Aug Feeder Cattle.

Quote from criveratrading:

and 83.5 was softer than prior trade around 84 last week or am i wrong?

another thing i'm very interested in gauging is the amount of premium or discount futures can usually hold against cash. before the rally cash was hovering around 80 and futures were around 78 , now with cash around 83.5 futures are 85.5 . What is the "pull to cash" typical with this?

seems the funds added 30% to their net longs.
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Here are some links for cash, futures and basis:

http://www.ams.usda.gov/LSMNpubs/PDF_Daily/DCBS.pdf

http://www.ams.usda.gov/LSMNpubs/PDF_Daily/DFSS.pdf

http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/livestock/pdf/b2-42.pdf

http://www.lmic.info/

Basis is a function of contract month, market conditions and a host of other marketing and trading factors. For instance, if it is May 1st the futures contract I have to use expires on June 30. The basis will be wider (generally) because we have 60 days until expiration of futures. Cash trade on May 1 won't necessarily have a large impact on the futures.
 
Quote from criveratrading:

and 83.5 was softer than prior trade around 84 last week or am i wrong?

another thing i'm very interested in gauging is the amount of premium or discount futures can usually hold against cash. before the rally cash was hovering around 80 and futures were around 78 , now with cash around 83.5 futures are 85.5 . What is the "pull to cash" typical with this?

seems the funds added 30% to their net longs.
More...


It was mostly $1 lower this week. Most of the trade in South was at $84.50 last week.
 
Quote from joeallen:

Looks like it(DeMark) accurately nailed the low in LC on 04/04 or 04/05 with both a sequential and a countdown complete.
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It isn't so much about nailing it dead on but rather about indicating the highest probability moves.

I did check the charts on LC and we had a daily sequential then a countdown but cattle keep moving higher for sometime only to fail big time in January. On the weekly charts it was much clearer and did "nail it." The weeklies also caught the spring low very nicely.
 
Quote from joeallen:

now what?
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I was surprised by strength late in the session, to be really bearish I would have liked to see a close at or near the lows. ]

Bias is still negative.
 
sold my LC DEC 88 put at 325. 65 pt profit. wish I would've known the Goldman roll mishap with the imbalance of August contracts to buy and sell and the imbalance of October sales . Anyway, the market spoke to me and though I think bias is still negative, I took the money.

still have my october 114/112 put spread in feeders on.


not to contaminate the forum, but here is a nice setup in the peso. Time to buy dollars versus MXN says demark setup.
 

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