AUD trading oppty

Quote from oldtime:

yes, average hold is about 8 days, many times if things stall I take the other side for a few days, or even a few hours, sometimes only minutes.

The price I pay for that luxury is trading small

I am very rarely more than 50% margin committed
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cool so on average, weekly trades.

Good China PMI tonight = shot at 0550 and TP's.... I would then say we see it trade back down ahead of the main events. That's my call lol.

Bad China data... should hook you up a bit going into the events.
 
working out of losses

no I never actually work out of them I just take them

They can be quite large

much more than I ever would have endured when I was using stops

The idea is for my winners all combined to be more than that one big loser

I would like to see one big winner more than my one big loser

but most the time it is a lot of smaller winners outpacing the one big loser

Martingale is the only system that has no risk of ruin, as long as you have no betting limit and an infinite supply of money

No, once a loss starts to develope, it usually only gets worse, averaging down can help, and it does most of the time, but still in the end, I take the loss
 
Quote from contra:

cool so on average, weekly trades.

Good China PMI tonight = shot at 0550 and TP's.... I would then say we see it trade back down ahead of the main events. That's my call lol.

Bad China data... should hook you up a bit going into the events.
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yes, until they let me trade the yuan, AUD is just it's slave. As China goes, so does AUD

thanks for the heads up
 
Quote from oldtime:

but most the time it is a lot of smaller winners outpacing the one big loser
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lol, the total opposite of the old adage, let your winners run and cut losses.

Martingale is the only system that has no risk of ruin, as long as you have no betting limit and an infinite supply of money
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LOL indeed.

Well I'm sure there is a method to your madness haha, but I am of the school of thought that risk is most important here. Id rather work out a plan with a reason and if it doesn't work out, the trade is wrong and I take the loss, thats where the stop goes. This is done before the entry and is more important. Targets are more discretionary but the reason and timing is also. I took the loss on my aussie punt, and I gotta tell you I'm not gonna lose any sleep over it, it's just one trade. I can enter at a better time, and the risks are great here this week.

I sleep better knowing I have my risk set then not.

I like to go for swings or work something with ATR on the daily or 4hr for a day trade. This is the way to go for me in FX anyway.
 
depending on where we are at i might put a buy limit above market for a shot at 0550 on china data


to guys calling trades where are your stops? (except oldtime)

are you guys running similar strategies?

0361 target (weekly open/gap level), im guessing around 0550-0600
 
after the China data... another punt :)

if you can't beat em'... try and get in where you fit in...

will be watching closely...
 

Attachments

She doesn't want to crack. Bets off breakeven. (Well, little better, but who cares.) Try again at the next resistances of 1.0614 or 1.0785.

I thought the fed announcement was Thursday... Not Wednesday... Hmm... Looks like AUD is going to the moon on QE3 tomorrow already and doesn't have the time to drop.
 
Quote from oldtime:

it's already showing me a small quick profit, but you got that right, even if it moves in your favor that short AUD/USD is expensive to hold, and I hold overnight

I have a limit in to sell some more at 608, I kind of work in 100 pip increments, and that has been consistently profitable for me

one of these days it will get me

I got tired of getting stopped out and taking hunderds of small losses, and decided I would rather take one big loss. It comes out about the same. And my big loss has always been in short AUD/USD.
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I work in smaller increments than that. There is money in them thar wicks! Of course, this means you have to check back fairly often.:)
 
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