AUD Traders

J

jplazard

Hello Everyone,

I really don’t post much on here but I am hoping to gain some insight or hear the opposite side argument on the AUD

I have been heavily short the AUD since 1.07 and have added to a full line on Thursday looking for a profit range of 1.02-parity. Technically it’s breaking down and the fundamentals are starting to materialize with the housing, mining jobs cuts and commodities across the board looking to grind lower for the next couple months.
I also believe that next month the RBA will not raise rates which will further depress the Aussie. Now with Geitner jawboning and Euro still looking uncertain will the market look for the interest rate differential in which case my aud position is not valid anymore?

Also I know the dollar has had a nice bounce and i have done well with USD/CHF but if this ceiling is raised without any significant cuts than the dollar should naturally continue back in its downtrend right?

If there are any AUD traders out there that understands the dynamics of their economy or If I am missing out on some key information why this position is flawed I’m all ears. I do know that the dollar long term is terrible compared to the Aud but short term I see a different picture. Thank you for the input

LAZARD
 
Right I'm short the future but I really feel like rates will not be raised next month on several reasons, but minutes are tonight so lets see if I feel more confident about a move or if I need to cut back and reevaluate.
 
rba already 2x talking up aud in last couple of days in face of bad housing news. wtf!

Considering to go long aud on break in adus,euad.
housing may not necessary collapse aud as (controlled) correction is now desired ie supported by media.
 
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