Quote from vanv0029:
I am not making any money (maybe a tiny amount) on my butterfly
spreads because the market seems to have bipolar disorder. Up when
the news should send it down. Down when news should send it up.
I would have had a great week if I had held my flys.
I closed my Mar 28 SPX iron butterfly (1585/1565/1545) on Monday for some
profit. I would have made 5x more profit if I had held until today, but I
also would have been in the red on some of the days in between.
I took a small loss on my NFLX Apr. 5 205/185/165 put butterfly
when NFLX looked like it was going to 200 on Wednesday. It then
retreated so I should have held. I should have not closed it since
it was still 10 days from expiration, I think.
I chickened out and pulled my order for a 185/175/170 CRM butterfly which
would have worked because I was not sure about moving my normal mid point
up from my previously good 180/170/160 flies.
I did make some profit on a GLD 158/155/152 March 28 put fly because it
just sat around at 155 but posiition was way to small.
My thinking is that I do not dare hold butterflys when they hit the
wings or into expiration day because spread turns into basically
a +/-1.0 delta bet.
Anyone have some rules to use?