Aud/usd

think of australia as a big company, and the currency as shares in that company. And natural resources as assets, well those assets are appreciating worldwide, so similar to Canada, the currency seems more effected by commodity fluctuations. And those shares in that company appreciate.

its just a perception.
 
AUS well bid tonight on continued strong employment, stronger than expected I gather from the press.

When Europe and US open this session, I expect "adult supervision" to bear and knock down this spike -- back below .8300. I believe the factors for the six-cent move to this level, including stronger employment and interest rate differentials highly favoring AUS, have been priced in awhile.

P.S. I'll add that the above price action may occur even as gold advances. I expect gold to remake 700, perhaps as quickly as this week.

Shorting the interest differentials (AUS over YEN, AUS compared to US) while going long the driver of the differentials, which is inflation, ergo gold, might be an outstanding set up.

Comments? Anyone?
 
Chood,

I would agree with your analysis. However, I have a strong feeling the market will re-test/break the .8390 highs at least once before beginning a retreat to the .8000 level. If there is a retest (and we're only 60 pips away..), I don't want to be holding short going into it, rather ready to get short once the upward momentum wanes (once the existing shorts are broken).

Until then, I feel the probability favors the long side. I'm kicking myself for not jumping in long towards the .8230 low on Thursday (6PM EST, I was at dinner..). It shot up 50 pips just an hour later, then up over 100 on the overnight.. It took me 6 days of holding short from .8345 to see a similar return. The 'juice' is still with the longs on this one.

Taking a cue from NZD/USD tonight, the shorts have been building up on that one for a while, and one unexpected inflation number (retail sales) sends the kiwi flying again (AUD along with it). Waiting until the shorts are flushed out by a resistance/high break is the best time to enter.
 
Just another reminder why I don't trade metals:

Quote from Chood:

AUS well bid tonight on continued strong employment, stronger than expected I gather from the press.

When Europe and US open this session, I expect "adult supervision" to bear and knock down this spike -- back below .8300. I believe the factors for the six-cent move to this level, including stronger employment and interest rate differentials highly favoring AUS, have been priced in awhile.

P.S. I'll add that the above price action may occur even as gold advances. I expect gold to remake 700, perhaps as quickly as this week.

Shorting the interest differentials (AUS over YEN, AUS compared to US) while going long the driver of the differentials, which is inflation, ergo gold, might be an outstanding set up.

Comments? Anyone?
More...
 
I actually traded the AUD/CAD yesterday, short at 0.9120 and closed out just now at 0.9019. Pretty good trade. Not normally the pair I like to trade but found a good article by Jamie Saettle about that pair and the Elliot Wave. I\'ve been following his stuff for a while now and he\'s pretty good about finding setups. Anyone else ever trade this pair regularly?
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

It's ok, mate. I didn't listen to your advice and have been short silver since 13.50.
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Yes, but did you also fade the short AUS call?
 
It sure has been quiet around here. Hopefully everyone is on vacation and not broke. Shorting every time we hit .8500 stops and .8553, TP depends on your personal time horizon Mine is 1 one year from now when we are at .7200. Also going long USD/CAD between 1.0700 and 1.0675. If that falls anywhere below 1.0648 we should invade Canada and steal all their oil.

Why? Who knows, who cares
 
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