Aud/usd

[Ivanovich]

AUD/USD historically has had serious problems maintaining above 7900. The RBA is a known seller of Aussie above that level. Don't know how long they can keep that up, but in general, 7900 is a take profit level. As I have just done.

 

[Trader KGB]

Quote from Trader KGB:

Tell me about it. I should have just picked this up at .7760 last Thursday when I first noticed the bull flag. I've been waiting for a retracement to the trendline ever since, meanwhile it's soared another 120 ticks...

Well the retracement to the trendline came Tuesday evening, but I was busy and missed a good entry. Up another 100..

 

[Ivanovich]

Will be interesting to see if it can break the historical level, but even if it does, I'm not sure it can hold it. Looking tired.

 

[Ivanovich]

I'm going short here. Might be a bad idea, but it's near all time highs. Risk reward ratio is quite nice.

 

[Trader KGB]

Quote from Ivanovich:

I'm going short here. Might be a bad idea, but it's near all time highs. Risk reward ratio is quite nice.

From a technical standpoint, I'd say the risk of shorting is quite high. It broke out from the bull flag, while RSI and Full Stochs are not in overbought territory. I still can't believe this is up 300 pips in the past week and a half..

 

[Spectre2007]

Getting a buy signal too.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/AD/M
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/AD/W
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/AD/37

the problem is if everyone else is seeing this information the banks will run stops, on longs tryin to position.

The attachment lists LR linear regression lines, the red lines represent 2.618 standard deviations. So if your looking to get long .7715 would be ideal to flush out longs.

 

[Ivanovich]

Historically, going short at the 80 barrier has been a fantastic play, regardless of signals, bull flags or rhetoric. However, if "it's different this time", then it's different and I get stopped out. Which is more likely?

Check the last link in Spectre's post.

Risk/Reward.

 

[Spectre2007]

These are the historical signals using a custom designed system. I had for AUD for the last few years.

Long/4-19-02/.4505/sold/6-4-02/.4868
Long/8-21-02/.4615/sold/1-21-03/.5099
Long/2-21-03/.5240/sold/5-7-03/.5697
Long/7-2-03/.6097/sold/11-14-03/.6599
Long/12-31-03/.6959/sold/2-18-04/.7441
Long/4-1-04/.7171/sold/3-10-06/.7269
Short/3-10-06/.7269/covered/4-12-06/.7249
Long/4-12-06/.7249/sold/11-29-06/.7798
Long/11-30-06/.7839/------/3-16-07/.7944

From the point of signal generation to exit large drawdowns can occur, the drawdown so far has been of 24% maximum from all the above signals.

 

[Trader KGB]

Quote from Spectre2007:


From the point of signal generation to exit large drawdowns can occur, the drawdown so far has been of 24% maximum from all the above signals.

Did you employ any leverage in the above trades?

 

[Spectre2007]

its 1 cme/IMM futures contract.