AUD/NZD ready to tank bad ?

S

stephane

AUD/NZD broke down a bearish flag on the D Timeframe. And it is near its historical low
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If I remember correctly my Murphy's technical analysis bible, we may expect it to drop by the flag's pole distance -that means around 1000 pips-. that should send it into new bearish land where that pair never set its foot.
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So next time I enter a short on AUDNZD, (and my chart suggest it is going to be pretty soon), I will let a tiny part of the trade open when I met my TP. Just in case....
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stephane said:
AUD/NZD broke down a bearish flag on the D Timeframe. And it is near its historical low
sad.gif


View attachment 149033

If I remember correctly my Murphy's technical analysis bible, we may expect it to drop by the flag's pole distance -that means around 1000 pips-. that should send it into new bearish land where that pair never set its foot.
cheesy.gif


So next time I enter a short on AUDNZD, (and my chart suggest it is going to be pretty soon), I will let a tiny part of the trade open when I met my TP. Just in case....
wink.gif
More...

Been long for a few weeks now and watched my profits vanish. I think I'll hold for a little longer.
 
Update. The pair to come back but is now lazzily ranging around H4 SMA200/50 fib line resistance. I am watching the 50 fib resistance level for a potential short (SMA20 is getting there too as a resistance). A break out of the 1,05 support level would make it too. I usually wait for pull back before entering a break out but I may do an exception here.
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What next ? I am now running at +35 and be.
I did not close any, for I am hoping for a serious move because there was a daily bearish flag that was broken. On the daily I see several support zones to the low. 1,445 where roughly there is a fib line (786), and a former broken low, then 1,44 with a second fib line (,886) and the ADR. Assuming we got there, I will consider closing some of it if I got a bullish reversal figure on m15 around 1,445, and will close all the if I got any serious reversal figure around 1,44. Let us go.

SmokingAces, how will you manage your short ?

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I wil update that one.

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I still hold a tiny part of the short I opened last week (a so called Livermoore runner). The pair opened the week with a bearish gap clearly under 1,04. It did restest that gap during the week, then staid within a consolidation triangle. It broke down that triangle yesterday and is now retesting it. I still do not know whether to enter short on a bearish signals at that level, for I would prefer to see it retracing more a little bit first.
On the other side, within the triangle, the two last bearish H4 candles look pretty healthy, and the pressure to the upside very weak.
 
And another update. Although we got a 80 pips bearish move this week, we ended the weekly with a hammer. I closed my livermoore runner and now I am rather thinking long until I see a strong BEARISH reversal figure somewhere up there (1,0455 or higher). For now on AUDNZD a "buy dips" strategy is in place as long as we are above 1,03.

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