atticus' "ship it" vol trading journal

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Quote from atticus:

I think there is more in Jan13 so I went long a 1/2 position in the 510/610/710 from 42.80 risk.
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Vol didn't come in as much I thought in Jan. So yeah there maybe more left in there.

Looking at a play for next week's expiry as well.
 
Quote from atticus:

I think there is more in Jan13 so I went long a 1/2 position in the 510/610/710 from 42.80 risk.
More...

With such a far in the future fly are you just chasing a slight amount of theta with the middle so close to the current price and/or is the idea to hold this fly for several months with the wide wings hoping with the thought that it is anywhere around the middle you will just hold into expiration?
 
Quote from MentalTunnel:

With such a far in the future fly are you just chasing a slight amount of theta with the middle so close to the current price and/or is the idea to hold this fly for several months with the wide wings hoping with the thought that it is anywhere around the middle you will just hold into expiration?
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Not theta, vega. I was within a dime of predicting the fly price today ($42), as well as the 26% vol in Nov. Not patting myself on the back, but I trade a lot of vol. I think it's got to go a bit lower.
 
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