons whey I stay away from the fundamentals in the Ag Markets.

Aug. Feeder Cattle are in a Bull Trend and are coming from a Divergent Higher Low in that Trend. Either currently or soon it will confirm that bottom and make a go at 117.925 and the 119 and change . . . period. If it confirms a top before it reaches those levels . . . THEN it will come down and not before then . . . period.

Crops are another story. You "heard" corn is "very dry". Well let me tell you in Iowa, Indiana and Ohio the corn in the field is HUGE and as beautiful as a Kincaid oil painting. My neighbor has 85% of his 3000 acres planted in corn, my uncle and his sons have 75% of his 6500 acres planted in corn and so goes the entire area. Oklahoma and Texas are dry but they are always dry. Once they suck all the water from their aquifers they will be importing ALL their grain.

The only consistent "read" on the Ag Markets comes from the technicals, if you know what you are looking for, because they don't Think, Feel, Hope, Wonder, Wish, Assume, Guess, Anticipate, Predict, Envision, Imagine, Project, Sense or Surmise where prices are going . . . they KNOW!
More...


We(Texas) imort all of our grain now. Most of it comes off of the train. Texas weather does not have anything to do with the corn market. Annual rainfall for a big chunk of Texas is 35-40 inches. Not always dry. Large portions of the small Corn crop in Texas is for silage. Good to hear that the corn we'll be feeding appears to be plentiful and in excellent shape.
 
COF Report

53% of placements were below 700 lbs. Cattle going into feedyards smaller means smaller carcas weights in Nov-Dec-Jan and less cattle to slaughter in the Spring.

What is the largest marketing total ever recorded? Anybody know?
 
Quote from criveratrading:

joe, but those results are for feeders. where can one see the texas 79-79.5 trade u mentioned in live?
More...

Oh, you said auction. Fat cattle aren't sold at an auction around here. The volume for Texas fat cattle was 30,436. $79 to $79.50.
 
tks..

so what's ann's profit strategy if this is her take ?

Two words, kids: RANDOM WALK. Do any of you out there honestly believe that there are guys in smoke-filled rooms who are accurately forecasting all of this? There aren't. The only way a person can be consistently profitable in the cattle business is to completely turn his back on forecasting. Volatility yields amazing profit opportunity, UNLESS WE TRY TO FORECAST IT. If you try to guess the markets, you will be right back into the breakeven, 50-50 paradigm.
 
Quote from criveratrading:

tks..

so what's ann's profit strategy if this is her take ?

Two words, kids: RANDOM WALK. Do any of you out there honestly believe that there are guys in smoke-filled rooms who are accurately forecasting all of this? There aren't. The only way a person can be consistently profitable in the cattle business is to completely turn his back on forecasting. Volatility yields amazing profit opportunity, UNLESS WE TRY TO FORECAST IT. If you try to guess the markets, you will be right back into the breakeven, 50-50 paradigm.
More...

It's all about taking care of equity. She doesn't beleive in borrowed money. She compares what fats bring today against what a calf or feeder cost today. The transfer of equity from one to the other. I think she also trades alot of spreads. She won't elaborate on the spreads on her blog.
 
so with august futures trading at a steep premium to cash, what sort of convergence if any does one expect ? wouldn't it be of sense to deliver against the august contract rather than sell with this poor basis?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top