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Aud/usd
- Thread starter BigFunky
- Start date
I've been in and out over the last two days and scalped a few hundred bucks, being long here and there, for a few hours. I'm new to the AUD/US futures contract and don't have electronic access to options on this one, so I can't hedge a long-only position, which I do unless I am of very firm commitment and markets appear to be in extremis. I'm also -- here is the Yank in me, mates -- hesitant to bet mid-term against the dollar, despite all the fundamental reasons; I'll leave the technical to you. I have -- go ahead and laugh -- that typically American dismay that the US dollar has diminished so around the world. I can recall working with some Aussies in 2000/2001, and they couldn't afford to do an offsite in the U.S. because the AUD was at like .38 or something; this was back when countries were demonitizing gold @ @260 an oz. or something. So, bottom line guys, I'm happy to take some Christmas present money here and there, and if the AUD gets much above 80 I may take a medium-term short position. Once I get over to Sydney and get into the flow a bit more on the currency, the news, etc. I may do more. The lack of electronically traded options on futures for the AUD/US is a deterrent for me, though. Much prefer the EUR/US and Cable.
Meantime, thanks for the iPods and Merry Chrissy.
NR
Meantime, thanks for the iPods and Merry Chrissy.
NR
Quote from Chood:
On board?
Quote from Chood:
I appreciate the risk of an Aussie play: the door for speculators is much smaller for it than for the majors, hence a greater likelihood and fear it may crowd more quickly. You could suffer or benefit from a startling move at any time.
Hence the need for options on futures. I use Interactive Brokers, which is about as good as a retail product as you can get. But there are no exchange-traded (eletronically) options on AUD/US futures that I am aware of, at least for US investors. I can RFQ, but I'm going to get a lousy price; I'm not sure if this is because of liquidity or brokers being brokers. Maybe with all the merging of exchanges and going electronic this will change in the not-too-distant future.
Quote from Chood:
I got a couple of other changed expectations up my sleeve, which should resolve long Aussie. BOJ won't raise and won't signal raise next month . . .
Dang if those fellas at Bloomberg's aren't dead on. Here's today's post mortem on BOJ's announcement Tuesday:
Dec. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The yen dropped to lowest in more than a month against the dollar and touched a record low versus the euro as speculation waned that the Bank of Japan will boost borrowing costs next quarter.
The yen also hit a nine-year low against the Australian dollar and earlier dropped against the British pound to the weakest since 1998. Traders cut bets on a rate increase after the Japanese central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.25 percent and suggested weakness in the economy yesterday.
``The BOJ is a lot more dovish,'' said Brian Taylor, chief currency trader at Manufacturers & Traders Trust in Buffalo, New York. ``People are borrowing yen to buy other higher-yielding currencies. The yen definitely got hit.''