Aud/usd

I've just shorted heavily into the 8035. I think this rally is stupid, extreme and unjustified. I believe the belief in a hike from the RBA is foolish, and am going to take advantage of this insanity.

That being said, I know that "markets can remain irrational longer than investors can remain solvent", so I've made sure that this account has no other open pairs, and that the max drawdown it can stand is quite severe.

I don't like paying interest, but I cannot ignore such blatant silly moves like this one.
 
Ivanovich,

I wouldn't try to call a top on an 11-year breakout high. Neither the daily nor weekly RSI is in overbought territory yet, I think you may be jumping the gun from a r/r perspective.

This has been one of the hardest missed trades for me to swallow. I was too busy waiting for that perfect entry some 350 pips ago.. should have just entered in partially and kept averaging up.
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

Well, I guess we'll see. I have to go with what I think is right. I may, indeed, get stomped.
More...
Tell me you covered. .8145, no stopping this beast.
 
I think the Aussie is finally coming into a safe shorting zone around .8200. Bulls have hit long-term resistance at this level and daily ranges are narrowing. All indicators that I follow are in overbought territory, and MACD is nearing an apex.

I'm going to watch for another test of the highs to short, with a 50% exit target at the .8100 consolidation level and a trailing stop from there on out.

Ivanovich, are you still around?
 
Quote from Trader KGB:

I think the Aussie is finally coming into a safe shorting zone around .8200. Bulls have hit long-term resistance at this level and daily ranges are narrowing. All indicators that I follow are in overbought territory, and MACD is nearing an apex.

I'm going to watch for another test of the highs to short, with a 50% exit target at the .8100 consolidation level and a trailing stop from there on out.

Ivanovich, are you still around?
More...

Guys, I'm chomping at the bit to short AUD/USD. But the situation, fundamentally, especially with rates in the States, is so unsettled that it's a 50/50 bet in my book whether the Aussie is going to continue this tear or if this is a comfortable place to short a (intermediate) top. I have a small (risk-wise) short position on the FXA ETF and may increase it; I'll get my money back -- at some point. But for futures and Forex, I'm not willing to take that kind of leveraged bet -- yet -- without a little better sense of what the Fed is going to do. Hey, 50/50 odds I can get in Vegas, or almost.

Wake me at 83 and change. Meantime, good luck.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top