atticus' "ship it" vol trading journal

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Quote from atticus:

Right I run the marked price against a theoretical flat-vol fly of the same strikes. I use the PF to give me a dollar figure on index skew.
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theoretical flat-vol...Numerically.. flat vol...skew=0 smile=0
. i'm going to read this thread and see if i can make sense of how this three put one call pitch fork translates into a good representation of dollar skew.. my first thought is.. that if flat vol is 0 dollars.. using the straddle.. or some combination of short vol at the money.. IE pitchfork would give you a sort of index of skew to continually work from in dollars.. so you could continually graph, compare, etc skew values in dollars over time..

i've been theorizing about how to map some option volatility metric to actual realizing volalitity in one graph.. meaning.. if i take some bollinger bandwidth delta. or some other indicator of standard devs.. Keltner Channels.... literally take the delta of the indicator (difference between the band and the moving average) and chart it against some implied vol.. the implied vol would have to be taken from a static delta point of view... meaning ATM would have to be exactly at the money or would have to be calculated to be.. Dollar skew would be interesting..

i have an indicator that measures trending volatility of one member against another.. IE... RSI of ATR(apple)/ against RSI of ATR(SPX) ... and as well.. ATR(aapl)/ATR(SPX)

OBVIOUSLY I HAVE A TENDENCY TO OVER COMPLICATE :)

wouldn't these guys with large books have a complete cross book of index options and constituents?
 
Quote from cdcaveman:


i have an indicator that measures trending volatility of one member against another.. IE... RSI of ATR(apple)/ against RSI of ATR(SPX) ... and as well.. ATR(aapl)/ATR(SPX)

OBVIOUSLY I HAVE A TENDENCY TO OVER COMPLICATE :)

wouldn't these guys with large books have a complete cross book of index options and constituents?
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I assume you update this is excel. If so, why? What exactly does it tell you to do?
 
Quote from Doobs789:

Thanks for the update. I should have got out near the open, but didn't. Waiting for a small bounce into the low 590s.
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Got my bounce. Out of the 610 calendar at 6.30. And the 610 fly at 3.30. Still holding the 600 fly.

EDIT: Out of the 600 fly at 4.30. No positions in AAPL currently.
 
Quote from atticus:

I assume you update this is excel. If so, why? What exactly does it tell you to do?
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how far ahead of, or behind the trend in volatility is in the single issue compared to the index..comparing the trend in vol to the index's trend gives you a relative sense of how strong or weak a trend is relatively..
just another thing to confuse myself with.. :) does anyone use bollinger bands or any other TA of standard devs or ATR to visual vol being realized?
 
Quote from cdcaveman:

theoretical flat-vol...Numerically.. flat vol...skew=0 smile=0
. i'm going to read this thread and see if i can make sense of how this three put one call pitch fork translates into a good representation of dollar skew.. my first thought is.. that if flat vol is 0 dollars.. using the straddle.. or some combination of short vol at the money.. IE pitchfork would give you a sort of index of skew to continually work from in dollars.. so you could continually graph, compare, etc skew values in dollars over time..

i've been theorizing about how to map some option volatility metric to actual realizing volalitity in one graph.. meaning.. if i take some bollinger bandwidth delta. or some other indicator of standard devs.. Keltner Channels.... literally take the delta of the indicator (difference between the band and the moving average) and chart it against some implied vol.. the implied vol would have to be taken from a static delta point of view... meaning ATM would have to be exactly at the money or would have to be calculated to be.. Dollar skew would be interesting..

i have an indicator that measures trending volatility of one member against another.. IE... RSI of ATR(apple)/ against RSI of ATR(SPX) ... and as well.. ATR(aapl)/ATR(SPX)

OBVIOUSLY I HAVE A TENDENCY TO OVER COMPLICATE :)

wouldn't these guys with large books have a complete cross book of index options and constituents?
More...
wouldnt they likely take the core principles of volatility and apply it to both as one equation and then use that equation against each instrument seperately
 
Quote from ammo:

wouldnt they likely take the core principles of volatility and apply it to both as one equation and then use that equation against each instrument seperately
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core principles of volatility. you mean in a typical outright historical vol against implied vol in the most typical equations ...i think that is how we all are looking at it?
 
Quote from cdcaveman:

core principles of volatility. you mean in a typical outright historical vol against implied vol in the most typical equations ...i think that is how we all are looking at it?
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I don't make IV/HV bets.
 
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