atticus' "ship it" vol trading journal

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thinking about this...

VIXY DEC 21 '12 - (2) 17 + (1) 19 + (1) 14 Put Combo for .05 to .10 cents

say you buy ten of them.. its a 5 dollar bet.. with five hundred in margin...
with a possible payout of up to 2 dollars... just figure on at most 1.50 cause no one usually gets full amount.. probabiliy is low enough on a perfect strike pin.. and most likely if your in big profit like your up to a dollar.. i would close.. you could turn 50 bucks into a 1000... and you can only lose 50 bucks on the upside.. and the very worse case senario 500 bucks if the vixy makes well through the short strike.. this has roll cost going for it.. if vol stays flat i think this will work.. any thoughts?
 
Quote from atticus:

I think the condor will show to be a bad idea (over the calendar) simply as I think it will flip on delta.
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Yeah could be. Maybe move up a strike on each leg?
 
Quote from atticus:

Then the 15/35/55 fly is preferable, IMO.
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I'm in that one as well from 6.20 (7.40 mid now)

I have so many positions in AAPL right now, its getting confusing.
 
Quote from Doobs789:

I'm in that one as well from 6.20 (7.40 mid now)

I have so many positions in AAPL right now, its getting confusing.
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lol yes. I am in that call fly as well from 6.20 from last week.
 
Quote from Doobs789:

I'm in that one as well from 6.20 (7.40 mid now)

I have so many positions in AAPL right now, its getting confusing.
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that takes a total of only two flys for me and i'lll mix up everything haha.. have you thrown it into tos or hoadly and looked at it?
 
Quote from cdcaveman:

thinking about this...

VIXY DEC 21 '12 - (2) 17 + (1) 19 + (1) 14 Put Combo for .05 to .10 cents

say you buy ten of them.. its a 5 dollar bet.. with five hundred in margin...
with a possible payout of up to 2 dollars... just figure on at most 1.50 cause no one usually gets full amount.. probabiliy is low enough on a perfect strike pin.. and most likely if your in big profit like your up to a dollar.. i would close.. you could turn 50 bucks into a 1000... and you can only lose 50 bucks on the upside.. and the very worse case senario 500 bucks if the vixy makes well through the short strike.. this has roll cost going for it.. if vol stays flat i think this will work.. any thoughts?
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has anyone read this?
 
Quote from cdcaveman:

has anyone read this?
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Yeah, it's just ok, IMO. I can't get too excited about a Dec spread in Oct. I have some deep duration stuff but I don't even look at it unless vol drops a ton in a week. The symmetric fly is $0.80 mid (14/17/20) which is meh.. You're not going to see gains quickly if vol collapses as you're asym (BWB) here, but it's how I would structure it as you don't want the upside risk to the debit.

Nov and Dec vols are not great. The neutral Nov fly looks terrible here, so I would probably avoid this one.
 
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