Aud/usd

Quote from AnnaFX:

I'm sorry about the aud chood, is this support for your current prediction?
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Not sure if I understand the reply. I don't have any position currently. The AUS longs mentioned in the earlier post were closed at a loss in January. (That info is back some pages this thread. I probably should have deleted the mention.)

Now, I'm simply looking for a bargain, expecting a chance this week to long the AUS future 100 ticks and better (meaning lower) than present price.
 
Quote from Chood:

. . .
Now, I'm simply looking for a bargain, expecting a chance this week to long the AUS future 100 ticks and better (meaning lower) than present price.
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I'm still convinced AUS will trade lower this week, lower even than this session's low of .7678, which is 18 ticks above my initial planned "bargain" long entry. Drop could occur in a blink.

Readjusting my avg-in entries to .7635 .--20 and .--10 given today's preview drop to .7678. I expect nothing substantial underneath that price, and not until AUS approaches 7600.

Will take on up to six at or better than the entries shown.

The ride ain't over.
 
Quote from Chood:

I'm still convinced AUS will trade lower this week, lower even than this session's low of .7678, which is 18 ticks above my initial planned "bargain" long entry. Drop could occur in a blink.

Readjusting my avg-in entries to .7635 .--20 and .--10 given today's preview drop to .7678. I expect nothing substantial underneath that price, and not until AUS approaches 7600.

Will take on up to six at or better than the entries shown.

The ride ain't over.
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American perspective here from someone living in Sydney; fundamentally, I think your best chances for a long-term trend upward for AUD will come again this year, when the pressure on the Fed to cut rates really increases, could even be this summer (northern). The fear of a recession is really in the air in the states now. Short-term? It's chaos and Yen-driven. I'll stand on the sidelines and wait for the trend to develop (and go to extremes) rather than gamble. Like many, I just didnt think a .25 rise by the BoJ would have such sharp consequences, especially in the GBP, as well as the NZD and AUD. Just my three cents.
 
Nice bounce in AUS on rosy forecast and comments by RBA banker. I'm selling into it. Tight stop just above .7800. Still expecting fall under .7700 (even to .7600).
 
AUS front month future tops out this session not too much above my sale of two overnight, despite RBA comments -- into which I sold -- and GDP data surprising high.

I'll take any profit I can get (smash and grab) at or just under .7710, which won't be better than a 1 to 1 reward/risk. Suffering seller's remorse after that GDP data. On the other hand, since that positive news didn't stop me out -- even with tight stop -- table is set for more price action south of today's top.

Quote from Chood:

Nice bounce in AUS on rosy forecast and comments by RBA banker. I'm selling into it. Tight stop just above .7800. Still expecting fall under .7700 (even to .7600).
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Quote from Chood:

. . .Of the various knives falling, I believe Aussie will be easiest to catch. Various reasons. So, I will buy the front-month future down at .7660 or so, 25 ticks lower than that, and then again at .7615. Those could print in a blink, so this will be dice rolling of the first order. Stops down in the mid to low .7500s.

Aussie at .7600 could look like .7880 after the wreckage.
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Talk about missing the train. Shortly after the above post, AUS traded down to within 18 ticks of my bargain entry. It's now close to the .7880 forecast.
 
Quote from Chood:

. . .Of the various knives falling, I believe Aussie will be easiest to catch.
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Betting on reversal just generates losses. 9 out of 10 you generate losses, the one time you predict the reversal correctly. I think betting on reversals is a losing strategy.
 
Quote from Chood:

Talk about missing the train. Shortly after the above post, AUS traded down to within 18 ticks of my bargain entry. It's now close to the .7880 forecast.
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Tell me about it. I should have just picked this up at .7760 last Thursday when I first noticed the bull flag. I've been waiting for a retracement to the trendline ever since, meanwhile it's soared another 120 ticks...
 

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