atticus' "ship it" vol trading journal

Took2Summit · Nov 8, 2012

Quote from atticus:

You ignored the bet. So you lost double; once in opportunity on the wager and you admittedly didn't short AAPL.

The best was yes or no to a touch of $550. You avoided it. There is no need for a counter as a wager on a touch is an explicit bid for a hit and an offer against a hit. Adding an upside target is ANOTHER DISTINCT wager and superfluous as the "short touch" takes care of the upside. cdcaveman and other tried to explain it to you on the thread, but it was over your head.

page 48 on the apple:buying the dips! thread
I wrote:

"i mean, i'd be willing to make a bet but its not just going to be whether im right or wrong. you need to make a call as well that I disagree with, and if neither one of us are right then the bet is a push.

otherwise that's the easiest bet in the world for you to take. apple has already fallen $110-115 and im calling for another $45 fall, while your stance is it just won't happen?"

and a bet can have many stipulations. i told you id be willing to bet apple would hit 550 if you would make a counter bet, to which you never replied, which like i said im fine with. and the counter bet had to be a long price target.

but please dont call me a liar.

but yes you are right, i would not take a pure straight bet that apple hits 550, however i asked you to provide a counter bet that i would take. and you never took that.

atticus · Nov 8, 2012

Quote from Took2Summit:

page 48 on the apple:buying the dips! thread
I wrote:

"i mean, i'd be willing to make a bet but its not just going to be whether im right or wrong. you need to make a call as well that I disagree with, and if neither one of us are right then the bet is a push.

otherwise that's the easiest bet in the world for you to take. apple has already fallen $110-115 and im calling for another $45 fall, while your stance is it just won't happen?"

and a bet can have many stipulations. i told you id be willing to bet apple would hit 550 if you would make a counter bet, to which you never replied, which like i said im fine with.

but please dont call me a liar.

No, you're ignorant. I stated you ignored the bet by offering preconditions which simply doubled the wager, and adding an upside target is meaningless as the bet is a bullish call (my short touch to your touch).

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3662169&highlight=bet#post3662169

Read southall's reply again.

So you come here to gloat after losing the wager (loss of opp) and compounding the error by not taking a short position in the underlying.

Took2Summit · Nov 8, 2012

Quote from atticus:

No, you're ignorant. I stated you ignored the bet by offering preconditions which simply doubled the wager.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3662169&highlight=bet#post3662169

Read southall's reply again.

why exactly can a bet not have preconditions? you offered one bet, i offered another. neither one of us accepted either.

i also dont get why i try and not name call or anything and just provide facts but you instantly lose your temper, name call, and fling shit.

atticus · Nov 8, 2012

Quote from Took2Summit:

why exactly can a bet not have preconditions? you offered one bet, i offered another.

No, you stated you would accept it if I would take an "upside target". You don't understand the touch market and attempted to double it up w/o knowing you were doing so.

Stop cluttering the thread.

Took2Summit · Nov 8, 2012

Quote from atticus:

No, you're ignorant. I stated you ignored the bet by offering preconditions which simply doubled the wager, and adding an upside target is meaningless as the bet is a bullish call (my short touch to your touch).

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3662169&highlight=bet#post3662169

Read southall's reply again.

So you come here to gloat after losing the wager (loss of opp) and compounding the error by not taking a short position in the underlying.

haha wow, you should work in the media, you're actually going to spin my 550 call, you saying it would never happen. it happening. as me losing a wager.

atticus · Nov 8, 2012

Quote from Took2Summit:

i also dont get why i try and not name call or anything and just provide facts but you instantly lose your temper, name call, and fling shit.

If you'd stop editing we could finish this here. I can't fix stupid, so I suggest you read cdcave's and southall's reply. And cdcaveman has been trading this stuff for less than a year.

Took2Summit · Nov 8, 2012

Quote from atticus:

No, you stated you would accept it if I would take an "upside target". You don't understand the touch market and attempted to double it up w/o knowing you were doing so.

Stop cluttering the thread.

i guess you don't bet very often? this is what i was proposing

me: hey atticus i think apple will hit 550

you: hey took2summit i think not, lets bet

me: okay, i bet $100 apple will not hit 638 (i think thats the number you said by the holidays?) , if you will bet $100 it will not hit 550. if apple never hits either 550 or 638, neither one of us lose. if apple hits 550 first i will 100, if it hits 638 first you win 100.

im done posting here, but that is the bet i was trying to propose that you never responded to. which is a fine bet. you wanted to simplify it and just bet it hitting 550, which i said i wouldnt do.

atticus · Nov 8, 2012

Quote from Took2Summit:

haha wow, you should work in the media, you're actually going to spin my 550 call, you saying it would never happen. it happening. as me losing a wager.

Anyone can read the thread. You lost by failing to take the bet. You lost by not acting on your conviction to short the shares.

It's akin to making a bet on Obama to win but requiring me to make another distinct bet on Romney to win... when it's explicit in the original bet. It's moronic because it's simply doubling the notional at risk, without realizing you're doing so.

atticus · Nov 8, 2012

Quote from Took2Summit:

i guess you don't bet very often? this is what i was proposing

me: hey atticus i think apple will hit 550

you: hey took2summit i think not, lets bet

me: okay, i bet $100 apple will not hit 638 (i think thats the number you said by the holidays?) , if you will bet $100 it will not hit 550. if apple never hits either 550 or 638, neither one of us lose. if apple hits 550 first i will 100, if it hits 638 first you win 100.

im done posting here, but that is the bet i was trying to propose that you never responded to. which is a fine bet. you wanted to simplify it and just bet it hitting 550, which i said i wouldnt do.

Please continue to post as your head has nearly reached your prostate.

Took2Summit · Nov 8, 2012

Quote from atticus:

Please continue to post as your head has nearly reached your postate.

this is a famous bet by cody willard and donald trump jr, it was on TV. the guidelines in this bet are what i was trying to propose:

"A couple years ago when oil had spiked and was at $130 or so, I once confidently bet Donald Trump Jr on national TV that oil would see the $30s before itâd see $150. In fact, his brazen bullishness on the commodity at that point emboldened me in a contrarianism kind of way. Oil peaked at $147 and subsequently dropped to $35 and I won that bet. You know what the payoff was supposed to be? His inheritance against mine. He hasnât tracked me down to pay off. Anyway, Iâd rather see Donald Trump saying gold is going to $10,000 an ounce instead of being in my camp as a gold bear. I am still waiting to re-enter my GLD short. Now Iâll probably wait longer. Sigh."

found here: http://wallstreetallstars.com/five-must-read-articles-for-every-investor-this-weekend/

EDIT: there were two price points, the first one to hit would win, which is exactly what i was trying to propose. Except with a cut off point of the holidays.

for the love of god why do you have to keep talking so much shit? we are both profitable traders. i was not trying to shit talk you, infact i kind of defended you when i said you didnt reply which was fine with me.